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Understanding (fold) equity:

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Understanding (fold) equity: - Tue Apr 05, 2011, 09:44 PM
(#1)
EndlessMyk's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 33
BronzeStar
I don't really remember where in the game this hand is, but I believe it is just a few spots before the bubble. I noticed many people tightening up, and one player even said, "I've made the money twice today. I want to make it three times. I have no intention of playing any hands." Later in chat, he even declared he was folding pocket A's to get to the bubble.

The villain in this hand previously lost about 80% of his stack. I watched him tighten his preflop selection. Only twice did he limp in, and when he missed the flop, he folded to action. So I was putting him shoving his hands on about 20% of hands, any broadway and any pair.

Prior to this tournament, I watched the recorded live video about fold equity and I promised to myself to change my game and see the results. This is not my normal play. But given what I can learn from it, I found it to be useful.

Now, I am going to talk my way through the [fold] equity of the situation. I would like help clarifying any portion of the math that I misunderstood.

Sorry, not sure how to get the hand to show in the forum. But click me.

Equity (E) = Chips I risk / Chips in the pot
E = 1237/2687
E = .4604 or 46.04%

Using Pokerstove's range of "any broadway, any pair" I get 17.9%. 47s has 37.15% against this setting. So for me to break even, I need 46% equity. But I only had 37% equity. So it is a -EV play, and I should have folded.

So for me to have the worst possible hand to make a +EV call, it would need to be about a KQs, and pokerstove puts that at 47% equity against the villain.


Now, had the villain been in the BB and I raised him all-in with 47s, I think I would have had the equity to shove.

*I pulled this information from the recorded live video*

Three situations are possible for shoving the BB all in.
  • He'll fold 82.1% of the time, and I'll gain the chips. (A)
  • He'll call 17.9% of the time, I'll win, and I'll gain the chips (B)
  • He'll call 17.9% of the time, I'll lose, and I'll lose the chips. (C)

So the formula would look like A+B-C.
A = .821 * 2687 = 2206.03
B = .179 * .3715 * 2678 = +178.08
C = .179 * .6285 * -2678 = -301.28

2206 +178 - 301 = +2082 chips.

So had the positions been inverted, I'd clearly have +EV to call.

If I had 72o, the situation would looked like the following:
A = .821 * 2687 = 2206.03
B = .179 * .2718 * 2678 = +130.29
C = .179 * .7281 * -2678 = -349.02

2206 + 130 - 349 = 1987, still a +EV to call with the worst hand.


My conclusion is that I made an -EV play. I learned that if the position alone was changed, then it would have been an +EV play. Furthermore, if position alone was changed and I had the worst hand possible, it still would have been a +EV play. Am I correct?
 
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Fri Apr 08, 2011, 10:12 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Mike,

You're on the right track, but some of this isn't exactly correct, so let's go through it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EndlessMyk View Post
I don't really remember where in the game this hand is, but I believe it is just a few spots before the bubble. I noticed many people tightening up, and one player even said, "I've made the money twice today. I want to make it three times. I have no intention of playing any hands." Later in chat, he even declared he was folding pocket A's to get to the bubble.
Nice of them to tell you this, right. Good observations and good observation that the villain had tightened up.


Quote:
Now, I am going to talk my way through the [fold] equity of the situation. I would like help clarifying any portion of the math that I misunderstood.

Sorry, not sure how to get the hand to show in the forum. But click me.

Equity (E) = Chips I risk / Chips in the pot
E = 1237/2687
E = .4604 or 46.04%

Using Pokerstove's range of "any broadway, any pair" I get 17.9%. 47s has 37.15% against this setting. So for me to break even, I need 46% equity. But I only had 37% equity. So it is a -EV play, and I should have folded.
In your equity calc, it's not the chips in the pot right now, it's the chips in the pot after you call.

Remember the pie analogy from the class. Your equity represents your slice of the pie. If you call, the pie from which you'll be getting that slice is the entire final pot. When you call the final pot is 3924. So your break even point is 1237/3924 or 31.5%, and this call was +EV.

Quote:
So for me to have the worst possible hand to make a +EV call, it would need to be about a KQs, and pokerstove puts that at 47% equity against the villain.
Good... although your 47% number was incorrect, great job carrying the process through to determine what kind of range you could call with if you needed 47%.

Quote:
Now, had the villain been in the BB and I raised him all-in with 47s, I think I would have had the equity to shove.

