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Set on the turn, straight draw on board

 
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Set on the turn, straight draw on board - Thu Apr 14, 2011, 10:55 PM
(#1)
ssuglia's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,393
BronzeStar
This was the first hand I played at this table, and I had cicked to post the BB from UTG+1.

So needless to say I have no reads whatsoever.

I got to see a cheap flop with 88 as no one raised, and I was wlling to let my hand go on the flop, but it was checked around.

The turn was my 8, but put a straight draw and flush draw out there. I raise here knowing I'm ahead and that I'm up against draws and/or one pair.

The river wasn't really what I wanted to see, as it's possible that one (or both) of the blinds could have a 7, but still think I'm ahead here. To me, the flush draw seemed much more likely after the turn. Now I'm left with a decision to make...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($0.76)
SB ($0.78)
BB ($2.12)
UTG ($0.80)
ssuglia (UTG+1) ($0.80)
MP1 ($1.22)
MP2 ($0.42)
CO ($0.32)

Preflop: ssuglia is UTG+1 with 8, 8
UTG calls $0.02, ssuglia checks, 3 folds, Button calls $0.02, SB calls $0.01, BB checks

Flop: ($0.10) 10, 6, K (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, ssuglia checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.10) 8 (5 players)
SB bets $0.04, BB calls $0.04, 1 fold, ssuglia raises to $0.26, 1 fold, SB calls $0.22, BB calls $0.22

River: ($0.88) 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.26,
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 12:01 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
That's a tough one. You saw the flop cheap, which is ok, as it hides your hand's possible strength. Check the flop when you missed and bet the turn with set of 8's. The TWO callers of that would scare me too. One of them, I'd automatically put on a big K (AK or KQ) but with both of them being in the blinds..... they really could have almost anything.

For me, this one would come down to gut feeling. More often than not, I'd be calling their bet and making them show me a 7.... hoping he was on AK. If it wasn't the blinds that were in the hand, it's a pretty easy call (only thing I'd then be worried about is 77).

I'll be real interested in seeing Dave's comments on this one.
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 03:06 AM
(#3)
Deleted user
Do you usually post just before a blind is about to hit?
Wait for the BB unless you see a player on mega tilt that will be busto within 3-5 hands.
Two reasons for this:
1.)Fish and action junkies dont wait for the BB to play.Its usually a good tell at a table to help piece a picture of a player.
2.)Its a good habit to get into before you move up.

So looking at the hand.
I tend to be overly aggressive at these tables to establish a image and exploit it later.
So I would be stabbing on the flop after SB and BB check.They most likely have connector,suited type garbage and if they call you have a tighter range for them.Button limped behindwhich is usually a player that folds to most flops when they dont hit,so if they call you can also close up there range.Betting 6 cents on the flop and folding to a raise isnt horrible here.
UTG may be a problem but you will find out pretty quick.
Something you will notice is that multi way pots play pretty straight forward.
People will call if they have a draw,fold everything else and most of the time raise two pair out of fear of getting sucked out.

As played:
You overbet the pot by a bit and some players either see that as a bluff or you got it,since you have no reads Its hard to say how they see it.I would see it as you got a piece but not the nuts,only because you bought in early.

So UTG folds his A9 suited hand and SB and BB call.
As stated earlier they would raise you if it was 2 pair at this point.
So Im putting them on a draw and King something for the other player.
TT is not limping preflop to often.
66 is a possibility.
KK not a chance,if they did they are building the pot by now and you better note they have no idea what they are doing.
So since we put them on a draw lets look at what they could have:
QJ most possible
AQ not likely calling Turn
J9 tend not to see that here out of experience,at least what I have seen.
78 not as likely since you hold two 8s and the other one is on the board
79 like J9 people dont call inside draws as much as they do outside draws
and of course a weak King
KQ,KJ,K9 types..

Now you have to look at his bet size on the river.Its weak but it is also the size you bet on the turn.
Fish love to copy cat and alittle off topic.I tend to over bet to get fish betting the same way and it can be profitable if you see them copying your bet sizing.

