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Odds and outs!

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Odds and outs! - Tue Apr 12, 2011, 11:23 AM
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o0o0AcEo0o0's Avatar
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Okay, I have never focussed really to much on odds and my % to hit a hand and what not. I want to learn this part of poker because I feel that this is something I need to improve to develop more as a player.

I would like to know the "easiest" way to get a basic grasp on using math in my game. I see players sending links to sites that look like equations only a freakin rocket scientist would be able to figure out.

I know the 2 and 4 rule, but I am kind of confused about the 2:1 or 5:1 and figuring out if I am a 2 to 1 under dog or favorite. Please help me develop a basic plan to get me started in the world of poker math! I have been playing solidly since feb of this year and have already turned $50 into more than $600 playing mtts and ring games, so I am not a loosing or break even player, but I do have room to grow!

Thank you in advance for any advice or help that you give me!

Ace-
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 03:21 PM
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Booo!! NObody has anything to say?? C'mon!
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 06:08 PM
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topthecat's Avatar
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The maths side of the game is something I struggle with too Ace.

It would be good if we got some responses which I am sure we will at some point.

TC
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 07:06 PM
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Yea, hopefully we do! =)
 
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Tue Apr 12, 2011, 10:09 PM
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Here are a couple. I'll post more thoughts later.

Knowing how to count outs and the rule of 2 & 4 is a good starting place. Remember that you need to know what outs your opponent may need to complete their hands (I call this offensive odds).

Next you need to know some general situation stats like flopping a set is ~8:1 against. Somewhere I have a link to a list of these but I'm too lazy to dig it up now. I'll post it later.
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 12:47 AM
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aight thx man!
 
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Wed Apr 13, 2011, 10:22 PM
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TrumpinJoe's Avatar
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The link below shows the odds of various situations you will face in HE games.

http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:14 AM
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R1J1J's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o0o0AcEo0o0 View Post
Okay, I have never focussed really to much on odds and my % to hit a hand and what not. I want to learn this part of poker because I feel that this is something I need to improve to develop more as a player.

I would like to know the "easiest" way to get a basic grasp on using math in my game. I see players sending links to sites that look like equations only a freakin rocket scientist would be able to figure out.

I know the 2 and 4 rule, but I am kind of confused about the 2:1 or 5:1 and figuring out if I am a 2 to 1 under dog or favorite. Please help me develop a basic plan to get me started in the world of poker math! I have been playing solidly since feb of this year and have already turned $50 into more than $600 playing mtts and ring games, so I am not a loosing or break even player, but I do have room to grow!

Thank you in advance for any advice or help that you give me!

Ace-
Odds
%
and
EV

All look at the same thing in different ways. They are not compatible. You need to pick one system and work with it. Odds are given in how big of a dog you are to make your hand. EV would be the most math intensive system you could use.

Examples

You have a flush draw on the flop what are the odds of making your hand by the turn?

Outs = 9

Pot = $100

Your opponent bets $25

Pot odds = 125/25 = 5:1

2 4 rule

9(2)=18%

We need to change our pot odds to a % so we can compare the two.

5:1

5+1=6

1/6=0.167

0.167(100)=16.7%

You would make the call because your chance of winning is higher.

Odds

52-5=47

47-9=38

38/9=4.22 so you are a 4.22:1 dog against making your hand and you have pot odds of 5:1 so you would make the call.

EV

Lets say we want to know if raising with our draw is a good play.

EV = % fold (pot) + % call {[win % (amount win)] + [lose % (amount lose)]}

Lets say our opponents range is AT+ and TT+

Call % = calling combos / total betting combos

Total combos

AK = 3(4) = 12
AQ = 3(4) = 12
AJ = 3(4) = 12
AT = 3(3) = 9

KK = 6
QQ = 6
JJ = 6
AA = 3
TT = 3

Total = 69 combos

Lets say they'll 4 bet a raise with:

AA = 3
TT = 3
AT = 9
AK = 12
AQ = 12

Total = 39

Call % = calling combos / total betting combos

Call % = 39/69 = 0.565217

Folding % = 1-call %

1-0.565217 = 0.434783

Win % and lose %

We'll use poker stove


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec

Board: Ac 2c Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.957% 34.96% 00.00% 23879 0.00 { 8c7c }
Hand 1: 65.043% 65.04% 00.00% 44431 0.00 { TT+, ATs+, ATo+ }

Amount win = the pot total with our bet.

The pot is $100 and they bet $25. Lets say we are thinking of raising to $75 so 125+75=$200. We know the other player will not bluff.

Pot = $125

Amount we can lose = our bet so $75.

Now we put it all together.

