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2/5c micro stake cash game

 
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2/5c micro stake cash game - Mon Apr 11, 2011, 06:03 AM
(#1)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
The game is 2c/5c full ring cash game. I've brought $5 to the table.

Situation so far. I've only been at the table about 25 hands. The villian has a VPIP and PFR of 30% each. I watched him in a pot about 15 hands ago 3bet on a Jh 3c Tc flop and fold to a reraise allin to $4. This is the 3rd time he's 3 bet in the 25 hands.

In my hand I just called preflop as I don't wanna play a big pot with this agressive guy without a hand. On the flop he checks so I bet with my draw to try and take it there. He check raises.

I'm thinking he is bullying and bluffing here and even if he has a hand I have 13 outs to the nuts. I think he will fold to the 4bet allin. I didn't want to call to only see 1 more card before deciding to commit or not.

Do I have any other options here? Can i fold? Is 13 outs enough to be +EV given the 5% rake at the table?

 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 08:30 AM
(#2)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
I'm just hanging out in this thread for the help as well, but wow did the villain have a trip or did they call your raise with just AK? What if you had AA? That would have been kind of reckless of them to call your raise if all they had was AK.

Sometimes if I wind up at a table with somebody like that I just get up and leave and try to find a table with people who play microstakes tables like they too feel like pennies matter. Then again I sat at one of those tables the other day and only made 3 cents after an hour ... although I didn't lose anything either
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 12:13 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
You're a 3-1 favorite after the flop against a random hand. Someone with that big of a chip stack at one of those (from the few I've played).... will normally try to bully the table and play about ATC.

If it was me, I'd have probably called the flop raise and saw another card for this reason... yes, you have a ton of outs, but you have nothing for a made hand (even if he's playing ATC... he could have hit bottom pair and be ahead of you). I'd have waited to push until I had a made hand (pair or the flush), since it's only 1 other player in the hand.... if there were multiple people in it, then I'd think about pushing, to isolate against one person.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 01:07 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
You're saying this is the third time he's 3b since you sat, but he isn't 3 betting, he's only open raising.

I like the preflop flat with AQs on 100 bb's effective. Also like the flop bet when he checks to you. Noticing he failed to c-bet, what's his c-bet %? Is this normal for him or abnormal? Generally without a read it means either a weak hand or a really strong one. You make a good semi-bluff and he check/raises small. This pretty much polarizes his range imo to weak made hands or air (strongest probably being QQ) just seeing if you are bluffing, and really strong hands like a set. I like your 3b shove as a semi-bluff... obviously he's not folding sets or AA/AK if he's taking this line with those, but you do have a lot of outs to subsidize this play. If you can get him to fold stuff like QQ/JJ that's a pretty good result.

Would be curious to see the formal math worked through for semi-bluffing vs. flatting (assuming he follows up with a pot sized turn bet when we flat).
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 06:26 AM
(#5)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
You're saying this is the third time he's 3b since you sat, but he isn't 3 betting, he's only open raising.
Sorry I mean reraising rather than 3betting.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Would be curious to see the formal math worked through for semi-bluffing vs. flatting (assuming he follows up with a pot sized turn bet when we flat).
How would I do this math?

Calculate my EV against what i think his range is now? Then % i hit my draw on the next street and he folds and the % i miss my draw and I fold to a turn bet?

I think I'm reverting to shoving too often here so I'd like to know really
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 07:35 AM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Did the villain have a hand?

And that looks suspiciously like a mass of German beer in your avatar pic....

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 07:37 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 03:38 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
Sorry I mean reraising rather than 3betting.
He's raising. He can't reraise if there's no raise in front of him yet.


Quote:
How would I do this math?

Calculate my EV against what i think his range is now? Then % i hit my draw on the next street and he folds and the % i miss my draw and I fold to a turn bet?

I think I'm reverting to shoving too often here so I'd like to know really
Yes, the math would be a comparison of our expectation semi-bluffing all in, vs. flatting and folding to a pot sized turn bet when we don't improve.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 05:24 AM
(#8)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
He's raising. He can't reraise if there's no raise in front of him yet.
I'm referring to the post flop play. Unless I've got my terminology wrong .

He checks
I raise
He reraises
I shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Yes, the math would be a comparison of our expectation semi-bluffing all in, vs. flatting and folding to a pot sized turn bet when we don't improve.
OK let me try the maths.

At the time I probably thought about 50% air (or very weak) and he folds and 50% strong hand and i need to hit my draw.

