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situation to consider...

 
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situation to consider... - Thu May 12, 2011, 05:49 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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The following is not an actual hand, but rather a situation which I think would be good to discuss.

SITUATION:
$10+$1
45 man SNG
pays 7, 8 left
Blinds = 300/600, 70 ante
Pre-Flop Pot = 1460
(all stacks before before Antes/blinds)

BB = YOU, 10,000 (before Antes/blinds)
SB = P1, 9200
UTG = 3600
UTG+1 = 3300
MP1 = 3700
MP2 = 3100
CO = 17,600
BTN = 17,000

UTG, UTG+1 FOLD.
MP1 goes all-in, pot = 5090
MP2 FOLDS
CO RAISES to 10,000 to go, pot = 15,090
BTN FOLDS
SB CALLS all-in, Main pot = 12,050, Side pot = 10,500

You must call All-in for 9430 to continue, and this will create a 2nd side pot of 1200.

INFO:

YOU-
You have been playing a 19/12 game throughout the event, and have maintained near these numbers at the final table.

You got all in "behind" after open raising AQs from MP on a 19 BB stack, and being shoved on by a simliar stack held by a "loose" player who woke up with QQ; you spiked an A to survive though. Other than this, you've open raised 4 pots at the FT, and got called once (when you held JJ). The other 3 times you won the blinds/antes.

You have not been rampantly defending your blinds, but you have not necessarily been passively conceding them either, and you do not necessarily feel anyone is "targetting" your blinds.

Your image appears to be one of a TAG, and you generally are accorded "respect" at this table.

MP1-
He had\s been at your table throughout the event. When on a more "normal sized stack, he had been a pretty reasonable 16/10, and had not shown down any true rag hands.
His overall game "knowledge" appears to be good.

Since becoming "short", and nearing the bubble, he seems to be open shoving a little bit wider, but does not appear to be shoving simply with "first in vig".

CO-
He has been a bit of a "bully" at the final table, but not wildly so. You only have info from his final table play, and that shows him to be a 27/19.

He has open raised and been shoved on (by shorter stacks) 6 times at the final table. He called 3 times (AKs, QJs, and 66), and folded 3 times. 3 hands before this he called a shove by the SB, and lost with his 66.

You perceive him to be a little bit loose, but far form "wildly" so, and his game knowledge appears to be decent.

SB-
He has been up and down at the FT, and has a 29/10 VPiP. Additionally, he seems to be targetting the CO for play, and his chat has indicated he believes this player to be a "big donkey".

He has just recently (3 hands before) won an all-in vs the CO holding AQo vs 66, and made many derisive comments directed at the CO after his win.

You perceive this person as being one who is prone to "steam" play, but also one who has some sense of bubble play. You rate his overall game knowledge s average to slightly below average.

QUESTIONS:

1) What range do you put the open shover on?
2) What range do you put the re-raiser on?
3) What range do you put the SB on?
4) Based on your range reads, What hand range do YOU need to call in here?

Last edited by JDean; Thu May 12, 2011 at 07:53 AM..
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 10:02 AM
(#2)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
I'm going to have a stab here (probably way off) but you only learn by trying

I'd say:

1. Being relatively solid he knows he needs to chip up or he's out in only a few orbits, I'd estimate any pair about 7's or above, any A and any two JT+

2. This guy must think he has an edge over the first, and prices his raise to try and discourage others. Perhaps he's around the top 5-10% of hands, so 88+, AJs+ and AKo

3. This guy should be looking to take advantage of the other two only with something at least better than their possible range, but he's also likely to underestimate player 2 so he could be as wide as top 10% of hands, giving him 77+ and pretty much any two suited paint cards, KQo+

4. My thinking here went two ways, 1st is the safe approach theory, which is simply that since 1 or more people is likely to bust out on this hand theres no real need to add another possible to the mix. Simply fold whatever you have and wait for a better opportunity when in the money on the next hand. 2nd we need to be concerned with both the CO and the SB's ranges since 1 can cripple us and the other bust us. So I ran the analysis based on that. The result I got based on the ranges specified was only around 55% equity for QQ+ making this seem pretty marginal to me. It kinda leads me back to my first point. Yes we could win a huge pot but it would seem safer to let the bubble go first than risk it all here.

PS: Of course My ranging is the part I'm trying to work on the most so won't be surprised if I'm way out here.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 10:47 AM
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JDean's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OMGCBF View Post
I'm going to have a stab here (probably way off) but you only learn by trying

I'd say:

1. Being relatively solid he knows he needs to chip up or he's out in only a few orbits, I'd estimate any pair about 7's or above, any A and any two JT+

2. This guy must think he has an edge over the first, and prices his raise to try and discourage others. Perhaps he's around the top 5-10% of hands, so 88+, AJs+ and AKo

3. This guy should be looking to take advantage of the other two only with something at least better than their possible range, but he's also likely to underestimate player 2 so he could be as wide as top 10% of hands, giving him 77+ and pretty much any two suited paint cards, KQo+

4. My thinking here went two ways, 1st is the safe approach theory, which is simply that since 1 or more people is likely to bust out on this hand theres no real need to add another possible to the mix. Simply fold whatever you have and wait for a better opportunity when in the money on the next hand. 2nd we need to be concerned with both the CO and the SB's ranges since 1 can cripple us and the other bust us. So I ran the analysis based on that. The result I got based on the ranges specified was only around 55% equity for QQ+ making this seem pretty marginal to me. It kinda leads me back to my first point. Yes we could win a huge pot but it would seem safer to let the bubble go first than risk it all here.

