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Approaching bubble on 28 bb effective

 
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Approaching bubble on 28 bb effective - Sun May 01, 2011, 04:51 PM
(#1)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
$2.20 mtt, 55 left paying 45 spots. Villain in this hand is playing 31.7/6.7 so he's loose passive pre, with a post flop aggression factor of 1.25.

Thoughts on my line?

Stage #666060645 Tourney ID 6148411 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 800 - 2011-05-01 16:25:17 (ET)
Table: 25 (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 2 - SCARN111 (21,331 in chips)
Seat 3 - SHIZZITT69 (5,071 in chips)
Seat 4 - PREDATORBG (10,721 in chips)
Seat 5 - CNORT (35,293 in chips)
Seat 6 - PLEIADIAN1 (22,960 in chips)
Seat 7 - SANNE87 (15,865 in chips)
Seat 8 - TheLangolier (21,956 in chips)
Seat 9 - OKIEINSC (6,162 in chips)
SCARN111 - Ante 100
SHIZZITT69 - Ante 100
PREDATORBG - Ante 100
CNORT - Ante 100
PLEIADIAN1 - Ante 100
SANNE87 - Ante 100
TheLangolier - Ante 100
OKIEINSC - Ante 100
CNORT - Posts small blind 400
PLEIADIAN1 - Posts big blind 800
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TheLangolier [Qh Kh]
SANNE87 - Folds
TheLangolier - Raises 1,888 to 1,888
OKIEINSC - Folds
SCARN111 - Folds
SHIZZITT69 - Folds
PREDATORBG - Folds
CNORT - Folds
PLEIADIAN1 - Calls 1,088
*** FLOP *** [Ks 9h 7s]
PLEIADIAN1 - Bets 2,400
TheLangolier - Calls 2,400
*** TURN *** [Ks 9h 7s] [3h]
PLEIADIAN1 - Checks
TheLangolier - Checks
*** RIVER *** [Ks 9h 7s 3h] [6h]
PLEIADIAN1 - Checks
TheLangolier - Bets 6,400
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 05:03 PM
(#2)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,407
BronzeStar
Don't like the check on the turn. However, to me you are rep'n AK here. Pretty sure you have him. Worse case, you chop it. Not sure he can call with QQ or JJ here on the river.

JT
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 05:34 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JT_Sooooted View Post
Pretty sure you have him. Worse case, you chop it. Not sure he can call with QQ or JJ here on the river.

JT
Thanks for the thoughts, looking forward to some discussion on this hand... I'll share my thoughts on it later but wanted to point out, we're not chopping... I turned a flush draw and rivered the back door K high flush.
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 05:41 PM
(#4)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Don't tell me he had A7 of hearts

That's the only hand that would beat you
A rag, he calls since he's playing lots of hands
Flop a 7, therefore aggressive bet to see what you will do
Turn you checked?? why? now would be a good time to scare him off
River, I would say that was a good call

The only cards I would put him on would be QQ, JJ TT


Are you still running, was looking for you on the other site, but of course you don't go under Thelangolier................lol, noticed there was only 17 players left

Last edited by Sandtrap777; Sun May 01, 2011 at 07:15 PM..
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 06:46 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,793
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I like the raise preflop and with hitting top pair, you need to call the flop bet. With your info on them, they very easily could have ace/rag of spades, with outside chance at AK, KQ, 2 pair or a set. Also, with you calling their flop bet, they should be putting you on a K or spades.

Them checking the turn, I'd rule out the set from their range. If they had a set, they'd have bet due to wanting to make someone pay for a flush draw. That card actually is a really good thing for you, as not only do you have top pair, but gives you the flush draw. I don't mind the check there at all, because it makes it look like you're on a spade draw, when you really have hearts and top pair. You could bet it since have top pair, but especially if it's out of character for you to not always bet top pair with a draw, it's good to change things up every so often (helps to throw off a player's read on you). Consistancy is good, but have to change things up sometimes.

Them checking the river would make me put them on the missed spade draw or an outside chance that they would check-raise you with 2 pair (7 9 suited would be fine in my book since I'm holding the 2nd nut flush). Like the bet here, as you need to value bet it with the flush.

