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Cowboy's Corral next level challenge

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Cowboy's Corral next level challenge - Fri May 06, 2011, 10:41 AM
(#1)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Okay after some time off to regroup and focus after 1000 games of 25/45 I have decided to run up the ladder and do 1000 $.55 x 45 mans in 3 months.

Keep in mind I am taking my $107 earned from the 25/45's as my bankroll and either crushing 1000 games or busto!
My goal is to be 30% roi with the same itm %. I am lowering my roi expectations due to the recent moves made to affect rake.

My first set of games is done and the results are as follows.

SB - $50
1-25 = cashed 5 times for $17
CB - $53.25

$3.25 profit 23.64% roi 20% itm with 975 games to play

Last edited by 19honu62; Sun May 22, 2011 at 08:27 AM..
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 12:05 PM
(#2)
steveisnot's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 467
You won't be playing anymore $0.55 tournies. Something odd has happened. Less rake and somehow less pize money.
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 01:54 PM
(#3)
IroncladMerc's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 581
Looks like it just went into effect today at noon, as I played 4 .55 cent ones this morning. But now they are 59 cents, with 9 cents rake, now you get .5 VPP per game.

But they also changed the rake structure on all the other SnGs too, 25 centers are now 30 cents, 10 cent ones are now 12.

Also, they changed the blind structure and normal SnGs now have 6 minute blinds and turbos have 3 minute blinds. They did add in extra blind levels though to offset the faster blinds a bit.
 
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Fri May 06, 2011, 07:50 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
They have to find a way to recoup the rake they lost when the Americans players got the boot would be my guess.
 
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Sat May 07, 2011, 09:47 AM
(#5)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Well this should be interesting! I am gonna have to brush up on my push/fold ranges!
 
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Sat May 07, 2011, 06:30 PM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Well this should be interesting! I am gonna have to brush up on my push/fold ranges!

Gonna have to re-assess your expectations of these also, I'm afraid honu. I've always been thankful that you pushed the .25 SNG's the way you did and you were right---if you can run at a decent ITM and ROI % they WERE a great way for low BR players to build it up. I'm afraid the 20% rake is going to make WERE the operative word however.

Look at the 1000 .25 45 man challenge that you just killed as an example. You hung up a sick result of a $107 profit and a ROI of 43%. I know that you were a touch let down that you came up just short of a personal challenge that you had put out there for yourself,but you pushed that challenge to be hard enough that just coming close meant that you were going to have a great result in these.

But another number I look at and was going to start judging games that I was going to be looking as high volume grinds (like 45 and 90 mans,360 turbos--any SNG's really as they lend themselves to high volume) and still hope to if we US players can get back on Stars at some point is average $ made per game. In other words,every time I load up a game what,over a decent size sample,am I averaging per sit. You were clearing a 10.7 cent profit EVERY time you loaded up a 45 man during this challenge,on average. With the new $.05 rake added to them your overall profit would have dropped to $57 and an average of 5.7 cents per game. Almost HALF in both cases.

And you KILLED it during this challenge,most peeps aren't going to be able to hang up the numbers you did,not even close.

The bottom line,the real easy to understand math of what Stars has done to these mini-micro SNG's is this---a 20% rake means that a player will have to be a +20% ROI player in these just to BREAK EVEN. How many +20% ROI players are out there?

Yeah,exactly.

Hell I'll throw 2 guys out there that you and I have both faced quite a bit in those .25 45 man's (Hell anyone that plays these had seen them.......),and whom we both mark as very good players---gusivan and hefest19.

If you look at hefest he plays the .25 45 mans almost exclusively,at least as far as what shows on OPR. Gusivan has more of a variety of games in his results (and appears to also be making a switch to the .55 centers) but he has so many of the .25 45 mans in his results that I think it's a fair assumption that the bulk of his ITM and ROI stats are based on his results there.

hefest is a +27% ROI player,gusivan a +12% (for argument's sake I'll bump him up to 17% just in case he ran a little better in the .25 45 mans than elsewhere,also this will reinforce my point even more....).

Put hefest's #'s into your 1000 game challenge. A 27% ROI would translate to a $68 profit in 1000 games,very solid indeed. For gusivan,at the 17% ROI I purposefully bumped him up to,it would mean a $43 profit.

Now add the 5 cent rake into the mix-----

hefest would see his profit drop to $18 and gusivan would actually become a LOSING player with a result of -$7.

