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Running Bad

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Running Bad - Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:31 PM
(#1)
SJCChamp06's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 5
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I'm sure everyone has experienced it at one point or another. When for a long period of time absolutely none of your hands will hold up. Aces lose to smaller pocket pairs, AK loses to Arags, or even losing like 9 out of 10 coin flips.

What do you guys do to get through your bad runs? Take time off? Just play more and more talbes to try and get through it? Play lower limits?

** Also, I noticed that the last time I cashed out any money on PS, I ran super bad for a very long time. Has this happened to anyone else? Or is it just me being superstitious?
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:36 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I just say "Variance sucks!" and go to the next hand.
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:40 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
Thats one of the greatest myths going about cashing out,but I am superstitious as well and make sure I dont leave myself short when I do cash out.I have a lot of crazy beliefs,like I only run good at night and days are a write off.

Im on a bad run myself but I think its more to do with opening up my game and testing reads instead of folding to the river spew bets from villians.
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:46 PM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Varience will naturally fluctuate over time. I'm guessing you cashed out during or directly after an upswing in your luck. Of course, the upswing doesn't last any longer than a downswing would. So not long after withdrawing, your luck returned to normal levels or even hit a downswing. The only way forward from an upswing is down. Got to love variance...

How to handle downswings? I tried asking the same question in the 'ask pokerstars pros' section and never got a reply. After having a very bad run of luck and going on tilt, I find that I need to take some time to cool off. It takes 18 - 48 hours for me after the very worst of the worst. During that time I try to clear my head and regain focus on my goals.
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:50 PM
(#5)
Drywallman3's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 277
Interesting you say that Cookies, I was wondering if any one else felt that way about playing during the day vs. at night. I my self feel I am better at night rather during the day.
I can't offer any good advice to this topic for my cash game is horrid and realize I need to watch Dave's Lessons and take good notes!
- Dry
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:55 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
@Drywallman3

One factor is the regs are move active in the day,but I have noticed a few switch over to take advantage of the smaller fields at night.I remember back in Jan. I came in 3rd I think in the 18k
and thought I found a goldmine.Within a week the field got 4xtougher.Im guessing word of mouth got out how soft it was.
SNGs are way easier at night but they take forever to fill up.When I say easier I am still getting bad beat..lol
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 01:59 PM
(#7)
ericlee1984's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 311
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i once knew this overweight kid in school, he ran bad alot but only in gym class

by the way too2coo how do i get a warning for asking a ? about daniel neg?....i dident insult anyone i just asked a question.
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 02:06 PM
(#8)
Deleted user
To ask about some ones sexuality is offensive.
A good rule of thumb is if you cant say it to there face dont say it at all.
Poker is a supposed to be gender neutral and sexuality falls under the same umbrella.
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 02:17 PM
(#9)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by ericlee1984 View Post
i once knew this overweight kid in school, he ran bad alot but only in gym class

by the way too2coo how do i get a warning for asking a ? about daniel neg?....i dident insult anyone i just asked a question.
You weren't just asking a question you were making an implication. I strongly suggest that you drop this now.
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 02:22 PM
(#10)
ericlee1984's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
You weren't just asking a question you were making an implication. I strongly suggest that you drop this now.
really i was just asking a question, no harm no foul but we can consider it dropped i suppose.
 
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?? - Wed Apr 06, 2011, 02:24 PM
(#11)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
i am a student-- most underlined sentence in my folder- is

variance is just that-- the way the cards fall-- if you can continually beat the game-- and get it in good-- your reward will come---
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 03:02 PM
(#12)
johannfl's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 169
BronzeStar
The other day I was in a tourney complaining to myself about the bad beats i've been getting relentlessly lately. I was playin pretty tight on a loose/donkish table and I was down to 11 BB, had Q4 in middle posit, UTG went all in, because I was chatting and stalling a bit I ACCIDENTALLY hit "call." Then two other people call after me!! Grrrrrr.

I s*** you not, the flop was q44. Ended that session deep in the money.

I was also wondering how many people that thought they had a good read on me that day were scratching their head after that.

Anyway thought that was kinda funny, and personally, instead of just working through the variance, I usually chill for awhile when I'm feelin that "nothings goin right for me" thing so as to avoid tilt.

Last edited by johannfl; Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 03:09 PM..
 
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Wed Apr 06, 2011, 03:19 PM
(#13)
XXChris123's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,512
BronzeStar
running bad or playing bad
I find players blame variance when its really they play incorrectly
I hate the terms variance
i hate the term bad beat
AA wins 80% of time
80+20=100
AA loses 20% of time
20% = bad beats ...... no
20% = 100% - 80%

it is the equation being satisfied

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trials

hole cards are like the beginning of a coin toss
so preflop play is like a bernouli trial
flop hits and now you have another coin toss and another bernouli trial
turn hits and once again its another coin toss and another bernouli trial
river hit and now you have the final coin toss and the final bernouli trial for that hand '

each bernouli trial is in fact coin toss
the question is is it a fair coin toss

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_coin

AA vs KK is not a fair coin toss and that is what you want
how long does it take before choosing the correct coins leads to profit ??



if its one die it appears to take 500 bernouli trials
hmmmmmm
if I multi table I will reach 500 bernouli trials in just a few hours

there are no bad beats
there is no variance over time

poker is a series of bernouli trials
try a million trials

Last edited by XXChris123; Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 03:22 PM..
 

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