As trap stated, only hand I'd be worried about at all would be A7 hearts and that's a horrible beat if they had it.
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 06:58 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
Sandtrap tried to cheat

I like preflop,flop and turn but would play river differently.
Since he stabbed the flop and has given up I would be more inclined to put a smaller bet in that he might call or overbet it depending on reads.A standard 60-70% bet usual just gets a fold in that spot.
I think a flop bet and turn check is more likely to be a semi-bluff than a flop check and turn bet.
So looking at it that way he isnt showing up with the nuts and isnt going to check/raise you on the river.Just so rare for some one to play the nuts that way.

As for his range I really want to put him on TT to QQ,just seems like a hand like that would stab once and give up if called.He is less likely to be on a draw here if he is its not AK and he wont have a straight.
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 07:05 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Are you still running, was looking for you on the other site, but of course you don't go under Thelangolier................lol, noticed there was only 17 players left
LOL, correct, I edited the name to something more familiar to this site.

Yes I was still running. I just went out in 4th place.
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 07:16 PM
(#8)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Congrats on your 4th place...

So I guess he didn't have A7 of hearts......
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 07:21 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Congrats on your 4th place...

So I guess he didn't have A7 of hearts......

Thanks, and correct, he did not have the nuts, this isn't a bad beat post.

Just thought this would be an interesting hand to discuss.
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 09:18 PM
(#10)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I like your line. You're against the the one stack that can KO you. Keeping the pot small until either your backdoor draw comes in or the spade draw is busted (since he's not folding a spade draw). There are so many things you can do on the river, and as long as you would make a similar bet with a weaker hand here, a very value-y value bet on the river is just fine. There are a few hands that can call I think...JT hearts, T8 hearts, some annoyed 2 pair hands like 97 and K9, even AA. Can you get called by AK?

If it weren't for him having such a similar stack size, I think you could get max value from shoving the river, but if he loses an all-in he's effectively out. A bet of around 5-6k is nice here as he can call with a lot of worse hands.

Another option is to bet the turn when checked to, to set up your floats. But against a similar sized stack I might not want to try anything dangerous like that.
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 09:21 PM
(#11)
JT_Sooooted's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,407
BronzeStar
Never actually looked at the river card here. Sorry to have missed it.

Congrats on the finish.

JT
 
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Sun May 01, 2011, 09:50 PM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I don't mind the check there at all, because it makes it look like you're on a spade draw, when you really have hearts and top pair. You could bet it since have top pair, but especially if it's out of character for you to not always bet top pair with a draw, it's good to change things up every so often (helps to throw off a player's read on you). Consistancy is good, but have to change things up sometimes.
I've fallen for that trap before (of course my card reading's still super-rough LOL).

Somebody who raises pre, who calls, then checks, then raises on the turn - it kind of lets people on the loose side see what i want to see (I mean 'they') instead of what might really be there. Like maybe Langolier's line could also be consistent with JJ, QQ, AK and it's a semi-bluff (like a real hand, that's being made to represent the flush rather than the actual flush)? Except is it just me, or do people seem to bluff far less often than I seem to wish they were

Did they call the river?
 
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Mon May 02, 2011, 06:28 AM
(#13)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I like your line. You're against the the one stack that can KO you. Keeping the pot small until either your backdoor draw comes in or the spade draw is busted (since he's not folding a spade draw).
I'm not sure I agree with this. I understand the desire to be cautious with a big stack/big stack bubble situation, but if he's not folding spades, that's an argument to bet, not to check.

Looking at the guy's stats, the fact that his aggression factor is above 1 just means that he's more likely to bet than call. That's actually pretty relevant, since that means that he's not just betting the nuts. That makes me think that more often than not, the villain will have hit the flop in some way, but not necessarily uber strong. Just to stay on the cautious side, only calling the flop makes sense to me.

Personally, I would not check the turn, because you do have top pair that will usually be good, imo. Letting him see a free river does three things. First, it cuts your value when he's on a draw that doesn't get there; second, it lets him possibly draw out for free; and third, It makes it very easy for him to bluff you on the river, since I imagine you're not calling a bet if any ace or spade comes. Nines and sevens could also be bad for you, as well as any other card that could give him a striaght, two pair, or a set.

With the stack sizes as they are, I think I can understand the turn check, though. If I'm reading this right, you didn't want to have half your stack in on the turn, and then have to call a value shove from Pleiadian1 with a one pair hand if he decided that whatever he had was good. I'm sure you also would have had a hard time value betting most rivers here, with only top/second. Essentially, what I see you doing here is playing a small pot until your hand becomes stronger than one pair. I think that's pretty smart, but I have a hard time thinking that you're getting the flush paid off very often. I think that on the river, you'll be paying off the villain's value bets more often that he'll be paying off yours. But most of the time, after checking the turn, I think you'll just win a small pot with one pair.