Villian has QJ most of the time and KQ,KJ,K9 the rest of it.
If you call Im not mad about it but at 10NL I would fold without reads.

Make a habit of clicking that red button,you some times find some good reads when you first sit down.

SO my vote is QJos here
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 05:41 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Assuming a call would end the action, Hero needs less than a 25% chance that he's not beat to profitably call. I don't even think a lot of villains at 5NL will notice that QJ makes the nuts here. The fact that the villain bet small here might be a tell. The lack of a large value bet might signify weakness. I'd say against a good 5NL player, it's a call. Against a fishy player, it's an obvious call.
 
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Fri Apr 15, 2011, 01:27 PM
(#5)
ssuglia's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,393
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
Do you usually post just before a blind is about to hit?
Wait for the BB unless you see a player on mega tilt that will be busto within 3-5 hands.
Two reasons for this:
1.)Fish and action junkies dont wait for the BB to play.Its usually a good tell at a table to help piece a picture of a player.
2.)Its a good habit to get into before you move up.
When I first started playing, I used to post the blind as soon as I sat down, no matter where I was sitting. I've cut down on that quite a bit, found I was pretty much throwing money away.

I hadn't checked the button to wait for the BB, so the table popped up and asked if I wanted to post, and I clicked yes without seeing what position I was in.

Quote:
So looking at the hand.
I tend to be overly aggressive at these tables to establish a image and exploit it later.
So I would be stabbing on the flop after SB and BB check.They most likely have connector,suited type garbage and if they call you have a tighter range for them.Button limped behindwhich is usually a player that folds to most flops when they dont hit,so if they call you can also close up there range.Betting 6 cents on the flop and folding to a raise isnt horrible here.
UTG may be a problem but you will find out pretty quick.
Something you will notice is that multi way pots play pretty straight forward.
People will call if they have a draw,fold everything else and most of the time raise two pair out of fear of getting sucked out.

As played:
You overbet the pot by a bit and some players either see that as a bluff or you got it,since you have no reads Its hard to say how they see it.I would see it as you got a piece but not the nuts,only because you bought in early.

So UTG folds his A9 suited hand and SB and BB call.
As stated earlier they would raise you if it was 2 pair at this point.
So Im putting them on a draw and King something for the other player.
TT is not limping preflop to often.
66 is a possibility.
KK not a chance,if they did they are building the pot by now and you better note they have no idea what they are doing.
So since we put them on a draw lets look at what they could have:
QJ most possible
AQ not likely calling Turn
J9 tend not to see that here out of experience,at least what I have seen.
78 not as likely since you hold two 8s and the other one is on the board
79 like J9 people dont call inside draws as much as they do outside draws
and of course a weak King
KQ,KJ,K9 types..

Now you have to look at his bet size on the river.Its weak but it is also the size you bet on the turn.
Fish love to copy cat and alittle off topic.I tend to over bet to get fish betting the same way and it can be profitable if you see them copying your bet sizing.

Villian has QJ most of the time and KQ,KJ,K9 the rest of it.
If you call Im not mad about it but at 10NL I would fold without reads.

Make a habit of clicking that red button,you some times find some good reads when you first sit down.

SO my vote is QJos here
Looking at the hand again, betting the flop might not have been such a bad idea.

I didn't think calling behind on the turn was a smart play, but I wasn't sure how much to bet here. I wanted them to keep chasing (since their weak bets told me they hadn't hit) so I didn't think a shove was right.

His river bet did smell like weakness, kind of like he hit something but thought he might still be behind.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Assuming a call would end the action, Hero needs less than a 25% chance that he's not beat to profitably call. I don't even think a lot of villains at 5NL will notice that QJ makes the nuts here. The fact that the villain bet small here might be a tell. The lack of a large value bet might signify weakness. I'd say against a good 5NL player, it's a call. Against a fishy player, it's an obvious call.
The SB still had to act behind me.

Thanks to all for the input here. I put myself into a tricky spot by posting early. In fact, this hand doesn't even get discussed if I don't make that decision, as I'm most likely mucking 88 from that position.

I made the call here, SB folded.

BB turned over K9o and I took down the pot.
 

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