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Betting amounts to protect pocket rockets

 
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Betting amounts to protect pocket rockets - Thu Apr 14, 2011, 11:51 AM
(#1)
GDGamble's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 5
BronzeStar
I'll put this in the replayer and link it if it's not clear from just this post.

The overall situation was I had AA with a 7k stack and opponent had QQ with 1500k stack.

I was in middle position and he was in small blind

1 limper behind me, I raise $450 he calls and limper calls pot is 1500

Flop is K99 I bet 600 he calls, limper folds pot is 2700

headsup I have 90% chance of taking the pot

turn is an 8, no chance of a flush on the board I bet 900, he calls all in

River is a Q he's up 2185


Should I have put him in an all-in situation after the flop or was this hand destined to be cracked?

Obviously now that I can look back at each of our percentages I can calculate his pot odds for each bet, but I'm not good enough to read hands to figure what would give someone bad pot odds.
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 11:57 AM
(#2)
Cheon57's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
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Pre-flop he called with almost 1/3 of his stack so I seriously doubt that an all-in post flop or even preflop shove for that matter would have changed this outcome.
Just one of those hands.
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:39 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
If I interpret your dialogue correctly, he's got a 10 bb stack and QQ. He's not folding this pre nor should he. In fact the call by him is pretty terrible, he should ship pre tbh.

As played, if he's going to stack it off with an overcard on the board post flop, I'd say it's safe to assume there is nothing you do differently to fold him out at any point. But that's really not a good question, it's highly results oriented (you would't be asking it if the river was a 2 instead of a Q). You don't want QQ to fold to your AA, you want his stack in the middle. Unfortunately sometimes the 2 outter gets there.

In the future please do post the actual hand history for hand analsys.

Dave

Last edited by TheLangolier; Thu Apr 14, 2011 at 01:41 PM..
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 01:55 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by GDGamble View Post
I'll put this in the replayer and link it if it's not clear from just this post.

The overall situation was I had AA with a 7k stack and opponent had QQ with 1500k stack.

I was in middle position and he was in small blind

1 limper behind me, I raise $450 he calls and limper calls pot is 1500

Flop is K99 I bet 600 he calls, limper folds pot is 2700

headsup I have 90% chance of taking the pot

turn is an 8, no chance of a flush on the board I bet 900, he calls all in

River is a Q he's up 2185


Should I have put him in an all-in situation after the flop or was this hand destined to be cracked?

Obviously now that I can look back at each of our percentages I can calculate his pot odds for each bet, but I'm not good enough to read hands to figure what would give someone bad pot odds.
Much better to put the hand up.

First:

Quote:
Originally Posted by GDGamble View Post
headsup I have 90% chance of taking the pot
PRE-FLOP, against a totally RANDOM range held by 1 opponent, you have roughly 85% equity. But since this post flop, and 2 opponents who called a pre-flop raise, then 1 who called a decently solid flop bet, I'm pretty sure your equity is considerably less. Absent read indications by you, how much less isn't really clear.

As for your question:

When you ARE "ahead", you really should not be thinking about ways to bet them off a weak draw; you should be thinking about getting as much value into the pot without letting them draw for a good price. It APPEARS from your post that the blinds are 25/50? If so, the only reason to be raising to 9BBis that you think people will actually CALL that amount pre-flop. With AA, you need not fear anyone holding a better pre-flop hand, but you do run the risk of folding out a LOT of lesser hands which may have called along, thus denying yourself value.

OK...

On this flop you are either WAY ahead, or way behind. If way ahead, you obvious want him putting his remaining chips in, and if way behind you want to avoid any greater chip loss if you can help it...pretty obvious, huh?

If he calls off about 1/3rd of his stack to see the flop, it is pretty doubtful he is going to fold no matter what comes. This means any bet you make on this flop is pretty much committing YOU for the remainder of his stack as well.

Check/Folding to a turn shove is pretty weak with AA on a non-draw board, So there is really nothing wrong with your flop bet.

You state there is no chance of a flush on the board, but was there now a chance for a flush DRAW to be there (again, posting the actual hand is better)? If so, turn lanching is perfectly fine. By that point he is VERY deep into this pot, and is almost certainly calling, but at least you are testing his ability to fold weak DRAWS before any actually get there, and preventing him from floding a hand like JT/QT that does NOT get there on the river. If there were no flush draws possible, at lest he is so deep he probably has to call your 900 bet.

So as Cheon said, this one was pretty much all over from his perspective when he called your 450 raise pre-flop.
 
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Thu Apr 14, 2011, 04:42 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
When you ARE "ahead", you really should not be thinking about ways to bet them off a weak draw; you should be thinking about getting as much value into the pot without letting them draw for a good price.
YES!!!!!!!
 

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