I think I like your line better than I like the line I would have taken, but I think that a lot of its profitability comes from what rivers you'd be willing to check, bet, and fold to a value bet on. And I think that by taking your line, you're setting yourself up for difficult decisions on the river. Just not this time, since you rivered a very reliable second nut flush.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon May 02, 2011 at 04:45 PM.. Reason: omg i speled somthing wrpng
 
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Mon May 02, 2011, 07:42 AM
(#14)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I like your line. You're against the the one stack that can KO you. Keeping the pot small until either your backdoor draw comes in or the spade draw is busted (since he's not folding a spade draw).
I'm not sure I agree with this. I understand the desire to be cautious with a big stack/big stack bubble situation, but if he's not folding spades, that's an argument to bet, not to check.

With the stack sizes as they are, I think I can understand the turn check, though. If I'm reading this right, you didn't want to have half your stack in on the turn, and then have to call a value shove from Pleiadian1 with a one pair hand if he decided that whatever he had was good.

I think I like your line better than I like the line I would have taken, but ...
First, is pot control and stack management sort of the same thing? Or kind of related concepts? Like the pot control was because to raise the 6400 on the turn would be an all-in by the river for at least somebody if not both, sort of a deal?

Second, I too am somewhat torn as to whether to raise or make stack management the priority. That board is actually kind of a horror show to be up against somebody so loose because there's all sorts of flush draws, straight draws, an over, 2pr and trip possibilities they could be holding, there might be a kicker issue. By the turn:

AK, AA - are actually the heavy favorite, even with the flush draw the KhQh picked up
KK, 99, 77 - I guess we've ruled out?

On the other hand, possibilities where KhQh is ahead, but 'villian' could still have a lot of outs:

As9s - has like 14 outs - flush draw, two pair and trip possibilities
AsQs, AsJs - 12 outs - flush draw, over
QsJs,QsTs - 12 outs - flush draw, straight draw

KQ - ties if the river doesn't heart

KJ, QQ to TT - has an out to win (longshot)

I guess the only hands that might fold would be the QQ to TT, and even then who knows because maybe they're thinking that they're the one up against the spade draw? Which means chances are this pot is getting decided on the river. So with pot control, with KhQh I guess there's a chance to win or lose 4500+ if the flush hits (assuming villain's on a flush draw as well)? And with betting the turn, there's a chance to win or lose 11000+ if the flush hits? But there's equal chance the flush misses completely and what if this pot comes down to K+kicker? What if they feel pot-committed and they shove - do we call?

I guess this hand is another one of those tough ones ... mostly I've been betting all streets, but it doesn't always turn out well. I'm left asking, "what were the chances" at least 25%-30% of the time The roller coaster can get a bit tiring

I'll have to add pot control and stack management to my 'playbook' ... try it out for size ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon May 02, 2011 at 07:49 AM..
 
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Mon May 02, 2011, 08:22 AM
(#15)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
First, is pot control and stack management sort of the same thing?
Pot control is just playing in a way that keeps the pot as small as possible. The idea behind it is, if you're willing to risk 100% of your stack on any hand where you think you're ahead, then one little misread or suckout could reduce your stack to nothing. So, in this case, where KQ was probably good, and where the villain might have been on a draw that might have had a decent shot at completing, the likelihood of KQ losing was actually pretty big. Not necessarily over 50%, but if checking the turn was for pot control, then it was just to make sure that the pot didn't get big, and then have the villain win it anyway because they made a river flush or two pair, or because they actually were ahead all along.

When two big stacks clash, there is always a lot at risk for both players. Since both are already set up to storm the final table, but both could lose their entire stack right now, big stacks should tend to play cautiously against each other so that after the hand, they can both resume mistreating the shorter peasant stacks.

Stack protection is making sure you don't lose chips, and pot control is a tool used to protect one's stack. Stack management means getting chips in your stack and not losing them. So, stack management isn't really a playbook strategy, it's more like the entire point of the game.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon May 02, 2011 at 08:25 AM..
 
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Mon May 02, 2011, 06:56 PM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Another good discussion.