And if these 2 can't make a decent profit under the realities of the new math due to the 20% rake Stars is dropping on these games then good luck to the rest of the peeps out there.

This is just a really bad move by Stars in my opinion and really just about destroys the usefulness of these games as a BR building tool.

The only silver lining is that you would receive 280 FPP's for playing 1000 of the .30's (as we should call them now I guess). But I personally don't think that's a particularly equitable trade-off myself.

I'm sticking with my guess that Stars did this to try and recoup some of the rake they've lost with the forced American exodus, but as an American player that leaned on these games I would have to take a long hard look at them if we ever get back on here. Just don't think the value is there anymore (and I was a +36% ROI player over around 265 games in the 45 mans).

Good luck on the challenge if it still makes sense for you to go for it. Hope you kill it 'cause you're going to need to basically.

Effing shame on you Stars.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Sat May 07, 2011 at 06:40 PM..
 
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Sat May 07, 2011, 07:30 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Well this should be interesting! I am gonna have to brush up on my push/fold ranges!
If you know your push/fold ranges, then the hyper-turbos might be worth giving a shot. Only 8% rake, and a really soft field... You might be able to pound out a bigger ROI over 1,000 games in much shorter a time.

I'm going to brush up on mine, too. I have a lot of study material. Hello, next four hours...
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 09:52 PM
(#8)
steveisnot's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 467
[QUOTE=Moxie Pip;278930

The bottom line,the real easy to understand math of what Stars has done to these mini-micro SNG's is this---a 20% rake means that a player will have to be a +20% ROI player in these just to BREAK EVEN. How many +20% ROI players are out there?

.[/QUOTE]

Oh dear! 20% is what I show on OPR for the last 120 days Although I think If i could filter to just the $0.25 45's it would be slightly better. Not much.

Now I'm ****ed.
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 10:45 PM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by steveisnot View Post
Oh dear! 20% is what I show on OPR for the last 120 days Although I think If i could filter to just the $0.25 45's it would be slightly better. Not much.

Now I'm ****ed.

Giving your results just a cursory glance on OPR Steve,I would say that yeah,your .25 45 man results were probably out-stripping that 20%. Closer to 30% maybe,would be my guess.

But you see my point---a +20% ROI player in these when it was .25 to play meant that player was averaging .05 cents profit per game. Well now that profit just went to cover the rake. And like I said,a player that played HUGE volume,like gusivan for instance,who pounds out a +12% ROI (very respectable,remember 90% of players on this site LOSE money,maybe a little higher even..........)whats he to do now? His profit margin per game played was BENEATH what the the new parameters for making a profit are now with the rake.

I'm afraid that the usefulness of these games as BR builders for many of the players that they had that functionality as previously just went by the wayside. And seeing that Stars is really unique unto themselves in offering these type of games (especially at this volume,I mean think about honu's 1000 games in 90 days---nowhere else on-line that you could even think about doing that,not in a .25 game) I just think this is a very bad beat for players trying to grind up roll early in their foray into on-line poker.

But if we US players are ever able to come back onto Stars (and our rake......) I'm sure they'll change it back right?

Right?

Crickets...................

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Sun May 08, 2011 at 10:47 PM..
 
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Mon May 09, 2011, 10:48 AM
(#10)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Well Moxie as always the time put into a response is wonderful.......... but i still gonna grind out these $.59/45's cause well it's what i do! LOL

SB - $53.25
26-50 - cashed 7 times for $26.24
CB - $65.18

$15.18 profit 54.1% roi 24% itm with 950 games left

Last edited by 19honu62; Sun May 22, 2011 at 08:28 AM..
 
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Mon May 09, 2011, 09:05 PM
(#11)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Well Moxie as always the time put into a response is wonderful.......... but i still gonna grind out these $.59/45's cause well it's what i do! LOL

SB - $110.25
26-50 - cashed 7 times for $26.24
CB - $122.18

$15.18 profit 54.1% roi 24% itm with 950 games left

Well I figured you would Captain Assless Chaps,lol. And I'm sure you'll still kill it. I just wonder how you feel about this development,and if losing 4 cents per game in results is worth the bump up in VPP rake in these in your opinion.

For myself--if US players get back on I'll probably still go for a real grind on the .30 45 mans (1000 games sounds good,not sure about 90 days though,that was just the mark of a true sicko--well done again==),but I'm not in favor of giving up that extra nickel per game for some VPP's. I can get my 20 a month for PSO easily enough elsewhere and at my stage in what I was trying to do here on Stars accumulating VPP's wasn't really a priority of mine as the thought of going for Silver Star was going to come when my buy-in level for SNG's/MTT's was more around $1-2,not $0.25.

