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Blinds 12k SB steal attempt with any 2 - what to do?

 
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Blinds 12k SB steal attempt with any 2 - what to do? - Sat Apr 16, 2011, 05:14 PM
(#1)
VareckRay's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 182
Just wondering if I should fold this hand, 1st after the bubble has burst? I don't think so but I'm wondering if sometimes it's just worth waiting for the right moment rather than calling off my stack pre-flop, especially as I don't seem to run well in races lol

Ran it through pokerstove, at worst I'm 2/1 favourite given his pushing range. He had shoeved many times up till now don't think he had a hand once just got lucky a few times.



Thanks

Last edited by VareckRay; Sat Apr 16, 2011 at 05:18 PM..
 
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?? - Sat Apr 16, 2011, 05:19 PM
(#2)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
you have - what- 5 bbs remaining and prob way ahead of the sb shuv range there-- and the bubble has burst-- insta call from me-- gl monk..
 
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Sat Apr 16, 2011, 05:32 PM
(#3)
VareckRay's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
you have - what- 5 bbs remaining and prob way ahead of the sb shuv range there-- and the bubble has burst-- insta call from me-- gl monk..
Thanks Monk, I was willing him to shove, made up when he did pity he sucked out on me lol
 
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Sat Apr 16, 2011, 06:18 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
after the bubble burst, means you're ITM. Your goals here are to #1 accumulate chips to get to FT, #2.. move up the cash ladder.

With only 5BB left, since after the bubble, I'm pushing with AQ every single time.
 
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Sun Apr 17, 2011, 07:52 AM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
1) Your read range states you have 66% equity
2) You have an ugly 'M" to be folding this much of your stack, even if you are racing.
3) It is blind-on-blind with a similar stack, thus making an all-in blind steal attempt more "likely".

Most of the time this is a clear call.

Things that might effect that "go for it" decision:

1) You are on the bubble, and the ITM is significant for you.

<errrrrnt> not the case.

2) You are at the final Table.

ICM becomes a bigger factor in that case, and with a 20k type stack, plus 3 or 4 stacks of a SIMILIAR SIZE to yours even if you fold, you MAY be better off ladder climbing just bit (especially if the similar stacks are "actively moving" chips around). Money escalates very quickly at final tables, so even lasting just 1 or 2 more spots can be a good bit extra $.

<all you say is you are itm, one past the bubble>

3) Your range read is "in-effective".

AQo has about 64% equity versus a RANDOM range, but if the opponent is on more like a 20% to 21% range (any pp, any broadway, any A down to A8), then your equity falls to about 56%. What if you missed something about this guy's play, and the ONLY hands he will do this on are pocket pairs? Your equity is then just 41%...

Realistically, you can guage the "effectiveness" of your read range by answering these questions after the fact:
a) did I consider ALL possibilities, and all the information I possibly could before deciding?
b) was I "shocked" by the hand he showed?

Obviously you cannot know this until AFTER you decide, but what you CAN do is take a moment to think about how "comfortable" you feel with your read range after you've thought about all possibilities. If you do NOT run thru all the possibilities, or if you are really "un-sure" after considering all of them, then your read range is probably "in-effective".

Note: I do not bring this up to say your read range info IS in-effective. I do so simply to point out if, during the hand, you are not really sure about it, that COULD be a reason to dump.

So...

I'm inclined to say all the factors point to going for it here, but next time it may not be so clear.
 
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Mon Apr 18, 2011, 08:46 PM
(#6)
VareckRay's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 182
Hi JD, thanks for the in depth analysis, very much appreciated thank you

I think I made the right decision, the 2 points at the end

a) did I consider ALL possibilities, and all the information I possibly could before deciding?
b) was I "shocked" by the hand he showed?

regarding question (a) I believe so tho I cannot be entirely sure of that.
and (b) I was only surprised by the fact that his 34 was suited, seriously.

I had a good read on him and his shoving range in that position was literally any 2, my call was instant. A stronger player I would have at least thought about it

Thanks for the input, invaluable and even tho I believe I made the correct decision given the circumstances theres food for though for me in your analysis.

Cheers
 
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Tue Apr 19, 2011, 01:38 AM
(#7)
VareckRay's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 182
Thanks JW, It's good to know I at least made the correct decision even if it didn't work out this time. I've been in several similar situations since and they have worked out for me.


Thanks for your help
 

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