*I pulled this information from the recorded live video*

Three situations are possible for shoving the BB all in.
  • He'll fold 82.1% of the time, and I'll gain the chips. (A)
  • He'll call 17.9% of the time, I'll win, and I'll gain the chips (B)
  • He'll call 17.9% of the time, I'll lose, and I'll lose the chips. (C)

So the formula would look like A+B-C.
A = .821 * 2687 = 2206.03
B = .179 * .3715 * 2678 = +178.08
C = .179 * .6285 * -2678 = -301.28

2206 +178 - 301 = +2082 chips.
Right formula, just make sure you're using the right numbers for "the chips" part.

In A, "the chips" = 1050 (the preflop pot size, when he folds and yields you the blinds and antes)
In B, "the chips" = 2287 (the preflop pot size + his call... note his stack was 1637 but in this calc he posted the 400 chip bb first so that 400 is included in the 1050, and he has to call 1237 more)
In C, "the chips" = 1637 (the cost of our shove)

.821*1050 + .179*.3715*2287 - .179*.6285*1637 = 862.05 + 152.08 - 184.16 = +829.97

Quote:
So had the positions been inverted, I'd clearly have +EV to call.
You mean shove, you'd have a +EV shove. If he's folding 82% of the time, absolutely.

Hope this helps.

Dave
 
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Fri Apr 08, 2011, 11:12 PM
(#3)
EndlessMyk's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 33
BronzeStar
Alright Dave, thanks for the clarification. I now feel more comfortable in terms of fold equity. However, I find it strange that I have to rely on my 'educated' guess to put a range of hands the villain is willing to shove to calculate fold equity , instead of using actual data. I guess now is the time to invest in a poker tracking software.

Thanks again!
 
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Sat Apr 09, 2011, 02:04 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Even with tracking software, it's still your best educated guess when ranging opponents. With data the guess may be a big more educated is all.
 
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Sat Apr 09, 2011, 04:26 AM
(#5)
hemetdennis's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,019
BronzeStar
EVEN WITH THE TRACKING YOU ARE LIMITED, AS YOU SAID THEY HAD CHANGED

SO IT'S STILL BACK TO YOUR BEST GUESS

GOOD LUCK

GO DUCKS

 
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Sat Apr 09, 2011, 11:08 AM
(#6)
EndlessMyk's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 33
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Even with tracking software, it's still your best educated guess when ranging opponents. With data the guess may be a big more educated is all.

Right: I just don't like to be wrong with my educated guesses! :p I put the villain on any broadway, any pair. I should have selected any Ax offsuit as well.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 11:58 AM
(#7)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Fold equity

EV= pot(X) + (1-X) { [your equity (amount you can win)] + [the other players equity (amount you will lose)] }

Lets say he limps everyone folds and then you put him all in.

The pot would be 1050+400=1450

Amount you can lose 1637-400=1237 (If he limped he would have 400 chips less then he started with.)

Amount you can win 1450+1237=2687 (The amount he would have left + the pot / the pot total)

Now find X

1450X + (1-X) {[0.34834(2687)] + [0.65166(-1237)]}

1450X + (1-X) {935.99+(-806.103)}

1450X + (1-X) {129.886}

The number is + and if that is the case you have to much equity to want a fold preflop. You would be giving up to much if the other player folds. You should also know he isn't deep enough to play this type of hand against post flop. In other words you would be giving up money if he folds with that range. You would have priced your self in vs that range for stacking off. If the numbe was - then X would tell you what % of the time they have to fold inorder for you to break even.

Lets change your equity to odds

34.834/100=0.34834

0.34834/1.00

1.00-0.34834=0.65166

0.65166:0.34834

0.65166/0.34834=1.87076

1.87076:1

Your pot odds at the time were 2.17:1 so if your range was correct then the call was correct odds wise. You should also be looking at your M. You have an M of 5 do you really want to put in that many chips at this point with this type of hand? If you lose your M will be 4.

Last edited by R1J1J; Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 01:13 PM..
 
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?? - Mon Apr 11, 2011, 12:40 PM
(#8)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Later in chat, he even declared he was folding pocket A's to get to the bubble.

Read more: Understanding (fold) equity: - PokerSchoolOnline Forum http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...#ixzz1JEXFjLdq

did this player - say this-- while the hand was in play--??????
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#9)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Even with tracking software, it's still your best educated guess when ranging opponents. With data the guess may be a big more educated is all.

I agree you are still guessing but who has the edge a person with tracking software or a person without it? Not only will the person with software be able to narrow down what your doing a lot better they will also be able to do it faster. Also if I have 1,000 hands or more on a person in software + notes how much guessing am I really doing?
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 01:02 PM
(#10)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
Later in chat, he even declared he was folding pocket A's to get to the bubble.

Read more: Understanding (fold) equity: - PokerSchoolOnline Forum http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...#ixzz1JEXFjLdq

did this player - say this-- while the hand was in play--??????

