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Folded Aces

 
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Folded Aces - Tue Mar 29, 2011, 09:06 AM
(#1)
darkwolves's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 10
BronzeStar
So, I think I made the right play, but I would like to see what everyone else thinks here.

Some background info: The villain had been at the table for 68 hands. Stats 28 / 0. AF: 4.3. Also possibly relevant is that he was silver star.

Additionally, my table image was very tight, I think around 8/8 at the time. I'm not really sure he even took that into account a 2nl, but never hurts to consider it.



Not much additionally to add. After he called the turn I figured he must have a hand. I interpenetrated his river donk bet as him not wanting me to get a chance to check behind, which I probably would have done if he checked to me again. Can't imagine I would have gotten many worse hands to call a river bet in that spot.

I put him on QJ. Or possibly KJ. I think both make sense for how he played the hand. But as he was never the preflop raiser for as long as I played him, a hand like QQ or JJ is possible, I guess.
 
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Tue Mar 29, 2011, 11:43 AM
(#2)
o0o0AcEo0o0's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 218
BronzeStar
I think this was on okay lay down. The texture of that board probably hit his limp/call range hard from the position he was in. He could have had hands like KQ QT too, but since he was a tight player I feel that it is an okay lay down. Dunno if I would have been able to get away from it in 2nl though haha
 
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Tue Mar 29, 2011, 12:00 PM
(#3)
EA2USN's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 176
BronzeStar
68 hands and he is a 28% VI$P and 0 PFR. So he is semi-loose passive preflop and shows some aggression after the flop. He very well could of had AJ also or AQ or KK and Didnt figure u for having a jack. I think it was a marginal fold I probably would of called him for the $1. Figure there are 169 starting hands and he is playing 28% of them so his range would be the top 47 hands. Which is pretty wide.

Only other comment I have is your turn bet probably should have been more.
 
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Tue Mar 29, 2011, 03:39 PM
(#4)
darkwolves's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 10
BronzeStar
thanks for the replies. I have been going over it with the Poker Odds Calculator in PSO (I'm on my work computer and don't have poker stove). It looks like this really depends on what hands I believe he makes this move with.

I originally but him on something like KJ, QJ, QQ, JJ, or even 66. As EA2USN points out, AJ is also possible.

There are also some hands where he might do this that I have beat, but nearly all these hands become bluffs in this case: KK, AQ, QT, KQ. During the hand I had considered QT, but decided that I did not believe he was bluffing, and had too many other hands in his range that had me beat.

Now if I include all these types of hands, I definitely should have called here as my equity is almost 50/50.
 
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Tue Mar 29, 2011, 06:01 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
AK will often reraise from the blinds. He most likely had QQ, TT, or 66 and filled up on the river. He would have reraised you on the turn had a blank hit, but he was worried you had AK and J gave you a straight. His big river bet into you is very strong and screams that he is not the least bit concerned what 2 cards you are holding. If he had AK he would be afraid of a full house on river, so that leaves the only other possibility which is QQ, TT, or 66 for a full house.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 10:09 PM..
 
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Tue Mar 29, 2011, 10:00 PM
(#6)
EndlessMyk's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 33
BronzeStar
I would like to take the opportunity for me to learn from your hand. So I would like some additional dialog, if possible:

The first thing that I noticed is that you are at a .01 / .02 table. I have experienced two types of people at this table (maybe more, I just haven't realized it yet). The first type of person is 'general' player. They've either deposited the min. deposit into their account, and theye're using the cheapest of the micro-tables to get their feet wet, OR, they've earned a few small payouts here and there from freerolls, and they can finally play a ringed-table. The second type of person that I've ran into is the 'general' player who has poor bankroll management, and that's all they can afford to play without redepositing into there account.

Why is this important to me? Most players that I am aware of are either calling stations or overly aggressive. And, lastly (most important to me), most players in this micro-table are way too honest.

I loved your raise PF, I would have followed it verbatim. The villain is willing to pay to play, so I give him any broadway, any pair, Kx s+, based on my experiences at the micro table. On the flop, however, I noticed that not only do you have high pair, the board does not have an immediate flush opportunity. Runner runner flush at best. The flop does offer a KJ,J9,78 open-ended straight draw, and other runner runner straights. Knowning the villain called an 4xBB raise, I do not put him on any straight draws save the possibility he has KJ. In my opinion, because this is a micro-table and I feel players have looser hole cards, I definitly would not eliminate the villain having a KJ at all.

