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25NL 6-Max: Nut Flush on Paired Board, Clear Fold or Crying Call?

 
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25NL 6-Max: Nut Flush on Paired Board, Clear Fold or Crying Call? - Thu May 05, 2011, 04:51 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So, here's a new fun hand from the Panicky bundle. Details about the players involved:
MP: No data. Been at the table for 8 prior hands, but hasn't played one.
SB: Fish. Running 71/20, seems to be targeting me with preflop minraises (?), up over $30 since I sat.
Me: Stuck $2, intentionally opening and calling wide in order to play pots with SB.

Preflop, I knew going in that MP would have a good hand. Normally a fold spot for me, but I called thinking that my expectation would go up if I could get SB in the pot.

On the flop, I got bet into and figured that I was getting terrible odds to draw to my flush, but again, I thought I might have really good implied odds if SB stayed in the hand.

On the turn, I made the nuts and checked it to disguise, thinking I'd be good on almost 100% of rivers.

On the river, nightmare! Board paired, and action went bet, raise. Arguement for folding is obviously the fact that MP should never be raising without a boat. Argument for calling is that I may have induced a raise on the river by disguising my hand, so weaker flushes and perhaps a handful of even worse hands could make this raise, thinking it's for value. It could also be a weird bluff.

Thoughts? Thanks all!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($25)
Panicky (Button) ($53.65)
SB ($46.77)
BB ($25)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Panicky is Button with 3, A
1 fold, MP bets $1, Panicky calls $1, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25) 8, 2, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $1.96, Panicky calls $1.96, SB calls $1.96

Turn: ($9.13) K (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Panicky checks

River: ($9.13) 2 (3 players)
SB bets $3.50, MP raises to $22.04 (All-In),

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Thu May 05, 2011 at 04:54 AM..
 
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Thu May 05, 2011, 05:16 AM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
MP certainly would seem to have a high pair from his preflop bet and his two thirds of the pot flop bet.

If he had Ks though I could not see him checking the turn even if he fears the flush draw, he should be betting his set but the only way you would get an idea of whether he has the set or not is by betting the turn with your nut flush. If he calls he probably has the King set but at least then you know.

His huge bet on the river is representing the house but he could just as easily have Aces, Queens or Jacks. You got yourself into this situation (I can spell it now LOL) by not betting the turn and probably ended up making a crying call.

I hope he did not have the Kings

TC
 
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Thu May 05, 2011, 06:28 AM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
I like this hand that you posted Panicky - with two of the players that I personally have the hardest time playing against ... the person who never plays so you can't be sure what they're doing, and the maniac who plays everything so you can't be sure what they're doing. And then the board's action-packed to boot.

Even though this river was a nightmare, you find that over time it still maximizes value to sort of hide your hand and not play until the river (even with the risk of getting drawn out), given the longshot odds of being drawn out? I've been thinking of trying some of that myself - I tried it tonight and it ended in a colossal fail on the river, but it was just my first try Not sure if that was just a bad experience or something ...

PS It kind of feels to me like they had 88? But you never know ... could have been the other 22's!

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu May 05, 2011 at 06:40 AM..
 
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Thu May 05, 2011, 07:20 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
There really is a danger in ANY sort of "fancy" play when you are lacking in info. Checking the nut turn to exploit a known weak player when he isn't your SOLE opponent in the hand could be considered a "fancy" play.

I would be much more prone to do this if I had effective info on BOTH opponents, and if not I think I rely on the thought of betting for value immediately to extract from the guy I do know. If the other guy comes along, GREAT. At least I get some info on the unknown quantity by betting that turn...

The fact is, the river lead by the fish puts this pot at about $12. The shove by the MP guy could easily be a boat hoping to get paid by flushes, but is more likely (in my opinion) to be a pp that started as a board over-pair, got scared on the turn, then sees a weak player leading the river as a good spot to jam.

All you REALLY need is an expectation that he holds a boat+ only around 40% of the time to be "right" in making this call, but with only 8 hands of info, you cannot REALLY say you have that info, right?

To get the needed info, I think you'd have been better served by turn betting and making a "crying call" on a pairing river "easier" on you, even if it means you may NOT extract max value from a bluff push.
 
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Thu May 05, 2011, 10:01 AM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
There really is a danger in ANY sort of "fancy" play when you are lacking in info. Checking the nut turn to exploit a known weak player when he isn't your SOLE opponent in the hand could be considered a "fancy" play.

I would be much more prone to do this if I had effective info on BOTH opponents, and if not I think I rely on the thought of betting for value immediately to extract from the guy I do know. If the other guy comes along, GREAT. At least I get some info on the unknown quantity by betting that turn...

The fact is, the river lead by the fish puts this pot at about $12. The shove by the MP guy could easily be a boat hoping to get paid by flushes, but is more likely (in my opinion) to be a pp that started as a board over-pair, got scared on the turn, then sees a weak player leading the river as a good spot to jam.

All you REALLY need is an expectation that he holds a boat+ only around 40% of the time to be "right" in making this call, but with only 8 hands of info, you cannot REALLY say you have that info, right?