Given the results you had on the .25's I'm sure you'll put up a strong result at the .55 (.59 now) level. Extrapolating my results over 1000 games,even with the .05 rake addition I would still have turned a profit but at a 36% ROI over 265 games that equals .09 cents profit per game,so $90 over 1000 games. With the rake MORE than half of my profits would be going to the rake,so $90 for 1000 games would drop to $40. Big,big difference. Just as if the rake would have been in effect when you pounded out that 1000 dropping form $107 to $57 would have been a big deal to you,I'm sure. And to me the 280 VPP's ain't worth the $50. Not at those levels.

My point is that at a level that lends itself to high volume requirements for BR advancement,as success is measured in pennies,nickels and dimes,the leavening on the players of .05 or .04 (or even .02 in the 360 Turbos and 240 PLO's) in rake is going to be very detrimental in the ability of most players to utilize these in an attempt to grow their pennyrolls.

And to me that's a shame.

Just wanted to get my thoughts out there on how this change to the basic structure of these games effects even someone who straight kills these things like you do,and how damaging a blow I think that means this is for most of the other players.

Good luck with this grind,sure you'll hit it out of the park.
 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 10:09 AM
(#12)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Moxie I think your numbers are off a bit. Because you are figuring results then subtracting rake which is a common mistake. Consider that the payout structure is similar to the 25/45 and of course my roi should drop but my ITM% should stay about the same. My numbers that I am putting up now are net of rake and so my goal is 30% or more roi or $175 profit on 1000 games. I am trying to play this as a recreational player but to also build a bankroll from nothing and show some realistic numbers.
This is a reasonable expectation, time sensitive, measurable, attainable and specific. When I follow this S.M.A.R.T. plan I usually get ahead and most importantly don't go busto.
I have played 60 games thus far and with my cashes have enough buy ins for 260 games with 940 to go! If I can crush at this level I should be freerolling by game 750 or so!

Gidee Up!

 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 10:15 AM
(#13)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
Moxie I think your numbers are off a bit. Because you are figuring results then subtracting rake which is a common mistake. Consider that the payout structure is similar to the 25/45 and of course my roi should drop but my ITM% should stay about the same. My numbers that I am putting up now are net of rake and so my goal is 30% or more roi or $175 profit on 1000 games. I am trying to play this as a recreational player but to also build a bankroll from nothing and show some realistic numbers.
This is a reasonable expectation, time sensitive, measurable, attainable and specific. When I follow this S.M.A.R.T. plan I usually get ahead and most importantly don't go busto.
I have played 60 games thus far and with my cashes have enough buy ins for 260 games with 940 to go! If I can crush at this level I should be freerolling by game 750 or so!

Gidee Up!

Did Monkeyskunk approve this formula??

Anyways good luck cowboy!!!!
 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 10:25 AM
(#14)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
No but 30 peeps did!
 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 10:35 AM
(#15)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
 
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Wed May 11, 2011, 08:54 AM
(#16)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
SB - $65.18
51-75 cashed 4 times for $9.22
CB - $58.30

$8.47 profit 19.25% roi 20.78% itm 925 games left

SB - $58.30
76 - 100 cashed 10 times for $29.69
CB - $75.31

$25.31 profit 45.61% roi 25% itm 900 games left

Last edited by 19honu62; Sun May 22, 2011 at 08:29 AM..
 
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Thu May 19, 2011, 08:27 AM
(#17)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Wow they changed the rake again! Good move PS thanks.
 
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Thu May 19, 2011, 09:14 AM
(#18)
IroncladMerc's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 581
When are they going to stop rejiggering these things? Seems like every day something is different.
 
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Fri May 20, 2011, 08:46 AM
(#19)
IroncladMerc's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 581
The changed the 50/50s today, now they are $1.50 instead of $1.11, and regular 9 man STTs are $1.50 instead of $1.18 as well.
 
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Fri May 20, 2011, 12:22 PM
(#20)
brkn80's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 440
I played a lot of the $1.11 50/50's, not many of the $1.08.

here's the differences between the 2 new $1.50 turbos and non turbos.

Turbo$1.39+.11 .61 vpp's winners get $1.39 +.04 per 100 chips (3 minute blinds)
Non Turbo$1.35+.15 .83 vpp's winners get$1.35 +.04 per 100 chips(6 minute blinds)

 

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