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1500 FPP Satellite, Bubble Phase: ATo in SB, All-In Steal Attempt

 
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1500 FPP Satellite, Bubble Phase: ATo in SB, All-In Steal Attempt - Fri Apr 29, 2011, 08:32 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So, earlier today I decided to try a 1,500 FPP satellite to a live Italian event qualifier. I initially thought that 20% of the field paid out (15,000 FPP's / 1,500 FPP's = 5, right?), but only 10% actually got seats. Given how razor-sharp my mental processes were, I'm a bit surprised that I made it to the final table, let alone the round two bubble. By choice, I decided to run without my HUD in this game.

Anyway, 5th through 8th place got two buy-ins back, and the top 4 moved on to the qualifying final. At the start of this hand, I was sitting in 3rd place out of 5 remaining players. My goal was to keep my stack in at least 3rd place, so that there would always be two people below me who could blind out, which would allow me to tighten up and take a post-and-fold approach if I decided to do so. In order to maintain this stack, however, I needed to steal some pots.

The guy sitting to my right (the button) had the big stack, so I wasn't trying to tangle with him much. But since 6th place busted, he had been open-limping or open-minraising just about every hand. He was obviously trying to put pressure on the short stacks, and he was sending the message that he had the power to put anyone in jeopardy at any time. Initially, I believed that he would be calling all-in's pretty wide, but he surprised me by folding most of the time when someone came overtop of him. I had done so once or twice in recent hands.

Over eighty hands at this table, I had no reads on the guy sitting on my left. I should have been paying more attention to the guy, but the fact that he wasn't catching my attention means that he was probably playing very tight (my HUD confirms that he was running 13/3, and he was not 3betting).

If I had a table image, it was probably pretty tagish. I wasn't playing a lot hands at this final table, but if I did play a hand, it was by means of a preflop all-in shove. I had been open shoving a decent amount from every part of the table, so it's possible that some people viewed some of my raises as steal attempts. But I wasn't trying to exploit anyone or button-steal, and I don't remember ever bluffing at the final table of this particular tournament.

The action speaks for itself. Everyone folded to the monster stack, the monster stack limped his button, and I shipped my 12 big blinds. I'm just wondering if this was a spewy shove. I think that it was marginal, because I had a feeling that the button was intentionally limping or minraising everything to cover up his monsters, and the big blind also had the potential to cripple me if he had a hand. On the bubble, in 3rd place where 4 players would win seats, and with a decent 12BB stack, should I have just completed my blind or folded here? I was getting involved with all the wrong stacks here. Was this bubble spot too marginal, or was it okay? Thanks for the input, guys.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 0 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 75 Ante (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t7630)
Button (t27273)
Panicky (SB) (t9726)
BB (t7817)
UTG (t4554)

Panicky's M: 6.18

Preflop: Panicky is SB with A, 10
2 folds, Button calls t800, Panicky bets t9651 (All-In)

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Fri Apr 29, 2011 at 08:41 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 29, 2011, 10:21 PM
(#2)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
Gordon...first, I can see why it ticked you off to get logged off while typing this up.
2nd..from what I see..you're not in 3rd..you're in 2nd. And if that's the case, yeah..maybe a little loose with the shove. The other short stacks all have less than 10 BB's. You have over 6 M and have chose to shove on the one player who can knock you out. Plus as you say..if he's limping or min raising every time, it's hard to put him on a hand.
Personally in these spots, with the bubble close and you're in 2nd, I would definitely be waiting until I had to make a play, or had a monster, and let the short stacks battle it out.
 
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Fri Apr 29, 2011, 10:44 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Yeah, this situation could probably have done with a shorter OP. And you're right, I was in 2nd. I hate editing errors.
I think everything else is accurate, though.
 
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Sat Apr 30, 2011, 01:05 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Next Hand UTG is hitting the blinds; those will cost him 25% of his stack if he folds both.

You are in still in 2nd place, and have paid your blinds.

If, on the next couple hands, ANYONE doubles thru the big stack, you are still in 3rd place, with the bottom 2 at much greater "risk" of busting that you.

If, on the next couple hands, anyone else goes all-in and loses, you have your seat.

You note the big stack is folding often to shoves, but that he MAY be looking to 'train" the table into making a shove mistake when he is on a big hand.

Your hand is pretty weak if called.

Add it up...

If the limper FOLDS, you gain very little.
If the limper CALLS, you are likely looking at a decent sized pp, perhaps even JJ+, or a dominating A; range him...

Let's call it 88+, AJ/AQ/AK for him to call (which is probably pretty "wide" considering he does not want to double YOU up and equalize your 2 stacks, but still)...

29.4% equity for you if he calls on that tight a range.


Remember...

It is a FLAT pay structure event, so you gain ZERO benefit by lasting to 4th with double the amount of chips you have currently. Your M of 6.18 is not as "critical" as it is in a standard pay structure MTT, since the 3 stacks BELOW you must ALL double at least once to place you on the lowest stack. What matters here is:

Who "survives" the NEXT all-in

By making it YOU who goes all-in next, you potentially put yourself into a position to either bust completely, or lose the advantage you currently have by tossing chips to the shortest stack (in the BB). It is highly unlikely the big stack calls you on LESS than ATo, and the BB "sees" that small stack UTG so he isn't calling you way lite either. This means the benefit from shoving is pretty thin since you'll either steal the limp and BB, or be at risk.

All in all, you did NOT "need" to do this, and probably shouldn;t have done it.

Last edited by JDean; Sat Apr 30, 2011 at 01:10 AM..
 

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