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FLHE Micro Sit&Go - Good Checkraise and River Barrel, Or Too Presumptuous?

 
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FLHE Micro Sit&Go - Good Checkraise and River Barrel, Or Too Presumptuous? - Fri Apr 08, 2011, 12:10 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So, my Fixed Limit knowledge is a little underdeveloped, but I'm having one of those tilt days, so I decided to take a shot at a $1 FLHE Sit&Go to cool off. It ended with a rather cathartic heads-up match between me and a very passive opponent, who I defeated with the power of anger. Anyway, I ran into a hand along the way that made me think, so I'm posting it here.

First off, I was reading forums while playing the tourney. I wasn't paying much attention to the table, until we were 3-handed and I really couldn't get away. FTR isn't showing the stack info, but I was far and away the chip leader at the time, and the villain only had about six big bets at the start of the hand, to my twenty-one.

To speed along this post, I'm listing the critical decision points as I see them, with minimal fluff. Maybe the fluff is useful info, but I'll cut it out for now to see how this post turns out. Like a new recipe.

(Critical decision point #1) I decided to open with KJo from the cutoff. The button 3bet me. I decided to go with the hand (critical decision point #2), so I called. I flopped air, but I felt I had odds to see a turn card, so I called (critical decision point #3). On the turn, I hit my high card, so I checkraised (critical decision points #4 [check] and #5 [raise]), and the villain just called. On the river, I bet once more (critical decision point #6). The villain called me again, and we went to showdown. As the thread title suggests, I'm most curious about the line I took from the turn on. But help me out with the whole thing if you want. Thankee!

PokerStars Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Panicky's M: 14.40

Preflop: Panicky is CO with J, K
2 folds, Panicky raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Panicky calls

Flop: (7.5 SB) 3, 9, 3 (2 players)
Panicky checks, Button bets, Panicky calls

Turn: (4.75 BB) K (2 players)
Panicky checks, Button bets, Panicky raises, Button calls

River: (8.75 BB) 3 (2 players)
Panicky bets, Button calls

Total pot: t2150 (10.75 BB)
 
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Fri Apr 08, 2011, 07:09 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Thought #1:
3 handed, I can see why you'd open raise with KJ, especially if you had been aggressive thus far and are the big stack. When the button 3 bets you that isn't really any reason to fold, but it IS time to start thinking aobut what you need to continue past the flop.

Thought #2:
Without anything but semi-weak overcard draws, and back door flush chances to the non-nut flush, why check/call the turn bet?
Sure, you are getting 7.5 to 1, but is that ENOUGH to keep going?

Due to the flop texture, and his pre-flop 3 bet, a lot of your "outs" are questionable. Limit Hold 'em is almost as much about bets you do not LOSE, as bets you win, so continuing here with no real clarity of whether any out you hit is actually going to do it for you will tend to lead to you bleeding off chips rather than raking them in.

Thought #3:
You hit your K, and picked up the flush draw. You check raise. This is pretty dangerous tbh, as the size of the pot means he is likely to call you. That is prefectly fine for you if he holds something like QQ, but what if he holds the Qc? I think you flop call "stuck" you here, but with only a J kicker, and the flush draw, I'm much more inclined to prefer a check/call.

Let me ask you: do you fold if he caps it here?

Thought #4:
River is great for you, as it alleviates your kicker worries, as well as flush worries. You lead, which I tink is perfectly fine; I just do not think you really needed to still be in this pot...

Now let's look at your first "mistake" (as I see it), continuing after the flop misses you...

Yes, you are getting 7.5 to 1 to call, but your "clean" outs are what? NADA!

The fact is, if you hit a J, he may have a better kicker. He may have started stronger than JJ as well, due to the 3 bet.
Only AA is stronger than your Ks up if you spike the K, but isn't AK, and maybe KQ in a 3 bettor's range?

So the J's (3) are probably "worth" no more than 1.5 to 2 "outs" to you.
1 of the Ks puts a possible flush out there, so with kicker worries also, you probably can only count the 3 Ks as worth 1 to 1.5 outs.
chances are pretty good that you are not ahead of a short stacked 3 bettor, so you MUST spike...
Let's say you have the equivalent of 3 "outs".

3 outs, divided by 47 "unknown" cards, equals about a 6.4% chance to hit the turn.
Getting 7.5 to 1, you need more like an 11.8% chance to keep going. Even if all the Js, and all but the Kc is a "clean" out for you, you have only about a 10.6% chance to hit on the turn...still not enough. This is not even factoring in the potential FUTURE bets you may lose if you do hit an "out" but he hits it harder (like if he holds AcKx)...

Next "mistake" (as I see it):
Your turn Check/Raise is only "justifiable" if it is made with the intention of FOLDING to any re-raise. At that point you are "raising for information", seeking the ability to FOLD your spiked K because the opponent is on better.

To me, your hand simply does not hold the sort of "value" ou need to do that on the now flushed board. You DO have "calling value", as there is enough of a chance the villain will bet on less than the K, but you haven;t got enough of a hand on this board to be raising.

Ok...

With all that said, I am thinking you ended up making 3s full of Ks, and ended up beating a hand like QQ/JJ/TT, am I right? I'm not entirely certain of this, but it "feels" like that to me based on the action after your check raise.

If I AM right, and you did end up winning this one (or chopping with a KQ/AK holding a higher club), then you got really lucky...

Truth be told, I do not think you really HAD to be in this hand past the flop, and if you did end up taking it down, you got pretty lucky.
 
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Fri Apr 08, 2011, 08:26 AM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
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