Given the possibility the villain has KJ, and viewing the board from his perspective, then he'd have 8 outs for the open-ended straights. He'd also have 3 additional outs using his K that would give him a higher pair above Q. From his perspective, he has 11 outs, roughly 3 to 1 odds. Now, going back to your perspective, you know that your opponenet does not have 11 outs, but rather 9, because you hold pocket A's. So, that's just roughly over 4 to 1 odds. I'll come back to this here shortly.

Again, because I feel like at the micro-tables, players play honestly (more specificly, they do not slow play, espicially open-ended straight draws), I would feel like your villain is an honest player, too. So what REALLY suprises me is how the villain plays the rest of the hand.

You raised preflop, villain calls. On the flop, you have the highest possible pair, no immediate danger of flush draw, but a possible sense of danger for the open-ended straight draw. If the villain is an honest player, and that's what I would put him on, he showed weakness by checking the flop. He would have made a bet if he held KK, paired the Q, possibly the T, made a 2 pair, or (in my mind) if he had a KJ. So based of the information that your opponent checked the flop, I feel he has a mid-low pocket pair, but not the KJ. To call a 4x raise pre-flop, checking the flop, I now put your opponent on JJ, 99 - 22. I still doubt that he has a J9 because I feel he would not call a 4x pfr, and I feel he would have bet the open-ended straight draw.

You made a .16 bet at a .19 pot, putting the pot at .35 total. That leaves the villain with .16 to .35 odds, or 2.1875 to 1 odds. Now, I still struggle with understanding pot odds correctly. But if I have my head wrapped the concept correclty, then you would want to offer the villain lower odds than what he has. So the villain has roughly 3 to 1 odds (from his perspective), if he holds KJ. A .10 bet making the pot .29 would leave the villain at 2.9 to 1 odds. If I understand this correctly, this would be the 'perfect sized bet'. So what I am trying to say here is, is that you risked .06 more than you had to. None-the-less, I feel it was a poor play by the villain to call, even if he had the open-ended straight draw.

On the turn, a flush draw is possible for your opponent, trips if he had the JJ, or additional straight draws. You're .29 bet on a .51 pot gives your opponent .29 to .80 odds or 1 to 2.76 odds. A pretty decent bet, I believe. If the villain hit the set of pocket J's, I'd imagine him to reraise you because he would be 'so excited he'd try to quickly maximize his value'. But again, he just called. Because of the villain just calling, I now put him on a KJ for the open-ended straight draw, or a K8s or lower. I feel like he is hoping for an A or a 9 and he is just fishing for it at the river.

On every play prior to the river, you had control of the board. The villain had to react to you. But all the sudden, the villain took the upmost control by shoving all in on the second pair J. You can't go over him because he's already all in. So you now have to respond to him. And, also being at the micro table where I feel players are honest, I don't see the villain taking control of the board unless he had a J in his hand. So what were his possible hole cards? I go back to my orignal thought of the villain holding KJ.

I say you made an excellent lay down. Me personally, I probably would have lost that additional dollar.

Again, I would like additional dialog so I could learn myself. So constructive criticism is very welcome!
 
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Wed Mar 30, 2011, 08:54 AM
(#7)
darkwolves's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 10
BronzeStar
I love the discussion of pot odds here, specifically sizing the bet in order to give someone with the King good odds to call, knowing we have him beat if he hits. Honestly, I was multi-tabling around 7 tables or so here, so I did not think that much about sizing my bet, I was just trying to extract value from what I was pretty sure was the best hand here.

You are definitely right about people playing honest at the 2nl level. I do, mostly because no one is exploiting me for it. I can play honest and still get paid off. On that note, there is another type of player who plays the 2nl level. There are actually a fairly large number of regular multi-tablers at this level, playing because it is profitable with all of the other types of players that you mentioned.

Your analysis about the KJ is right on, about exactly what I was thinking during the hand. However, I don't think him checking the flop is really a sign of weakness. He was out of position against a preflop aggressor, so checking to me is just playing in flow. He could be doing this with a hand like QQ, TT, or 66, hoping that I will cbet the flop. He flat calls to extract value from later streets if I continue. That being said, I though it much more likely that he was holding KJ or QJ.

EDIT: There is another general factor here for who is playing at this level. This hand went down during the 60B hand promotion, so more people were playing just for a shot at being in one of the milestone hands.

Last edited by darkwolves; Wed Mar 30, 2011 at 09:17 AM..
 