Here's what I was thinking. Normally a donk bet into the preflop raiser is going to signify a moderate made hand or a draw, so I'd feel like I'm ahead frequently on this flop. But this particular villain is pretty passive, both pre and post (an AF of 1.25 is actually fairly passive, aggressive players have an AF north of 2). So I wasn't entirely sure what this bet meant from this guy. I therefore opted to call and use my position to evaluate the turn card and subsequent action. Turn is a blank for his range, and he checks to me. I thought my check back would be controvertial. Here's what I was factoring into that decision: I think if I'm ahead, which I do feel like I am much of the time, I'm only getting 2 streets of value from him. If he's got a moderate made hand like Kx he probably calls a turn bet but not sure he gives me a 3rd street on the river. Any other moderate made hand he might not even call a turn bet. If he's on a draw, he's probably calling the turn, BUT when I check it back he may well bluff the river with busted draws, so I still get 2 streets from draws at least some of the time when they bust. Of course if he makes his draw, he'll bet the river but it's not really a difficult decision, my line induces bluffs so my plan is to call any reasonable river bet. I'm taking a hand with good showdown value and getting it to showdown without it costing me my entire stack, in a way that maximizes value vs. his range (at least that's the design). I'm also avoiding going broke the times he has flopped really strong or hits a draw on me.

Finally, having turned a draw to a super strong hand, I really didn't want to bet and get check-raised, because then I would have to throw up. For instance if he flopped a set of 7's, decides to lead into me hoping I'll raise, then goes for a check-raise on the turn when I just call the flop, I'm really going to hate life. There is 9776 in the pot on the turn, let's say I bet 6K, and he jams. The pot will contain 33344 and I'll have 11568 left to call off, so I need roughly 26% equity to make calling mathematically correct. Versus a set I only have 18%. So now I've put almost half my stack in the middle and am faced with a decision to either fold it off with a big draw or put the rest in as a likely significant dog with 1 card to come. A real throw up spot.

Given that the stack sizes here were fairly awkward I opted to take the easy route, ensure I at least get out of this hand with a good resteal stack intact when I'm beat while trying to extract good value from worse at the same time. If we were much deeper I think this line is more clear, and if we were much shorter we're simply committing and getting it in without hesitation, but the somewhat awkward stack made this a bit more difficult to play.

Thanks for the thoughts and the great discussion.

*** RIVER *** [Ks 9h 7s 3h] [6h]
PLEIADIAN1 - Checks
TheLangolier - Bets 6,400
PLEIADIAN1 - Calls 6,400
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TheLangolier - Shows [Qh Kh] (Flush, king high)
PLEIADIAN1 - Mucks
TheLangolier Collects 22,576 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(22,576)
Board [Ks 9h 7s 3h 6h]
Seat 2: SCARN111 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: SHIZZITT69 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: PREDATORBG (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: CNORT (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: PLEIADIAN1 (big blind) HI: [Mucked] [9d Ac]
Seat 7: SANNE87 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 8: TheLangolier won Total (22,576) HI: (22,576) with Flush, king high [Qh Kh - P,P,B,B,B]
Seat 9: OKIEINSC Folded on the POCKET CARDS
 
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Mon May 02, 2011, 08:51 PM
(#17)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I really found your thoughts on this hand interesting, Dave. I think that this is a spot where a lot of amateurs just don't know what to do, and a lot of decent players still lose a lot of chips because they miss some of the subtleties of the situation. It's really a very good hand to learn from for playing with awkward stacks and SPR's, I think.

This stuck out at me, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
I'm only getting 2 streets of value from him. If he's got a moderate made hand like Kx he probably calls a turn bet but not sure he gives me a 3rd street on the river. Any other moderate made hand he might not even call a turn bet. If he's on a draw, he's probably calling the turn, BUT when I check it back he may well bluff the river with busted draws, so I still get 2 streets from draws at least some of the time when they bust.
Relying on a passive player to voluntarily put money into the pot after they've missed seems like a stretch to me.
 
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Tue May 03, 2011, 12:33 AM
(#18)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Relying on a passive player to voluntarily put money into the pot after they've missed seems like a stretch to me.
I'm not relying on it though as the sole premise behind the line. And I did say "some of the time". I agree he will not always bluff the river with busted draws.

I'm not overly concerned about him being on a draw tbh, passive players usually check/call those not donk them. I think his range is going to be more weighted to some kind of made hand.
 

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