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AT on the bubble with 14bb

 
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AT on the bubble with 14bb - Tue May 03, 2011, 06:39 AM
(#1)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
I think this was a wrong play, but I want to make sure.



PokerStars Game #61620170125: Tournament #391009317, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2011/05/03 3:31:53 PT [2011/05/03 6:31:53 ET]
Table '391009317 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: quailo (1635 in chips)
Seat 3: Jorel XIII (6335 in chips)
Seat 4: sch@@pherder (15590 in chips)
Seat 5: sport tolik (3200 in chips)
Seat 7: andrei17731 (8445 in chips)
Seat 9: Lok-vvo (5295 in chips)
quailo: posts the ante 50
Jorel XIII: posts the ante 50
sch@@pherder: posts the ante 50
sport tolik: posts the ante 50
andrei17731: posts the ante 50
Lok-vvo: posts the ante 50
sport tolik: posts small blind 300
andrei17731: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to andrei17731 [Ac Td]
Lok-vvo: folds
quailo: folds
Jorel XIII: folds
sch@@pherder: folds
sport tolik: raises 2550 to 3150 and is all-in
andrei17731: calls 2550
*** FLOP *** [4s Js 6s]
*** TURN *** [4s Js 6s] [4d]
*** RIVER *** [4s Js 6s 4d] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
 
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Tue May 03, 2011, 11:12 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Review #'s 4 & 5:

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...nalysis-How-To


A player with a 5bb stack should be shoving a wide enough range blind v blind that AT will play just fine against it, and you're getting a good price to boot. 1.6-1 on a call, you need roughly 39% equity and vs. a standard shoving range (no reads on villain) AT should easly have that eclipsed. Against a range of 30% you're actually a 56-44 favorite. To get your equity down below 39% I show he has to be shoving just under 10% of starting hands. So I guess against a nit this is probably a fold, vs. anyone else it's a snap call imo.
 
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Tue May 03, 2011, 01:07 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I totally agree with Dave on this one. If super tight nit, then I'll fold it... anyone else, immediate call.
 
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Tue May 03, 2011, 02:19 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I wasn't sure so I decided to ICM it...

Assuming it's the 27 man with payouts 100 / 72 / 48 / 28 / 22

Using ICM...

(not factoring in the antes or the BB you've paid)
Before the hand you have $55.6 in tournament equity
If you win you have $65.9
If you lose you have $ 42.9

Losing hurts about 1.2 times as much as winning helps. You're getting roughly 1.6 to 1 odds so you're getting roughly 1.6/1.2 = 1.3 to 1 tournament odds. So you need about 43% equity. You can call with your ATo as long as you think he's pushing top 15% or more.

Surely he's shoving a bit wider than that, so it's a close call. You should have the necessary ~43% against his range. After all he's short-stacked and it's blind vs. blind.

Last edited by oriholic; Tue May 03, 2011 at 02:29 PM..
 

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