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Whats your opinion

 
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Whats your opinion - Thu Apr 28, 2011, 01:44 PM
(#1)
defaultPUPPY's Avatar
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I saw this hand on another forum and a lot of people were saying he was probably beat. but with the way the hand played out i think that he was actually ahead a lot more of the time than he was behind. just want to see what you guys think

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4h 4d
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.13, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45) Kc Ts Ks (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.45) 4s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB folds

River: ($0.85) 5c (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BTN raises to $13.48 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: $2.85 pot ($0.14 rake)
Final Board: K T K 4 5
Hero mucked 4 4 and lost (-$1.35 net)
BTN mucked and won $2.71 ($1.36 net)

i do think the fold was valid and i probably wouldn't of called so deep. i just feel its silly to assume that he was behind most of the time to that shove. when i think he probably would have done it with aa ka kq qq potentialy jj ace high flush queen high flushy ace ten on the lowest end of it.

if you guys feel i'm wrong let me know
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 02:11 PM
(#2)
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the only hands you're behind are KK, K 10 or 10's (or 55 if they fish everything to the river, which I'd discount because they should fold on the turn).

If they had any of them, I'd have checked the flop too. Keep people in when I have the nuts. On the turn, I'd have just called with the same combos. If I had a flush, then I'd raise (so someone didn't have a draw at a full house for a small amount).

The push on the river to me sounds like either an A high flush, AK or a bluff. If you had a full house, instead of pushing, I'd value bet whatever I thought my opponent would call.

With the made full house of 4's over K's... unless a previous hand gave me a really good read on them.... I'm calling it because I'm putting them on AQ or AJ of spades or AK.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 02:14 PM
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I don't see how you can fold a full house here. Yes, it's the worst possible full house, but it's still a boat. I don't think there are many people at that level that would be putting you on a weak full house and value-betting here. Yeah, it's possible he had K5 and hit his 5 on the river, but I think you have to call here. He could have so many kings and flushes. Realistically I think the only hands to be worried about are 10 10, K10 and K5. I think he has AK, KQ, KJ, K9, Kx etc. here and flushes enough that you can't fold.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 02:35 PM
(#4)
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This is a typical value line from a weak player. Fail to build a pot then overbet jam to try and look bluffy.

Don't think any rational player is taking this line with hands that have showdown value like JJ/QQ/AA, not sure that AK is taking this line given the presense of the 3 flush and not sure he's got a flush since he checked the flop. Slow play flop, slow play turn, bomb the river is usually going to be a monster. I mean with some specific reads it may be different, but vs. an unknown I think the hero made a good bet/fold.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 02:41 PM
(#5)
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Just read the other replies... JWK you don't want to check a full house on this flop. It's stack dependant of course if the money is shallow checking is ok, but playing deep stacked you want to build a pot. Your goal is to play a big pot if possible. Checking doesn't build the pot, betting does. And you're the preflop raiser who opened from a steal position, you're not going to get much credit for a c-bet anyway. If no one has anything they'll fold, but you're probably not getting much $ off them anyway. If someone has a decent pair, trips, or a draw you want to start extracting value right now and start building the pot. If you flop a boat or quads on this board texture in this position, betting is essential for the button (unless you can reasonably get all in with only 2 betting rounds, which won't be the case on deep money... start building the pot immediately with your monsters, slow playing it in this spot is costing you money.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 02:42 PM
(#6)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I don't see how you can fold a full house here. Yes, it's the worst possible full house, but it's still a boat.

Zeebos theorem.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 05:38 PM
(#7)
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Couldn't he have a hand he thinks is better than it really is?

Also I doubt he knows Zeebo's theorem.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 07:32 PM
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Good point Dave.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 07:59 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Also I doubt he knows Zeebo's theorem.
I was referring to you.
 
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Thu Apr 28, 2011, 09:57 PM
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archide's Avatar
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lol @ zeebos
 
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Fri Apr 29, 2011, 02:19 AM
(#11)
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I wish I could find some spots to actually use Zeebo's theorem for value. I'm able to not bluff someone I'm sure has a full house, but I never seem to be able to beat a full house when I'm against one...
 
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Fri Apr 29, 2011, 04:20 PM
(#12)
archide's Avatar
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Dave... see what you've done??
 
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Fri Apr 29, 2011, 04:54 PM
(#13)
brkn80's Avatar
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Posts: 440
Quote:
Originally Posted by archide View Post
Dave... see what you've done??
when was the last time you laid a boat down?
 
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Sat Apr 30, 2011, 01:18 AM
(#14)
archide's Avatar
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When you shoved on me
 
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Sat Apr 30, 2011, 02:02 AM
(#15)
JDean's Avatar
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Would be nice to know the effective stack sizes here...

But I tend to agree with Dave.

If you elect to "only" bet a bit under half pot when you spike your bingo 4 on the turn, the pot is really pretty small. If you hold even HALF the stack of the river shover, the pot just isn't worth running into a slow played "monster".

'course if you hold say, $3 or $4 left (after your $1 river lead), then you should probably call this, simply because he may not "believe" the 3rd spade or the river 5 "improved" you, and he thinks your slight pot over-bet was weakness.

I don't like the chance of losing $7 or $8 here though, not one bit. This does smack of a flop "monster" hoping someone "caught up" to 2nd best...
 
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Sat Apr 30, 2011, 11:52 AM
(#16)
archide's Avatar
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Whoa... umm Zeebo's theorem is a level.

And you get it in here 100% of the time.

lol .. what the hell??? Is this "Mass level Archide" day or something?
 
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Sat Apr 30, 2011, 12:01 PM
(#17)
archide's Avatar
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Just in case this is not a level, (which I am confused why Dave hasn't explained it was yet.)


Board: Kc Ks Ts 4s 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.074% 74.07% 00.00% 20 0.00 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 25.926% 25.93% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 55, AKs, AKo }

You need to hurt your index finger and get a splint on it from calling this river so fast.

And if you remove AKs (which doesn't make sense at this level to remove them, then you have to remove 55 because no way in hell someone is floating with 55 and not AK)

Board: Kc Ks Ts 4s 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 4 0.00 { QQ+, TT }


Now add the face that 5% of the time at minimum you have some maniac shoving with a busted flush or nut flush here.

This is ridiculously easy to snap call.
 
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Sat Apr 30, 2011, 12:08 PM
(#18)
archide's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 229
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Also this:

"For those of you who don't know, the Zeebo Theorem (ala CaptZeebo from HSNL) is that no one ever folds a full house when a board has trips showing."


Also:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...0&fpart=1&vc=1



Man, Dave you missed the mark here buddy. But so did I. I always thought Zeebo's Theorem was a level but since you quoted it I had to look it up. The Theorem is out there on some sites about no one folding full houses. The real theorem is that no one folds full houses with trips on the board.

Now it makes sense as a legitimate theorem to me.

So if I have TT on a 44457 board I can shove this flop for value because I will get calls from more hands that I beat - such as 22,33,5x,7x,66,88,99
and I will lose to only a few: 4x,55,77,jj,qq,kk,aa

So when I get it all in on this flop I'm a slight favorite.

Last edited by archide; Sat Apr 30, 2011 at 12:11 PM..
 

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