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Should I call?

 
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Should I call? - Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:06 PM
(#1)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Both player's being so short chipped I figured I could very well have 2 live cards. "WilyECoyote" seemed desperate so I thought he was shoving a super wide range here all pairs , any Ace , any King any broad way's, maybe any 2 connected cards as well. "sidsh" I wasnt sure what to make of his call he was new to the table, but was so short chipped I figured he could be calling real light as well. I made the call because the pot was 55,000 and I only had to call 14,000, given pot odds and stack sizes is it worth it to gamble here?
 
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?? - Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:30 PM
(#2)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
i am pretty sure u had to call
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:33 PM
(#3)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
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Getting just under 4 to 1 for a call. I would like to know what tourney this hand was in and #'s for an accurate evaluation. Had this hand been suited, I call. As it is, I lay this and find a better spot without any of the aforementioned information.

JT
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:39 PM
(#4)
Deleted user
What buyin is this tourney?

You are flipping against most of villians ranges at best and its a good way to bleed chips.
Play with the odds calculator that we have here and you will get a idea of what is going on.

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Oddscalc

I find you make one or two plays like this and you are suddenly the shortstack.
Best to let the two shorties butt heads and try to get HU with who ever wins after seeing what they went in with.
 
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?? - Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:40 PM
(#5)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JT_Sooooted View Post
Getting just under 4 to 1 for a call. I would like to know what tourney this hand was in and #'s for an accurate evaluation. Had this hand been suited, I call. As it is, I lay this and find a better spot without any of the aforementioned information.

JT
regardless of the tournament-- calling is plus EV--- stack wont be harmed by more than 17%-- and as there is no post flop play-- how can you fold???
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:45 PM
(#6)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
This was 1 hour and 45 minutes into a $500 added 10 FPP turbo, so I was free rolling.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:47 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
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answers to these ?'s would greatly help.

What type of tourney was this in?
Are you ITM?
Are there any larger prize jumps you're nearing in on?

This one's a tough one, because there are positives and minuses for both.

If you're ITM with no larger prize jumps coming up, or in a freeroll, then you are getting 4X your $$$ and only have to put in about 2 extra BB.... it would have helped IF you had 2 live cards instead of one, or if you're suited.

Although, it is going to cost you an extra 2BB, when you only have about 10BB left and you're basically assured that you are behind going in (even if they're calling light, they should be ahead of your 7 8 off).

Personally, I'd probaly have folded and let them fight it out and tried to get my chips into a better spot, where I would be ahead, instead of one that I knew I was behind.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:48 PM
(#8)
Deleted user
Chance of getting a Straight Flush on the flop: Impossible
Chance of getting 4-of-a-kind on the flop: 0.01%
Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.09%
Chance of getting a Flush on the flop: Impossible
Chance of getting a Straight on the flop: 1.31%
Chance of getting 3-of-a-kind on the flop: 1.57%
Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 4.04%
Chance of getting 1 Pair on the flop: 26.94%
Chance of getting a Four Flush on the flop: 2.24%
Chance of NO overcards coming down on the flop: 13.27%
Chance of ONE overcard coming down on the flop: 39.80%
Chance of TWO overcards coming down on the flop: 36.61%
Chance of THREE overcards coming down on the flop: 10.33%
Chance of ANY overcards coming down on the flop: 86.73%

These stats are not even factoring in villians range 3 way.

Last edited by Deleted user; Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 10:50 PM..
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:51 PM
(#9)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
regardless of the tournament-- calling is plus EV--- stack wont be harmed by more than 17%-- and as there is no post flop play-- how can you fold???

I click the button on the left side of the screen "FOLD". Odd's do NOT always bring me into a pot. Again, all the information I need to make a good decision isn't available. With what was given. I muck........just an answer MONK

JT
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:53 PM
(#10)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
I was well ITM, less than 150 players left out of over 3,000. The only money jumps were small until the final few tables.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:54 PM
(#11)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Quote:
Originally Posted by JT_Sooooted View Post
Getting just under 4 to 1 for a call. I would like to know what tourney this hand was in and #'s for an accurate evaluation. Had this hand been suited, I call. As it is, I lay this and find a better spot without any of the aforementioned information.

JT
What exactly do you mean by "#'s"?
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 10:57 PM
(#12)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
What exactly do you mean by "#'s"?
Much of what has been asked. How many left? How many to ITM? How many to move up pay levels? Stuff like this?

JT
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:02 PM
(#13)
JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
I was well ITM, less than 150 players left out of over 3,000. The only money jumps were small until the final few tables.
That helps with wanting to call and get 4X your $$ on it. Also, if you have reads on the other players at the table and can easily get those extra chips back... that helps too.
If there were any larger prize jumps, etc... then just like right before being ITM, then you need to make sure you get it.

I'd still try to get my $$ into a better spot though (pair, two paint/ace, suited connectors or 1 gap, etc).

Just, be sure that when your last chips go in.... don't bubble a level (use your clock if you need to).... get every cent that you can.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:03 PM
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This is one thread that I hope Dave looks at and gives his opinion, as it's one we'll all be able to learn from.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:07 PM
(#15)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
This is one thread that I hope Dave looks at and gives his opinion, as it's one we'll all be able to learn from.
Indeed and agree............does the math make us do anything? Can we let this go? What are the ranges that we may want to call?

JT
 
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??? - Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:17 PM
(#16)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by JT_Sooooted View Post
Indeed and agree............does the math make us do anything? Can we let this go? What are the ranges that we may want to call?

JT

its an instacall, an auto call, a must call---it just is----------no post flop play is required--
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:19 PM
(#17)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
its an instacall, an auto call, a must call---it just is----------no post flop play is required--
I guess my mucking makes me a bad player. So be it. I can live with it. Can you all?

JT
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:22 PM
(#18)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
Punching it into the odds calculator giving the 2 opponents similar ranges of any pair, any A, any K and a bunch of suited and unsuited connectors, it's saying I'm winning about 25% of the time.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:33 PM
(#19)
Deleted user
If you make every +Ev play you come across you will be out of a tourney more times than if you picked the spots better.
You need 4:1 to call and 3.9 is pretty close.
But you are also presuming that one of these guys doesnt have a a pair already.
So it is a easy fold for me when you can attack like sized stacks and steal from them to make up the difference.
 
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Thu Apr 07, 2011, 11:46 PM
(#20)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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Sometimes when I go all in with stuff like AJ, I'll lose to 78o ... as a matter of fact that happened to me yesterday

But I guess this isn't about me and my sad stories (LOL) I just wanted to add that since "sidsh" called somebody else's raise and they still had some time to shove before they're blinded out, I'd tend to think they called because thought they had a good chance of winning the hand, even assuming "WilyECoyote" was shoving for the same reason (rather than just trying to steal blinds).

But I guess that shouldn't matter if the pot odds are right? Wow, blinds were so high! I don't usually make it that far in any games I play

How'd you do in the tourney?

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 11:50 PM..
 

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