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Net Expected Won BB?

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Net Expected Won BB? - Tue Apr 26, 2011, 08:17 PM
(#1)
steveisnot's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 467
Hello,

I'm having a nasty down swing, so I've been replaying hands, running over my stats and looking at the numbers that PT3 will show me. Most of which, to be honest, I don't understand. The stats that are concerning me at the moment are 'Net expected won BB'

From what I can work out, if I won, but have a negative net expected BB number, then I got 'lucky' (beat the odds). But if I lost with a positive BB number then I got 'unlucky' (the odds beat me).

eg. my AA goes down to ATo because the villain hits a straight, I have a positive 'net expected BB' number. and vise versa.

My question is why does 'unluck' way outweigh the 'lucky'.

Is it because I'm playing 9 other hands?

Or I'm not getting myself in to hands to get 'lucky' with?

I've just check the last three days and found that I was 'unlucky' 51 times and 'lucky' 14 times.

And when I was 'lucky' I won an average of 0.74 BB's. 'unlucky' lost me an average of 3.82 BB's.

That looks ugly to me. So ugly that I must be misunderstanding the numbers.

What the story?
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 08:23 PM
(#2)
steveisnot's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 467
Wrong place I think
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 09:17 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
** Moved **
 
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Tue Apr 26, 2011, 10:00 PM
(#4)
steveisnot's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 467
Thanks Joe. Had to many tabs open and posted in the wrong one. Clown.
 
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Wed Apr 27, 2011, 01:06 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Steve,

How many hands is this over? It is very possible to run this badly over small sample sizes. And "small" is larger than people think. Of course there may well be other factors contributing to the problem, mistakes in the play of good but not great hands (like top pair or overpairs on deep money) might be a good place to start looking.

The "net expected won BB" sounds similar to a stat in hold'em manager called "$ EV Adjusted". In January I ran 21 buy ins below expectation, over 28K hands. There's been other months of course where I've run well too. But until you're talking 50K+ hands minimum, you can expect some fluctuations due to sheer luck (either good or bad). Certainly one should never take that as an excuse to not examine one's own play, but do be aware of it.

Dave
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 05:44 PM
(#6)
steveisnot's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 467
Hello Dave

Thanks for the reply.

I'm doing some more digging to work out what I'm looking at. And work out how to use PT properly.

The hand sample is very small, only around 3000. Sure that makes the 51 worse. Would love to post them all, but not to practical.

I'll be back

Steve
 

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