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right call with a gut shot?

 
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right call with a gut shot? - Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:17 PM
(#1)
bashy27's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 57
BronzeStar
PokerStars Game #60674386218: Tournament #384512898, $0.25+$0.00 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2011/04/11 14:10:03 ET
Table '384512898 3' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: jorgeg xd (2510 in chips)
Seat 2: PabloAimar15 (7120 in chips)
Seat 3: chibilly (1228 in chips)
Seat 4: Petur Getov (5281 in chips)
Seat 6: voland2012 (16805 in chips)
Seat 7: EuroKeeper I (7185 in chips)
Seat 8: bashy27 (9012 in chips)
Seat 9: maitrii (18359 in chips)
jorgeg xd: posts the ante 25
PabloAimar15: posts the ante 25
chibilly: posts the ante 25
Petur Getov: posts the ante 25
voland2012: posts the ante 25
EuroKeeper I: posts the ante 25
bashy27: posts the ante 25
maitrii: posts the ante 25
EuroKeeper I: posts small blind 200
bashy27: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bashy27 [6s 3c]
maitrii: calls 400
jorgeg xd: folds
PabloAimar15: folds
chibilly: calls 400
Petur Getov: folds
voland2012: folds
EuroKeeper I: folds
bashy27: checks
*** FLOP *** [Qd 5d 7c]
bashy27: checks
maitrii: checks
chibilly: bets 803 and is all-in
bashy27: calls 803
maitrii: folds
*** TURN *** [Qd 5d 7c] [As]
*** RIVER *** [Qd 5d 7c As] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bashy27: shows [6s 3c] (a pair of Queens)
chibilly: shows [Tc Qs] (three of a kind, Queens)
chibilly collected 3206 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3206 | Rake 0
Board [Qd 5d 7c As Qc]
Seat 1: jorgeg xd folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: PabloAimar15 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: chibilly showed [Tc Qs] and won (3206) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 4: Petur Getov folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: voland2012 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: EuroKeeper I (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: bashy27 (big blind) showed [6s 3c] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 9: maitrii folded on the Flop
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:31 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
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With a gutshot, it's a fold.... here's why.

there are 1625 chips in the pot preflop. Your opponent bet 803, or 49% of the pot. Your opponent SHOULD have either a Q or two diamonds. If you do have 4 outs to your gutshot (assuming they don't have diamonds), then you are a 16% favorite... if they have diamonds, then that loses you one out (4 of diamonds), so you have 3 outs and are at 12%.

Their bet is way more than either the 16% or 12% of the time that you can win, so it's an easy fold.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:43 PM
(#3)
bashy27's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 57
BronzeStar
does that also include that the pot odds gave 3 to 1 on my money, 800 chips into a pot of 2400, and the possibility of eliminating a player?

this was also the final table with top 7 cashing.

only asking as still trying to get to grips with the pot odds/implied odds, correct odds, outs etc.

Last edited by bashy27; Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 02:55 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 02:58 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
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they are at 49% with putting their chips in (means they should have a made hand). Counting theirs, you're at 803 into 2400, or 33%.

You can't win the hand 33% of the time... you're at either 16% or 12%, so it's too many to put into this pot and therefore you need to fold.

Unless this is a KO tourney or KOing this person gets you up a pay level, where you get extra $$$ from a knockout, that's really irrevelant.... too many people use this as a reason to call a bet, when it shouldn't mean anything at the time.
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 03:06 PM
(#5)
bashy27's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 57
BronzeStar
thanks, that makes more sense , in future auto fold

i'm guessing its a call if up and down though?
 
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Mon Apr 11, 2011, 03:35 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
if both ends open, then you have 8 outs or 32% IF they don't have diamonds..... or 6 outs, 24% if they did have diamonds.

If you put them on diamonds, it's an auto-fold there too. If you don't put them on diamonds, it's marginal (32% to win at 33% pot odds).
 

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