To get the needed info, I think you'd have been better served by turn betting and making a "crying call" on a pairing river "easier" on you, even if it means you may NOT extract max value from a bluff push.
That's good advice JD - that was the thing with my attempt at a slowplay - they'd been there about 20 hands and this was the first one they played that somebody called. I flopped top pr, but then I wondered if they had a better (pocket) pr. Then the K hit on the river and then I realized that they had exactly what I thought they had all along (AK). Ugh ... just an awkward experience all around ...

PS Panicky - were you slow-playing or check-raising in previous hands that MP would have noticed?
 
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Thu May 05, 2011, 01:42 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
PS Panicky - were you slow-playing or check-raising in previous hands that MP would have noticed?
N/A... MP's only been at the table for 8 hands.

I'm not a fan of the check back on the turn, we want to continue building the pot and in particular with a fish involved we want to open the betting with the nuts and give the fish the opportunity to put more money in the middle right now.

I tend to agree with the other posters, in that:

-it's difficult to see MP checking a set on the turn, since sets would normally be barreling again.
-Our hand is under-repped
-MP is jamming over a big fish, who might lead with hands like KJ and they pay off the shove with them. KQ, AK or AA are reasonable value hands for him in this unique situation, particularly if you will fold hands as strong as the nut flush. And it's a reasonable bluff spot as the weak player may lead anything after the turn gets checked through.
-He's unknown with only 8 hands played, but he's been around long enough to identify the fish who's been involved in probably 6 of those 8 hands. He may be opening pre to iso on the fishes blind with hands that are strong on the river but 2nd best to you, stuff like As2s or QdJd.

All this considered, I think it's a call. It's not a feel good call, but it's a call imo.
 
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Thu May 05, 2011, 09:50 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Thanks for the discussion, guys. I actually didn't give MP credit for trying to exploit a fish here at all. Given his stats, I assumed he was multitabling and not watching any table all that closely. I figured he was playing his hand, and not the players. Given that at the very least, I looked like I was on a draw, I thought that the villain would probably never take this line without the boat. I also figured that if he saw SB as a fish, he probably wouldn't try to bluff. I was curious to hear how you guys would balance the information and come to a conclusion. I expected to hear a lot more clear fold responses, but the thread ended up being a lot more interesting to read.

 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 12:37 AM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I expected to hear a lot more clear fold responses, but the thread ended up being a lot more interesting to read.
Yeah, I'll second that. I'm so grateful for PSO for having the league up, and for all the help I get in Hand Analysis because it's given me the bankroll and the chance to go out and try all this stuff we talk about, and practice it and stuff.

What's been fun to explore too is how different games can attract different types of people and different types of play and all that (llike tournament versus cash game, STT versus MTT, freeroll, etc). The play and the players can be so different!

I based my guess on a hand I had just seen played at PSO, and the fact that MP didn't seem at all concerned Panicky might have been the one to have the boat. But after reading everybody's responses, now that I think about it yeah I've seen people go to showdown at the cash tables having hands and playing them just like Langolier described. I'm still oftentimes getting surprised a lot by what I think people have and what they wind up having. So that was great to hear everybody's insights.

PS Hey Panicky, here's that hand I was talking about from PSO - similar board, similar betting. But after hearing everybody's reasoning, I doubt it's what happened in your case. I guess PSO's very different in that we all value stack preservation so much more than anything else. And also, we all know each other's play since it's such a small world, so maybe we all tend to play a lot more cautious against players we know are good and therefore have tremendous respect for and stuff. But maybe it'll make you feel better, like there's that chance you might have dodged a bullet



Player 'B' had pocket A's (they said it was an excruciating laydown afterwards).
Player 'A' had pocket 6's (which they showed, but they seem to have disappeared from the replayer?)

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri May 06, 2011 at 12:59 AM..
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 01:11 AM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Player 'B' had pocket A's (they said it was an excruciating laydown afterwards).
I agree that folding AAA66 on that board would be painful. I would feel the pain afterwards though, not before.
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 01:38 AM
(#10)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post

Player 'B' had pocket A's (they said it was an excruciating laydown afterwards).
And a bad laydown I think. He's definitely playing JJ the same way. Even if his range only consists of JJ and 66, there are 3 ways he can have JJ and only 1 way for 66. I'm pretty sure you have to call with AA here. Live there might be some kind of tell, but online? Unless you know for some reason he wouldn't limp JJ on the button.

I think this is similar to when someone makes a lucky call with a hand that is behind most of your range but ahead of the bottom. Here you're making a fold where you're ahead of most of the range but behind the very top.
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 10:06 AM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I think this is similar to when someone makes a lucky call with a hand that is behind most of your range but ahead of the bottom.
That could be the villain in this case if they didn't have the boat and they were shoving - they're just lucky Panicky didn't have it! Or that the fish didn't call.

PS Ya, I don't know if player B had a read or what ... in PSO sometimes you see people several times over for hours at a time, so it's way different from a cash game in that way too ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri May 06, 2011 at 10:15 AM..
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 11:15 AM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
lol, please, player B did not have AA. And AA would be the most horrific laydown ever there the way that hand played out. Player B had at best a flush, if that. They probably had A-rag.
 

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