Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

One Hour Into Big $22 - 99 UTG Open, Two Callers, Then All-In 3Bet

 
Old
Default
One Hour Into Big $22 - 99 UTG Open, Two Callers, Then All-In 3Bet - Mon Apr 25, 2011, 01:55 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Happy Easter, peeps! (Get it? Peeps?)

Here's a nice new situation to look at. This came from one of the new Daily Big tournaments. It was about an hour in, and I was sitting on a comfy thirty-five big blind stack. Just as a quick intro to the other players involved:

The small blind: he had been pretty passive, but had been doing a good job collecting chips. From what I had seen, he was constantly getting value bets paid off, he was ahead in his all-in confrontations, and he generally didn't spew.

The big blind: this guy had been quite tagish for the first hour. He was not getting in a lot of pots, and he did 3bet from the small blind more than once. He had recently been short-stacked, and had raised all-in preflop several times in the last few orbits.

MP2 : he was fairly new to the table and I didn't have any real info. I've included his stats (VPIP/PFR/3bet) below, but they were from only one or two orbits.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 22 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t1900)
CO (t4181)
Button (t5475)
SB (t6642) 24/7/4
BB (t2415) 16/13/15
Panicky (UTG) (t5383)
UTG+1 (t12327)
MP1 (t3570)
MP2 (t4300) 26/11/11

Panicky's M: 23.92

Preflop: Panicky is UTG with 9, 9
Panicky bets t375, 2 folds, MP2 calls t375, 3 folds, SB calls t300, BB raises to t2415 (All-In), ???

I noted when the big blind raised all-in that he had an excellent stack size to do this with, so it was possible that his range was especially wide here. He was never showing down bad hands, so I didn't think his range would be massive, but I did put him on roughly 10% of hands. I figured that I could beat that, but I considered that someone behind me might actually call a reraise, which would be bad for me. I considered that if that were to happen, then the villains might share outs and I might take down a very large pot, but if I were to have shipped over top, it would have been with the hopes that I would be heads-up with the big blind. With three villains in this pot though, I wasn't sure if commiting would be good. What do you guys think?

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 02:13 PM..
 
Old
Default
Mon Apr 25, 2011, 03:40 PM
(#2)
Damen1's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 29
If we are fine with flipping or being dominated for half our stack then we have to shove ott and not really have to worry about mp2 and sb as they appear very weak.
I don't think mp2 flats a lot of strong hands here and sb probably wants to see a cheap flop.

BB has to have some kind of hand to repop an utg raiser but he could be figuring with all the callers there's already a lot of chips in the pot and might be trying to steal it with a weaker holding like Axs, 88-22, but like our read states he's pretty tight and our best scenario is that he has a big ace.

We could gamble for half our stack and still have a 15x to work with but I think we need to fold here and wait for a better spot. I'm most likely wrong though.

Happy Easter and hope this helps!
 
Old
Default
Mon Apr 25, 2011, 04:05 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
It does help, thanks. It does seem marginal to me. I would 4bet this with little extra thought if I had AK or JJ+. 99 seemed like a possibly bad raise, but a potentially leaky fold given all the chips that were in the pot and the potential to play for stacks with a short stack on a wide range.

If my read was correct for the big blind, then I would be flipping most of the time here, which I am fine with, again, since there was so much money in the middle (and I'd be ahead of the flip). I thought that the big blind might ship here with 77 or 88, which is what made me lean toward calling. But my equity went down as soon as I considered the two other players left to act. If there was just a 10% chance that one of them was crushing me and willing to call with something like TT, then maybe I wasn't in a flipping scenario against the villains' combined ranges after all.
 
Old
Default
Mon Apr 25, 2011, 06:34 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
At first I was thinking...it's close but I like a fold. You raised UTG and got called twice and then he shoves. Chances are he has something very strong because squeezing here is unlikely to work. Then again he could have a hand like 98 suited which would have pretty nice equity if you're on AK.

But then I thought about it some more...If you call, you have pretty good equity most of the time. 99 is big enough he can have an underpair. Also, win or lose, you show that you are willing to defend your raises. This can be very helpful as it should make the other players less trigger happy to pull a move like this on you without a monster. (and you can fold more). And even if you lose you'll still have about 20 BBs which is enough to put the hurt on.
 
Old
Default
Mon Apr 25, 2011, 07:48 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Great post, interesting spot.

The BB doesn't have to be shoving a very tight range, as you've noted he was very taggish the first hour but has recently shoved several times, so it appears he's shifted gears commensurate with his stack size. And I agree with you he's got a great resteal stack size to squeeze with here.

The one piece of info you didn't give, which I would like to know, is what is YOUR image or your stats. i.e. what is the BB ranging you on for opening UTG, and is he expecting to have good or poor fold equity against you. If he's expecting your range to be solid, then I'd be less inclinded to get it in here with 9's. If he knows there's a reasonable gap between your opening range and your get it in range, then he's more likely to squeeze a bit lighter and I'm apt to come back over the top of him. If I do play I'm definitely shipping, as we want to give the 2 callers in the middle a good reason to fold stuff like KQs.
 
Old
Default
Mon Apr 25, 2011, 08:37 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I was going to put up my stats, but I couldn't find them for this one tourney. I can tell you that this was the first time I had raised UTG in the entire tourney (about eight orbits up to this point). I remember noting at one point that my VPIP from early position was the lowest of all my VPIP stats (around 10%), and my MP was slightly higher, but still pretty low. I was playing nothing from the cutoff, and more than half of hands from my button, I believe. If anyone was paying attention, then they should have read my UTG opens as pretty narrow.
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com