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200 from the money

200 from the money - Sun Apr 03, 2011, 11:55 PM
XXChris123's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,512
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I have been thinking about this all day did I make a mistake ?
Mon Apr 04, 2011, 12:09 AM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
there are only 2 hands you're seriously behind and I don't think it's a bad play. If you put at least 1 of the 2 on an A or K... then the odds are against someone having one of those 2 hands are not very good.
Mon Apr 04, 2011, 02:29 AM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
As it went, hard to say...

JWK hits the nail on the head; your read of the 2nd raiser is the operative thing to consider. What was that answer?

The key point for you to be thinking on is NOT "should I call", but "Can I fold?"

Your standard type raise puts 25% of your stack in. As this amount puts you into a pretty close "committment point"- did you give any PRIOR thought to what the opponents might re-raise you with pre-flop?

Were there any players behind you to whom you would willingly FOLD that 25% entry raise?

What about the action as it developed- Re-raise/shove? What do your reads tell you that they "need" to make those plays?

The important thing to think on: is there ANY type of action that is likely that would make you FOLD this hand after putting in 25%, because your read makes your hand very vulnerable?

If so, then yes, you should have folded. This is NOT a good spot to tangle holding AKs...
You may be "sharing" outs and be against a pp...
You may be drawing versus 2 pp hands...
You may be drawing against AA/KK, and be behind...
The likelihood of these scenarioes are entirely based on your reads.

If not, then maybe you should have shoved pre, and guarenteed yourself seeing all 5 cards. At least then, come what may, you get to see all 5 cards for maximum chance of making a winning" hand.

It all comes down to your reads, your position, and what types of hands this sort of action would require.

Last edited by JDean; Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 02:35 AM..
Mon Apr 04, 2011, 04:21 AM
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Here are my thoughts:

First off, you can raise/fold with 17 or so BB to start. It's not all that impossible to survive 200 more eliminations after taking a 2.5BB hit to that sized stack. And the math is obviously not compelling you to call here with ATC just because you opened with a shortish stack. You can afford to fold here, imo.

I see the scenarios like this (edit: in cases where opponents are playing aces, I've only been inputting suited aces; I realized that after I'd done the calculations):

1) You're dominating both opponents (the BEST case scenario - about 52% equity). How likely is this? The 3bettor might have a weaker ace, but I rarely see anyone 4bet jam with weaker than AK. In terms of likelihood, I'm thinking not very.

2) You're up against two pocket pairs lower than K (second best case scenario - about 39.5% equity). Is this likely? Given that pocket pairs are only dealt out once every 13 hands, I'd say no. Also, I don't see many medium or low pocket pairs 3bet jamming, then 4bet jamming. This doesn't seem likely either.

3) You're dominating/chopping with one opponent, and against one pocket pair lower than K (third best case scenario - about 36% equity if the opponent with Ax would ship any ace). This is the most likely scenario, I think, although I believe it's a stretch to say that the Ax could be as low as A2. The important thing to note though, is that AK almost always needs to pair in order to win against any pocket pair. That's harder to do if your opponent is blocking your outs.

4) You're up against KK or AA, and I'm just assuming ATC for the other villain (worst case scenario - about 21% equity).

Here's how I see things. You're only winning more than half of the time in the best case scenario. Reads don't really matter here. Most of the time you will be under 50% to win against your opponents' combined range, and you're only flipping when you're ahead. What's more, you're calling for your entire stack on what is a race at best. I think folding AK would have been a solid choice here.
Mon Apr 04, 2011, 11:03 AM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Raise/folding on less than a 20bb stack is usually a leak. If you are going to steal on a 17 bb stack then make a more standard raise of 2.5x or even 3x instead of 3.5x. Still though this isn't a steal with AKs it's a hand you can play for value. Here's why.

We don't need to win this pot 50% of the time. We have to call 8289 to win a pot of 32508, so we only need 25% equity to make this call. AKs will have more than that even against 2 fairly tight ranges.
Mon Apr 04, 2011, 04:29 PM
XXChris123's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,512
thank you , all of you i appreciate it

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