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What are the odds? Ouch!

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What are the odds? Ouch! - Sun Apr 03, 2011, 02:56 PM
(#1)
Hunt2day's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 66
 
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Sun Apr 03, 2011, 05:01 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
The only sensible question here is "How often will I run into an overpar holding 66 with 2 players to act in an unopenend pot?" The answer is 7.7% of the time (12:1 against).

The other possible questions are meaningless since your money should have went in pre-flop.
 
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Sun Apr 03, 2011, 05:12 PM
(#3)
Hunt2day's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 66
While I understand this, as for the all in, the table knew it was all going in, obviously.He wasn't folding off his pocket 10's for 500 more all in from me, not with his 7,715. I was just low stacked, blah blah, I am just saying what is the odds, I make a straight to beat his set, and his quad flops, maybe it's not as interesting as I thought.
Thanks though

Hunt2day

Last edited by Hunt2day; Sun Apr 03, 2011 at 05:21 PM..
 
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Ooooh !!!! - Sun Apr 03, 2011, 05:16 PM
(#4)
Brizer73's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 270
Just watched it Hunt2day - not what u wanna see when the cards are turned over !!!!
 
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Sun Apr 03, 2011, 08:34 PM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I think it is interesting Hunt2day. It is a facet of online poker that really hurts. The villain was never folding his pocket tens whether you went all in or not preflop. On the turn when you make your straight you are praying for no J or 10 on the river but isn't it more often than not the case that the short stack gets sucked out?

Apparently that's poker but if you had the tens and the J or 10 did not come you would probably feel worse. As for the odds I wish I knew...

TC
 
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Sun Apr 03, 2011, 08:56 PM
(#6)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
For some rough numbers use the estimation of 2% per out. Drawing to the gutter is 4 outs so the probability of hitting is ~8% (roughly 12:1 against).

When the turn delivers the miracle your opponent is drawing to one out, the case ten, so the probability is ~2% or 49:1 against.

The next natural question concerns the combined probability of these two events happening to raise your hopes then cruelly immediately afterward. To find the combined probability of these two events you just multiply the individual probabilities. 8% * 2% = 0.16%. If you want to know what this is in odds, it is approximately 625:1 against.
 
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Sun Apr 03, 2011, 09:04 PM
(#7)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks Joe,

I think it qualifies as a reasonable flop, wonderful turn and a dismal river. I am still working on the maths

TC
 
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Sun Apr 03, 2011, 09:58 PM
(#8)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Once you hit your straight he still had 10 outs to make a full house, about 20% chance with 1 card to come, if you would have won that would have been more of a bad beat than his resuckout is.

Joe is right, you should have shoved preflop. Obviously he is not folding 10's, but he would fold a lot of hands that contain overcards like 87, 98, J7 etc. Often you will be up against hands like that, limping in gives those hands cheap flop to try and beat you.
 
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riverstarred - Sun Apr 03, 2011, 11:53 PM
(#9)
SküllDüggery's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 43
BronzeStar
you got riverstarred,hombre. it is no fluke. big brother did not allow it. nothing to do with odds. that type of scenario happens way more than odds would allow.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:59 PM
(#10)
puppymudhead's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 3
BronzeStar
Depending on the odds are definitely a double edged sword since the odds of catching someone with a better hand or getting sucked out on the more hands you play would be increased.
 

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