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910o with a 16bb stack at the money

 
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910o with a 16bb stack at the money - Tue Apr 26, 2011, 09:58 AM
(#1)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
I don't know If I should have called this raise and then shoved on the flop with low cards and draws. I had the right odds to call on the preflop. Or did I make the correct move by folding?


PokerStars Game #61329801246: Tournament #418010252, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2011/04/26 6:42:44 PT [2011/04/26 9:42:44 ET]
Table '418010252 164' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: PRC1982 (16755 in chips)
Seat 2: $$$PRIORS59 (33357 in chips)
Seat 3: sinbergs (31498 in chips)
Seat 4: ar2d22 (8450 in chips)
Seat 5: andrei17731 (11638 in chips)
Seat 6: tankasciuca (39574 in chips)
Seat 7: Birdmanone46 (4570 in chips)
Seat 8: majunami (15352 in chips)
Seat 9: tuzik99 (25613 in chips)
PRC1982: posts the ante 50
$$$PRIORS59: posts the ante 50
sinbergs: posts the ante 50
ar2d22: posts the ante 50
andrei17731: posts the ante 50
tankasciuca: posts the ante 50
Birdmanone46: posts the ante 50
majunami: posts the ante 50
tuzik99: posts the ante 50
tankasciuca: posts small blind 300
Birdmanone46: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andrei17731 [Tc 9d]
majunami: folds
tuzik99: folds
PRC1982: folds
$$$PRIORS59: folds
sinbergs: folds
ar2d22: folds
andrei17731: raises 800 to 1400
tankasciuca: raises 2500 to 3900
Birdmanone46: folds
andrei17731: folds
Uncalled bet (2500) returned to tankasciuca
tankasciuca collected 3850 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 11:03 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
did you have any reads on this player? If you did, that would make a difference.

I would have mucked it immediately, instead of raising initially. Against one random hand, you're in a coin flip situation (51% equity). Against a player that was playing tighter, you're a severe underdog. You still had 2 left to act.

You really did NOT have pot odds preflop. You had 2 people left to act. Against one person, you have only 51% hand equity. Against 2 random hands, you're at approximately 40%. If either of these two were playing tight or TAG, your odds are severely lower than that.
You made a slightly larger than pot size bet with at absolute best case 51% equity, probably 25-30% or lower hand equity (depending on the blind's hands).

I don't like bleeding off chips with marginal at best hands. Save your chips as you can definitely find a better situation to get your chips into.
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 12:10 PM
(#3)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
k, but aren't you supposed to raise in late position with these type of cards suited and non suited connectors, pairs, premium cards and Ax suited. I also don't understand how you got 51% equity at best, if you can give me some numbers as to how you came about this percentage that would be great. I calculated it this way:

Say the player is tag he would diffidently raise with AQ+ and TT+ . You put that in the poker stove calculator against 910s and you get a percentage of 69% to 29% which shows that you're a 2.3 to 1 underdog. I raised to 1400 he reraised to 3900, that's only 2500 more to call into a pot of 6450 which gives you more than 2.3 to 1 odds, so wouldn't it be correct to call?
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 12:11 PM
(#4)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
what do u think?
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 12:49 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
You really did NOT have pot odds preflop. You had 2 people left to act. Against one person, you have only 51% hand equity. Against 2 random hands, you're at approximately 40%. If either of these two were playing tight or TAG, your odds are severely lower than that.
If they're playing tight, they're not calling often, and definitely not out of position. You're assuming that two TAG players in the blinds will call a raise. TAG players don't do a ton of calling, especially not in the blinds, out of position. They raise, reraise, etc. they're tight aggressive, not tight passive. AND, just because they play tight does not mean they get dealt a great hand every time...these are the BEST players to steal from. Skilled LAG players are much more dangerous as they can reraise you with junk, or call and outplay you postflop.

How tight/loose/aggressive are the blinds? If they're both fairly tight, I like your button raise with a speculative hand. Even if you do get called, you have a hand with decent equity against a tight range, and you're in position so you can control the size of the pot. If they are either very loose or aggressive or both, and you don't expect a high success rate for this blind steal, there is nothing wrong with folding this hand.

