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did i screw this up? i think so

 
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did i screw this up? i think so - Sun Apr 17, 2011, 01:24 PM
(#1)
bashy27's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 57
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its a PSO game and still early in the game, i feel with hindsight i should of either barrelled on the flop or at very least check raised, to find out where i was.

why did i play way i did, well i raised from SB and got 3 calls, i figured at least one had a K.
 
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Sun Apr 17, 2011, 01:48 PM
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archide's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 229
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I make it a little more preflop to be honest, around 185-200.

The fold post flop is fine. I only saw to the point where there was a bet and a call. If you call here the pot is 1k with 1k behind. You can't call here and fold to 1/2 pot bet on the turn. If you're going to do that, save the 120 on the flop.

Excellent fold.

Last edited by archide; Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 06:37 PM.. Reason: typed fold not call the first time.
 
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Sun Apr 17, 2011, 11:02 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,800
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I agree. I'd have bet 150-200 total preflop... although this early in a pso, it won't be scaring many away and probably had the same result, even with a 250-300 bet. With the K on the flop, it's a fold for me, because with that many in, if there are any even remotely decent players, you're behind.

In this one, you tossed the best hand, but if it saves from busting you 9 out of 10 times... forget the 10th.
 
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Mon Apr 18, 2011, 04:33 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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At first I was thinking you should bet out, but I like the check. I can't see anything worse calling you except 78.

Original raiser checks, next guy checks...clearly you two have nothing, so the first guy with a piece makes a small bet assuming the first two are basically out and he only has to get through the button.

Look at the size of that bet! It's less than 1/5 the pot. That is a WEAK bet. Unless you've seen those two trapping with weak bets and calls, chances are neither one has a king. I know the flop was 4-way, but that bet represents a very weak hand, something like A9, 10 8, JT, or maybe a weak king like K4. The call is a little scary, but it feels like a float or just someone who wants to peel a card to a draw or kicker. With a good read I might lean toward a shove here. Neither player has shown strength, and you can even get some hands that beat you to fold (like most kings and even AK and AA if the player has the ability to lay it down). There's 900 in the pot and you have 1250. If you can take the pot down at least 58.14% of the time, you will show a profit even if you lose if called 100% of the time:

x=% of the time he calls

x(900)+(1-x)(1250)=0 --> x=58.14%

Even if called you probably still have 2 outs (as long as he doesn't have KKK, your QQQ will be good), which is an extra ~8% chance you win the big pot when called. Let's say that 25% of the time when called, even QQQ won't save you (KKK, and and the other sets could turn/river quads to kill QQQ. Probably an overly cautious number but anyhow), so now you have 6% :

x(900)+(1-x)((.94)(-1250)+.06(900+1250))=0 --> x=53.75%

Now he only has to fold around 54% of the time for this squeeze to be +EV.

You have huge fold equity for this squeeze too, as the second guy only barely has you covered. I think you can take down this pot far more than 54% of the time, making it very +EV. You will also build fear equity, showing that if someone decides to play a pot with you, they may have to make a decision for all their chips. I know it's early, but you should be willing to take risks, especially with fold equity on your side.

Hope this helps.

For what it's worth, when I saw the cutoff bet the flop my immediate thought was she had a 9 like A9 or 10 9. Button also seemed to have a weak hand like 10 10, A9, 88, J9, etc. Maybe a weak K. Neither one showed strength.
 
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Mon Apr 18, 2011, 06:43 PM
(#5)
archide's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 229
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(like most kings and even AK and AA if the player has the ability to lay it down).

I don't think this is accurate.

I don't think that there is a bet and a call, even with the low bet sizing and fold to a shove here too often. If he was 8k deep and could check/raise to 1250 that's a very different story than shoving here.

Rarely does he have 55% equity.
 

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