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Analysis please

Analysis please - Thu Apr 21, 2011, 02:20 PM
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
?? - Thu Apr 21, 2011, 02:32 PM
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
u have a limp from utg+1 folded to u on the button - with 3 bb-- and KQs auto jam all day long-- 4 me anyway-- u got unlucky-- gl- monk....
Thu Apr 21, 2011, 02:40 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
you've got about 1.5 times left around the table before you're blinded out (less if the blinds go up again). With only 1 limper in the pot before you.... you absolutely made the right play. You need chips to get ITM and will be blinded out soon, so I'm looking for a hand to shove. With not many hands left before you're done, you can do alot worse than KQ suited.

Actually, you got really unlucky there, because I'd have been ecstatic seeing that my opponent did not have a pair or an A.
Thu Apr 21, 2011, 02:49 PM
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
Yep, what monk said. You got it in good a bit better than a 60/40 favorite. This hand fell into the 40%. Can't win 'em all. You were a 60% favorite to turn 925 into 2625, this is a great spot, and you should be stoked to get your money in heads up here. You win this race most of the time. Don't want to be results-oriented.

The only time I'd consider not jamming KQ suited preflop here is if you had picked up a pattern where that limper only limped as a trap with KK, AA and you were positive he would not switch up his game. (sometimes when a move is successful you fall in love with it--don't). If you were absolutely sure that his range was QQ+ or KK+, then you could pass up this push. Although I don't think this situation occurs often enough to consider, especially with just 3BBs.
Thu Apr 21, 2011, 07:50 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
Usually this short you are looking to act first at the pot, simply because even a single limper means you are not really pressureing the pot enough to deny odds for people to call on random, "live" cards.

The exception to this is when you have a hand with good "value".

KQs is one of those marginal hands that MIGHT be dominated, MIGHT be racing, or might be ahead. It is not nearly as strong as AK or AQ (of course), but then does it HAVE to be for you to make your "stand" on it?

I'd say no...

If the EP limped holds a pocket pair, you are probably a race. You need a race to advance.
If he limped AK/AQ, so be it. You are dominated. At least you have flush value to fall back on.
If he limped to get "cute" with something like JT or 78, you are ahead.

All in all, you NEED chips to keep going, and KQs looks to be the sort of hand that is likely to be the "best" you'll see before posting 1/3rd your stack in the BB. Since the opener just LIMPED in, he didn;t show a whole lot of "strength" here, thus lessening your worries that KQs may be well behind.

This looks to me to be a good "go spot" indeed...

Whatever happens after that is all down to "fate".

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