I like your bet size, just under 2.5 BBs. A steal here doesn't have to work a high percentage of the time for you to add that 1350 to your stack. About 1/3 of the time is enough.

When reraised I think the fold is the correct play. If you call you've put in over 1/3 of your stack and will have to be committed to getting stacks in. 9 10 off isn't going to flop well most of the time, so calling is not a good option.

You'd have to have a very good read that the SB restealing here...but if you have a really strong read (doubtful) that he is restealing, and can fold, you can 4-bet shove it all in. This play is a higher level though. Basically it requires you to say I know that he thinks I'm stealing. Since this is two levels above "I have good cards I raise" you'd really need a strong read. For instance against a pro, depending on your image and his image and your reads and his reads, I could see a 4-bet shove being a strong play. Of course if called, you'd be out of the tournament most of the time, since he'd probably have an absolute monster to call a 4-bet.

Have you been stealing a lot? Has SB been stealing/restealing a lot or just generally aggressive?

Short answer: I like your raise and I like your fold.
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 01:16 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
Say the player is tag he would diffidently raise with AQ+ and TT+ . You put that in the poker stove calculator against 910s and you get a percentage of 69% to 29% which shows that you're a 2.3 to 1 underdog. I raised to 1400 he reraised to 3900, that's only 2500 more to call into a pot of 6450 which gives you more than 2.3 to 1 odds, so wouldn't it be correct to call?

If you call you've put over 1/3 your stack in the pot, so you might as well be committed to playing for stacks. Your stack is way bigger than 1/3 of the future pot, so you're really not getting 2.3 to 1. More like calling 10k to win 14k or 1.4 to 1 odds.
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 04:06 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
With this stack size, just over 19bb's, I fold immediately unless I have a compelling reason to steal raise. OP gave us no reads, so it's an easy fold for me. Steal raising into unknown blinds is going to be a spew too often to be affordable on a 19 bb stack.

As played, super easy fold to his 3b.
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 04:10 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
You put that in the poker stove calculator against 910s and you get a percentage of 69% to 29% which shows that you're a 2.3 to 1 underdog. I raised to 1400 he reraised to 3900, that's only 2500 more to call into a pot of 6450 which gives you more than 2.3 to 1 odds, so wouldn't it be correct to call?
No.

Pokerstove is giving you your equity if all hands go to showdown. Your statement would be accurate if you or the villain were all in, and thus your hands were going to showdown. But you're not, there is money left to bet, so you're not getting 6450-2500 as a price ultimately as there will be additional charges after the flop. Your pokerstove equity includes times you would have won on the turn or river, that in this actual hand you might never see due to addtional betting. Hope this helps.

Dave
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 08:03 PM
(#9)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
k, but aren't you supposed to raise in late position with these type of cards suited and non suited connectors, pairs, premium cards and Ax suited. I also don't understand how you got 51% equity at best, if you can give me some numbers as to how you came about this percentage that would be great. I calculated it this way:

Say the player is tag he would diffidently raise with AQ+ and TT+ . You put that in the poker stove calculator against 910s and you get a percentage of 69% to 29% which shows that you're a 2.3 to 1 underdog. I raised to 1400 he reraised to 3900, that's only 2500 more to call into a pot of 6450 which gives you more than 2.3 to 1 odds, so wouldn't it be correct to call?
Theres nothing wrong with trying to steal the blinds with 9To in late position here. The 3-bet changes everything for you though. The kind of calculations you are doing are for calling all-in raises. The villain didn't go all in though!!! There are still plenty of chips left in both of your stacks. You know you are behind, you are far from committing your stack, and you won't get past the flop unless you hit it very hard, like two pairs+. Time to fold and get out of the hand. Minimize your losses!
 
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Wed Apr 27, 2011, 07:02 AM
(#10)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
Thank you all for your detailed opinion on the hand, really appreciate it.

Last edited by andrei17731; Wed Apr 27, 2011 at 07:06 AM..
 

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