If they fold he would pick up the pot 1450

vs

If they call 100% of the time

EV= {Fold % (pot) + call %}
{ [your equity (amount you can win)] + [the other players equity (amount you will lose)] }

{1450(0) + 1} {[0.34834(2687)] + [0.65166(-1237)]}


{935.99+(-806.103)}

129.886

we make more money on a call then a fold so we don't want a fold preflop if we are shoving with this hand vs a 20% range.

Last edited by R1J1J; Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 01:06 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 01:05 PM
(#11)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by EndlessMyk View Post
Right: I just don't like to be wrong with my educated guesses! :p I put the villain on any broadway, any pair. I should have selected any Ax offsuit as well.
Get PT3 or HEM.
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 02:23 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
I agree you are still guessing but who has the edge a person with tracking software or a person without it? Not only will the person with software be able to narrow down what your doing a lot better they will also be able to do it faster. Also if I have 1,000 hands or more on a person in software + notes how much guessing am I really doing?
You say that as though you think I would disagree with you, I'm not sure why?

Poker is a game of incomplete information. The more information upon which you can base your decisions, the better those decisions can be, and that includes ranging opponents. More info = better educated guesses. You are still guessing, even having a large sample size + notes on a villain, but with a lot of info it's possible to make a very well educated guess about their range in certain spots (assuming one interprets the stats correctly, which is also another big problem people have)
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 04:09 PM
(#13)
Cheon57's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
BronzeStar
There is something to be said for the stats that tracking software reveals but in the long run nothing is really better than close observation of the table as many of the better players are able to adapt to the specific situations the dynamics of the table offer.
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 10:39 PM
(#14)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
You say that as though you think I would disagree with you, I'm not sure why?

Poker is a game of incomplete information. The more information upon which you can base your decisions, the better those decisions can be, and that includes ranging opponents. More info = better educated guesses. You are still guessing, even having a large sample size + notes on a villain, but with a lot of info it's possible to make a very well educated guess about their range in certain spots (assuming one interprets the stats correctly, which is also another big problem people have)
It seems to me you have something against the use of software or stats. A player needs to learn how to think and shouldn't be a drone to software but you are at a clear disadvantage if you are not running a HUD these days. If you go on any poker site everyone is running PT or HEM. I'm not say you should do the same just because everyone else does. I'm saying that you don't want to give other players an edge. Besides that software can be a powerful tool for analyzing your game and looking for leaks. It can also save you money on coaching. The bottom line is any player thats serious about the game is running software and if you think other wise then your just fooling yourself. No software is not the end all be all. There are many parts to being a good poker player and software is one of them.

Last edited by R1J1J; Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:24 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 11:15 PM
(#15)
R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
BronzeStar
Odds can be used for a preflop all in as well.


pair vs smaller pair 4:1

pair vs higher cards 1.2:1

pair vs lower cards 4:1

high pair vs lower high cards 5.7:1

pair vs one higher and one lower card 2.3:1

pair vs dominated overcard 2.3:1

pair vs dominated undercard 9:1

high cards vs lower cards 1.5:1

high cards vs two inbetween 1.5:1

high ace vs dominated ace 3:1
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:12 PM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by R1J1J View Post
It seems to me you have something against the use of software or stats.
Sorry if I gave that impression in this thread, not sure why you think that, but it's 100% not true. It's quite well known that I run HEM personally and advocate it as an essential tool to any serious real money player (I've even done live trainings on using HEM as a self analysis tool, and HUD usage to aid in game decisions).

I do agree with you it's important not to be come a stat robot too.
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 11:36 PM
(#17)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Ya where you been? Langolier is talking about HEM and HUD's all the time.

I think I might be the only person here at PSO that is not a fan of HUD's... I understand the advantages, I just disagree with anything that blurs the line between human/bot play.
 
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Sat Apr 16, 2011, 01:20 PM
(#18)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I think I might be the only person here at PSO that is not a fan of HUD's... I understand the advantages, I just disagree with anything that blurs the line between human/bot play.
Even if you are morally opposed to HUDS (a position I do not agree with but respect others right to hold this position), the tool is still invaluable for self analysis and will pay for itself many times over when utilized properly. Even if you never turn the hud on once.

Dave
 
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Sun Apr 17, 2011, 12:11 PM
(#19)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Even if you are morally opposed to HUDS (a position I do not agree with but respect others right to hold this position), the tool is still invaluable for self analysis and will pay for itself many times over when utilized properly. Even if you never turn the hud on once.

Dave
Yeah for sure Dave good point. I might come around to HUD's (somewhat forceably so since I want to keep pushing my limits multi-tabling) someday... assuming I ever get to play online again. I've been considering using HEM or something similar to look into my own stats more in depth, just haven't gotten around to it so far.
 

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