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Wed Mar 30, 2011, 09:47 AM
(#8)
EndlessMyk's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 33
BronzeStar
Dark,

I was just introduced to pokertableratings and I can see how powerful the tool really is. As I put the opponents name into the program, it's easy to see that the villain is a consistently winning player. With that being said, in combination with detail you mentioned about multi-tablers and 60 billionth hand, I do have to agree with you about his possible setmining the trips.

I was just not putting him on trips because of how I feel 9/10 players are honest players.

One thing I want to learn how to do is multi-table. I feel like this would be a wonderful skill for anyone who can split there attention equally on several tasks, a controlled form of ADD if you will. I've always been that person (or player) who hyper-focuses into one event, making it extremely difficult to see what 'else' is going on.

When you multi-table, how do you set up the screens? Side by side, one on another? Do you omit notetaking to save time? It would be nice if PS would allow hotkeys instead of mouseclicks.
 
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Wed Mar 30, 2011, 11:16 AM
(#9)
EA2USN's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 176
BronzeStar
I usually multi table 10 -12 tables at a time. I run them stacked on top of each other. Run poker tracker 3 with a heads up display on the table. I only make limited notes while playing due to the constant table action note taking for me is very difficult with that many tables going. However I do like to note by color three groups of people 1st group is players playing 1 or 2 tables I have them Blue, 2nd group is player playing 3-7 tables I have them yellow, and 3rd group is players playing 8 or more table I have them red.

Then as I build stats I will note high VI$P or high % of preflop limpers as Green.
Surprisingly all of my greens come from the blue group of players (1-2 table rs). Most likely they are newer players or players who are not winning players. I find the that players playing multi tables more than 8 do not bluff much and are straight forward players for the most part because you have so much going on you can just fold till you get premium hands and not waste effort with marginal hands, or missed flops with big cards.
 
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Wed Mar 30, 2011, 12:53 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Sample size of hands is small, but thus far villain has been the ultimate passive preflop (so I would not assume he's 3b with AK or big pairs pre). But his AF post is a high ratio, so once he sees a flop he generally likes to be aggressive if continuing in the hand. Given that I think you get check/raised on the flop if he flopped super strong like 2 pair+. Whether or not he plays draws aggressively (KJ/J9) is uncertain, a high AF indicates maybe (sample size of 68 hands, vpip 28% = 19 hands played pre, out of that he's had at best just a small sample of flopped draws, if any, could even be zero). I'm inclined to think he flopped a marginal made hand or a draw, in many cases the running J's did help him. QJ, JT would make sense. KQ, AQ, KK all make sense for getting involved pre, but it seems like this player sticks a raise in somewhere or donks into you with these as consistant with his AF. I can see the check/call with a more modest made hand like JT, and he check/calls again with 2 pair concerned you have AK. Bets the river since he no longer cares if you have AK.

You're calling $1 to win $2.10, so the call has to be right 32.3% of the time to break even, not sure that he's going to take this line with worse that often, so the fold is fine.

Given the aggressive nature of this player post flop, and the fact that the turn card is horrible for AA, you may want to check back the turn for pot control and to induce, then call his river bet.
 
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Wed Mar 30, 2011, 01:28 PM
(#11)
darkwolves's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 10
BronzeStar
Thanks Dave. I really like that idea of checking the turn and calling the river. I did not think of that, but it makes perfect sense.

Quote:
One thing I want to learn how to do is multi-table. I feel like this would be a wonderful skill for anyone who can split there attention equally on several tasks, a controlled form of ADD if you will. I've always been that person (or player) who hyper-focuses into one event, making it extremely difficult to see what 'else' is going on.

When you multi-table, how do you set up the screens? Side by side, one on another? Do you omit notetaking to save time? It would be nice if PS would allow hotkeys instead of mouseclicks.
EndlessMyk, I started out playing 2 tables at a time. I could keep full concentration at both tables and one table alone was way too slow. But I still had free time, so I kept adding more tables. Now I am playing at least 4 at a time, but not more than 8. I definitely sacrifice some note taking and miss a lot of hands that I am not in. However, if I do see something worth noting, I make sure I find time to mark it down (even if it can be pretty frantic to do that).

I believe I prefer to tile the tables, however, I am having technical difficulties (my laptop VGA port bit the dust) which prevent me from using my other monitor. So I am currently cascading the tables. I use holdem manager, and I am currently on a free trial period for table ninja, which I find very helpful, but I doubt I will actually buy when the trial period is up. Table Ninja provides the hotkeys, and I completely agree that PS should have provided these. Makes it much easier.
 

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