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Top/Top Flop, 50 BB Effective, I C-Bet in Position and Get Checkraised

 
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Top/Top Flop, 50 BB Effective, I C-Bet in Position and Get Checkraised - Sun May 08, 2011, 04:53 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Here's an interesting hand (imo) from one of today's SCOOP events. I've been thinking about this spot for awhile, because of how difficult I considered the flop situation to be. I basically found myself with top/top against one opponent who decided to checkraise me, and despite our stack depth, I really couldn't just call. I didn't think the villain was bluffing, so it was either an 'I only have one pair, but I still think I'm good' shove, or a 'Wow! That checkraise from a player with your stats is really strong here' fold. I'd really appreciate some new perspectives on this one.

Here are their stats, so you can tell me what you think their range was, which is what my play really comes down to, I think. I don't know how to look up my stats from the one tourney, so I'll estimate from what I remember.

SB: #Hands 80, VPIP 14, VPIP from SB 22, PFR 5, PFR from SB 0, this hand was the first time I saw them Call Open from SB, Limp 3, 3Bet 0, Aggression Factor 1.7

Me: #Hands 83, VPIP ~30, VPIP from MP ~28, PFR ~20, PFR from MP ~15, Limp ~3, 3Bet ~10, Aggression Factor ~2.2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 22 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t8030)
BB (t7600)
UTG (t17280)
UTG+1 (t14538)
MP1 (t8910)
Panicky (MP2) (t9301)
MP3 (t29428)
CO (t4846)
Button (t21644)

Panicky's M: 22.97

Preflop: Panicky is MP2 with Q, A
3 folds, Panicky bets t395, 3 folds, SB calls t320, 1 fold

Flop: (t1120) Q, 6, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Panicky bets t750, SB raises to t1500,
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 05:21 PM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
solid player.. flopped a set
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 05:37 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
solid player.. flopped a set
A set was definitely a part of his range. But there were other possibilities that I saw. I figured that with antes and a pretty small open from me, a lot of hands besides pocket pairs could come along for the ride. Specifically, I thought that KQs, QJs, and JTs might do this as well, because they'd make good calling hands, even out of position. What's more, the board was about as dry as they come, so my c-bet could easily have come off as a bluff. My c-bet percentage was only around 66%, but I was running incredibly laggy for a full-ring table. I'd say about 80% of my range missed this flop.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun May 08, 2011 at 06:09 PM..
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 08:03 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
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that really sounds like 66 or 99, especially from a solid player... to me. Real outside chance on Q9s, but I'd be thinking a set. Either way, it sounds like you're in deep trouble and I'd be trying to find a better situation to get my chips into.
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 08:14 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
solid player
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
especially from a solid player...
Not necessarily. Tight, yes, but I wasn't getting a read that they were especially skilled.
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 08:46 PM
(#6)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
The SCOOP tourney I played today was my first deep stack tournament - interesting element all the 3betting and reraising that the deep stack afforded. The stacks are too little for that kind of play in PSO.

This is one of my favorite youtube poker clips - I used to think it was the funniest thing ever because they got in so deep when they each had nothing.

Phil Ivey versus Phil Jackson

But I was watching some of the later tables with the pros, and there seemed to be a lot of this type of play in the middle stages of the tourney - people trying to feel each other out ... do they have anything, will they fold, where do I stand sort of a deal?

I wish there were other ways to get more experience with this type of play that don't have $22 entrance fees

PS I really can't tell if they had what it seems like they have (the trip, a bigger pocket pair) after all the reraising I saw today. It seems like they did, but maybe they didn't? I really have no idea - guess we'll have to wait for Langolier

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun May 08, 2011 at 09:12 PM..
 
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Sun May 08, 2011, 09:27 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I wish there were other ways to get more experience with this type of play that don't have $22 entrance fees
There are. One of them is called the Sunday Million, and it has a $215 entry.
 
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Mon May 09, 2011, 05:38 AM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
CRITICAL Factor I consider in this spot is: How often does he defend, and have I taken a couple blinds from him...

I'm really not thinking this guy has made a set.

The board is really only coordinated for STRAIGHT draws, and with 78/JT the only "scary" draws, why is he check/raising you on the flop instead of the turn? Unless, of course, he perceives you as so LOOSE that those are MP raising hands for you...

So I'm more inclined to think: AA/KK or Less than you hold Panicky.