So I've attached my maths.

Because of the rake it looks like a losing proposition either way. -2c if I Shove. -16c if I flat call.

Fiddling with the range %'s the breakeven is 45% air and 55% strong. Which gives -13c either way, which is still better than folding which is -55c.

If he has air only 25% of the time the EV is -54c

This seems really wierd to me. I dunno if I've done something wrong in here.

Last edited by TOO2COO; Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 12:55 PM.. Reason: ZIP FILES REMOVED
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 05:28 AM
(#9)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
For those that are interested his hand and the outcome is below.

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V

Click to show hidden text
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 05:43 AM
(#10)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Ignoring the fact this is my 3rd post in a row and I'm effectively talking to myself now. I think I see where I've gone wrong.

He has KQo and calls my shove. Which I thought was a horrible call. But looking at it from his perspective. I might have reraised him preflop with AA, KK or AK so he's only behind 33,TT.

My shove probably looks like exactly what it is. Me on a very good draw and not wanting a call.

Maybe my best line here is 4bet to $2 or something and consider myself commited (so call any shove or bet on the turn & river). Then it might look like AK or a loose preflop call with KT.

Or he's a donk and thinks top pair is always good and will raise and call no matter what

Thoughts?
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 10:02 AM
(#11)
EA2USN's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 176
BronzeStar
You state in post #1 that you have 13 outs to the nuts. You have 12 outs to the nuts 9 clubs, and the the 3 non club Jacks. 9+3 = 12

That gives you roughly 12*4 or 48% chance of making your hand by the river.

Last edited by EA2USN; Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 10:23 AM..
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 10:30 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Yeah, it's a terminology thing.

He checks
You bet
He raises
you reraise

The first bet is always a bet, not a raise.

I'll have a look at your math in a bit.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 10:32 AM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Sorry, no offense, but I'm not opening any zip file from anyone I don't know. There's no reason at all not to post the math in the body of a post, rather than uplaoding a zip file. Please post your math if you wish it reviewed.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 12:01 PM
(#14)
flophitter's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 2,959
* We advise members not to attach zip files or any other files that may be viewed with suspicion by fellow members. The above attachment has been verified as safe. It is best to incorporate the information into the body of the post if at all possible. Thank you* flophitter (Hi all, just joined the team as moderator)
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 01:43 PM
(#15)
EA2USN's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 176
BronzeStar
Hi Flop

Thanks for the checking the file.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 04:22 PM
(#16)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Sorry guys the zip file was an excel file that contained my working.

These also a screenshot of the spreadsheet with the maths.

I just included the spreadsheet incase anyone wanted to fiddle.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 04:25 PM
(#17)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Yeah, it's a terminology thing.

He checks
You bet
He raises
you reraise

The first bet is always a bet, not a raise.

I'll have a look at your math in a bit.
OK, whats the correct terminology for him making making the 2nd non-blind bet.
ie 3bet preflop and the raise post flop.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 04:38 PM
(#18)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by EA2USN View Post
You state in post #1 that you have 13 outs to the nuts. You have 12 outs to the nuts 9 clubs, and the the 3 non club Jacks. 9+3 = 12

That gives you roughly 12*4 or 48% chance of making your hand by the river.
My bad, yeah 12 outs to the nuts. Which is just over 51% (12/47 + 12/46 roughly)
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 05:15 PM
(#19)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahar010 View Post
Sorry guys the zip file was an excel file that contained my working.

These also a screenshot of the spreadsheet with the maths.

I just included the spreadsheet incase anyone wanted to fiddle.
OK, i'm reuploading the screenshot and adding a link to my spreadsheet in google docs

I've updated the linked spreadsheet for the correct 12 outs rather than 13 as pointed out by EA2USN. This makes the flat calling option a little worse

TheMaths.xls
Attached Images
File Type: jpg TheMaths.jpg (64.7 KB, 2 views)

Last edited by ahar010; Wed Apr 13, 2011 at 05:19 PM..
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 05:24 PM
(#20)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by flophitter View Post
* We advise members not to attach zip files or any other files that may be viewed with suspicion by fellow members. The above attachment has been verified as safe. It is best to incorporate the information into the body of the post if at all possible. Thank you* flophitter (Hi all, just joined the team as moderator)
How does one qualify as a moderator after being in the forum less than a month and having one post?

I would just be interested to know as I have no intention of being a moderator; I would ban almost everyone LOL
 

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