EV = % fold (pot) + % call {[win % (amount win)] + [lose % (amount lose)]}

0.434783(125) + 0.565217 {[0.34957(200)] + [0.65043(75)]}

54.3479 + 0.565217 {[0.34957(200)] + [0.65043(-75)]}

54.3479 + 0.565217 {69.914 + (-48.7823)}

54.3479 + 0.565217 {21.1317}

54.3479 + 11.944

66.2919

As you can see our play is +EV which means we make money on it.
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Next you need to know some general situation stats like flopping a set is ~8:1 against. .
The odds might be 8:1 but that doesn't mean he should call with those odds. If your just set mining then you need 15:1. That means you need to be able to make at least 15x what he has to call or more post flop on Ave....
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:24 AM
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http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:47 AM
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nice r1 but how do you figure all this out while in a hand ? do you just keep practicing these calculations over and over again or something
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 08:40 AM
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When your first beginning to calculate your outs it seems like everything is a mess. Overtime/practicing they will start to become second nature to you. Like when you see a flush draw out there you will automatically you know 9outs 36% or 18% on turn or you flop an open ended straight draw you will know 8 outs(four in front, four in back) and wont have to calculate it 32% and 16%.

I suggest practice it every hand. Even hands that you have folded look at what cards you would have needed to hit your hand and calculate the outs and percentages until this becomes second nature to you.
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 10:33 AM
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okay cool man i will give It a shot thx
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 10:26 PM
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R1J1J's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o0o0AcEo0o0 View Post
nice r1 but how do you figure all this out while in a hand ? do you just keep practicing these calculations over and over again or something
I made a chart and remebered it. There are certain spots that come up a lot in poker I would start with those. You do need to be able to figure your outs.

EX

Inside Straight
outs = 4
1 card% = 9%
1 card odds = 10:1
2 card% = 17%
2card odds = 5:1

Open Straight
outs = 8
1 card% = 17
1 card odds = 4.7
2 card% = 32
2card odds = 2.2

Flush draw
outs = 9
1 card% = 19
1 card odds = 4.1
2 card% = 35
2card odds = 1.9

Inside Straight & one Overcard
Inside Straight & Two Overcards
Open Straight & One Overcard
Open Straight & Two Overcards
Flush & One Overcard
Flush & Two Overcards
Flush & Inside Straight
Flush & Open Straight
Set to Full House
Two Pair to Full House

ect


There's a chart on this link http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

As a side note you should also know preflop odds and post flop odds are not the same.

Some preflop odds


pair vs smaller pair 4:1

pair vs higher cards 1.2:1

pair vs lower cards 4:1

high pair vs lower high cards 5.7:1

pair vs one higher and one lower card 2.3:1

pair vs dominated overcard 2.3:1

pair vs dominated undercard 9:1

high cards vs lower cards 1.5:1

high cards vs two inbetween 1.5:1

high ace vs dominated ace 3:1

Last edited by R1J1J; Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 10:35 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 12:29 AM
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I guess I could give a lesson

Terms

Odds = Chance of losing

Probability = Chance of winning

Equity = Your equity is basically the amount of the pot that ‘belongs’ to you based on the odds you have to win at a particular point in the hand

Out = any unseen card that, if drawn, will improve a player's hand to one that is likely to win.

EV = is used to describe the long-term average outcome of a given scenario.


Odds

odds are written as follows:

EX:

4:1 or 4 to 1

In poker you always set odds to one.

What do odds mean?

EX:

4:1

You have a 1 out of 5 chance of winning (you add the left side to the right side).

EX

14:4

14 = How many times something won't happen.

4 = How many times something will happen.

You want the right side to be one.

14/4:4/4

3.5:1

Changing odds to probability

4:1

add the left and right side together

4+1=5

put a one over that number

1/5

1/5=0.20

0.20(100)=20%

Changing probability to odds

20%

20/100=0.20

put a one under that number

0.20/1.00

bottom - top

1.00-0.20=0.80

put that number on the left and the original number on the right

0.80:0.20

now set to one

0.80/0.20:0.20/0.20

4:1
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 09:36 AM
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gsxr5221's Avatar
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That is a good lesson on changing from odds to percentages and back...better than most lessons I have seen (easier to understand).
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 11:12 AM
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R1J1J's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gsxr5221 View Post
That is a good lesson on changing from odds to percentages and back...better than most lessons I have seen (easier to understand).
Thanks
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 12:38 PM
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if you use the rule of two and four how do you figure out what percentage of the pot you have to call?
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 01:07 PM
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R1J1J's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by o0o0AcEo0o0 View Post
if you use the rule of two and four how do you figure out what percentage of the pot you have to call?
For the equity (thats what the 2 4 rule calculates) you want to compare your pot odds to your chance of winning. You want your chance of winning to be higher then the % you get from your pot odds.

EX

You have an open ended straight. Thats 8 outs so useing the 2 4 rule we have 2(8)+1=17% chance of winning.

Lets say our pot odds are 6:1

6+1=7

1/7=0.14(100)=14%

So you would make the call. In the long run you would make money on your call.
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 01:11 PM
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i can't divide 1/7 in my head while playing .... what do i do???

do i just need to do it over and over again or make some sort of chart like you said you did?
 

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