On a 30% VPIP, there is a strong chance this guy is putting you to the test Panicky, or that he came along on KQ or even QJ since he actually INCREASES his VPIP from the SB. Add in the fact you made a smaller than 3x raise, and you might have a dude "testing" you with cheese....OR it is set!

To me, this is a big "feel" play, plus one where you have to be cognizant of what YOUR image is and if opponents are re-acting to that info...

I think you are spot on though: you cannot re-raise less than your stack here, and you cannot really "flat" since he will lead on the turn. So if you did not think the villain is bluffing then your fold was exactly what I'd think you should do.

Last edited by JDean; Mon May 09, 2011 at 05:43 AM..
 
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Mon May 09, 2011, 04:30 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
The guy actually did seem to be defending a lot from the blinds. I'm basing that on his stats, though; it wasn't an in-game observation. He was across the table from me, so blind defense wasn't exactly sticking out at the time. I took monster hands out of his range that he should have reraised with preflop; I just decided to not even consider hands like AA-QQ or AQ.

After this hand ended, I did the math to take a look at my equity if I did range him correctly. If he would check-raise KQ, QJ, JT, 99, and 66, and if he would fold the KQ and QJ to a shove, I found that shoving would be +EV by over 1,000 chips, which surprised me quite a bit. Of course, I might have made an error in the calculations. One of the reasons that I posted this was to see what you guys thought of my evaluation of the guy's range. If I ranged him correctly, then I believe the optimal play would have been to shove.

I've asked a few other people about this hand since I posted this thread, and I got some interesting points. One of them was that c-betting this flop might have been a mistake, which I think is an interesting idea.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon May 09, 2011 at 04:33 PM..
 
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Mon May 09, 2011, 04:55 PM
(#10)
ssuglia's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,393
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
There are. One of them is called the Sunday Million, and it has a $215 entry.
I think Sam is wanting deep stack tournament with a lower buy in, to gain more experience in that setting.
 
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Mon May 09, 2011, 05:25 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssuglia View Post
I think Sam is wanting deep stack tournament with a lower buy in, to gain more experience in that setting.
haha - that'd be like $107/hr the way I play
 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 03:56 AM
(#12)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
How can C betting this flop be a mistake?

You WANT this guy getting a free card if he calls liberally from the blinds?

Bottom line here is still: if you didn't feel he was bluffing, then the fold was good. The pot wasn't a large enough part of your stack yet to get you married here, and if you keep going it would have been.
 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 03:44 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Not necessarily. Tight, yes, but I wasn't getting a read that they were especially skilled.
Thank you for this, 14/5 is NOT SOLID, it's pretty terrible actually. The guy is tight/passive pre. 22/0 from the SB is indicative that he's defending a bit more frequently than his normal stats but only by calling, consistent with his passive genre. Post flop AF supports a passive read as well, 1.7 isn't exactly calling station but it's definitely more on the passive side as aggressive players will generally be north of 2.

I guess the key for me is how often I expect this guy to check-raise. Is he check-raising KQ? Because that's a bit aggro for a passive player. If we think he is, then I would call this raise, because a player like this is virtually always going to shut down on the turn with KQ/QJ type hands once they get called. If we think he's not, then it's a fold.

This isn't a bad spot for a delayed c-bet, checking the flop has merit in that regard... with a dry board and very little concern for free cards hurting you as there's only 1 over that's problematic, you can check back the flop planning to call/call, or bet if he checks again. I don't think that's the best line against a semi-loose defender who is passive in general. Because the board is dry and your image laggy, I think we can get value from a ton of worse made hands like worse Q's obviously, and pocket pairs or 2nd pair type holdings. Especially if he would only c/r with big hands, then I definitely prefer bet/fold on the flop.
 
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Tue May 10, 2011, 11:26 PM
(#14)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
This isn't a bad spot for a delayed c-bet, checking the flop has merit in that regard... with a dry board and very little concern for free cards hurting you as there's only 1 over that's problematic, you can check back the flop planning to call/call, or bet if he checks again. I don't think that's the best line against a semi-loose defender who is passive in general. Because the board is dry and your image laggy, I think we can get value from a ton of worse made hands like worse Q's obviously, and pocket pairs or 2nd pair type holdings. Especially if he would only c/r with big hands, then I definitely prefer bet/fold on the flop.
C-betting epiphany.
 

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