PS: Of course My ranging is the part I'm trying to work on the most so won't be surprised if I'm way out here.
- I'd agree pretty much with #1. The only thing I'd add is any pp is possibly good enough to stand on here, and MAYBE QT/JT is a bit "lite" to stand on, since the initial shover is going to have a small "advantage" in terms of getting ITM being that there are 2 stacks that are shorter, and closer to the blinds.

- I'd disagree SLIGHTLY with your #2, simply to say that this guy could possibly be isolating with hands like AT or A9 even, or KQ. This is a "risk" to him, since the only stack which can cripple him is left to act, but his "style" has seemed to show he will do this with some frequency. I'm not totally "sold" that he would do this on ANY pp though, but his past showdowns may indicate we can include down to 66.

- The #3 is trickiest, but that is the one we kinda have to be most "worried" about, despite the negatives we have seen in his play. His stack is easily going to get him to the money with a fold, so a lot of the bottom end of his calling range vs the CO is probably going out of his calling range here. We have "seen" he will risk calling off his stack with AQo though, so that's in his range, and if we credit him with WANTING to "bang" on the CO, we may want AJs there too. I'm thinking he is only playing pp that are 88 or 99+ though, since "racing" with less than those is not something he "needs".

Finally...

With all this info, the question boils down to: how much is winning THIS pot "worth" to us, and how much "risk" will we accept to do so?

The first thing I think on is the fact that we are the 2nd biggest all-in stack here. This means that if the shorty wins, and the biggest guy takes us and the SB out, we are itm. If the SB wins, the shorty is out, and we are itm but "crippled". If the biggest stack wins, we are itm in 5th and out of the event. If we FOLD we are almost surely itm.

ased on these factors, plus the size of the pot, we (obviously) should seek a little bit more than the ~2.3 to 1 the pot odds are laying us (~30% to win "needed"). The fact we would move into a pretty LARGE chip lead with a win though, and that this would make getting to the top 3 spots a lot more likely, means I do not think we want to pass up a 50/50 shot. My ""gut" tells me that around 40% to 45% equity seems about "right".

Using the read info from above in poker stove, I find that :

MP1 is on a 25.2% "range"
CO is on a 11.3% "range"
SB is on a 5.9% "range"

We need to be on:
QQ+ or AKs for ~49.5% equity
JJ+ or AKs for ~43.3% equity
QQ+ or AKx for ~42.4% equity
or
JJ+ or AKx for ~39.0% equity

A couple of interesting things of note:

-There is a significant difference in the equity inclusion of AKo in lieu of AKs here.
In more "normal" NLHE situations, AKo plays pretty much the same as AKs, simply because relying on draw value is such a small part of the hands you'll make. It seems as if the multi-way nature of this pot greatly inhances the value of suitedness.

-Including JJ in your calling range takes away a lot of the equity you'd have. Again, this seems to be due to the multi-way nature of this pot, and the fact you are likely to be facing a "net" 3 overs, instead of 2, albeit with some of those "outs" against you being "shared".

I''d really be interested in any OTHER thoguhts about calling in to this situation, especially regarding the risk acceptance decision of how MUCH equity you'd want to come along.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 01:03 PM
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OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
Is it worthwhile to split it into separate equations?

I was thinking about it in terms of

1. Chance to end the tournament for us (requiring us only to be concerned with the 2 large stacks ranges vs our own. This gives us the % of times we would be effectively out of the tournament.

2. Chance to win the whole pot (using all 3 other players) giving is the equity as you presented.

3. Chance to make the money if we fold i.e. one of the two lower stacks gets busted.

I know its a little counter to the traditional way EV is calculated (as I'm not doing the full chips vs equity calc) and I'm not sure if its even logically or mathematically correct to do it, but plugging it in that way I end up with ~53% equity for #1 which effectively translates to 47% chance of tournament death if you look at it like that.

#3 is interesting to also look at in that if we fold, it only needs for either of the 2 bigger stacks to win the pot for us to be itm. That seems to come out at about 75%

I know there should be a corresponding pot odds that makes it worthwhile to make this call but I just can't seem to get over the fact that its a tournament situation and we're considering a 43% to finish with nothing vs ~75% to finish in the money after this hand by folding.

I may be completely wrong here in the way I'm using these figures but thats just how I see them.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 07:36 PM
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Look at it from an ICM point of view:

If all players have equal "skill", then your equity in the PRIZE POOL is related to the percent of the chips in play you have.

45 x 1500 = 67500 chips in play. Prize Pool = $450
1st = $157.50
2nd = $112.50
3rd = $72
4th = $36
5th = $31.50
6th = $22.50
7th = $18

YOU = 14.8% of chips, $66.60 equity in prize pool
SB = 13.6% of chips, $61.20 equity in prize pool
UTG = 5.3% of chips, $23.85 equity in prize pool
UTG+1 = 4.9% of chips, $22.05 equity in prize pool
MP1 = 5.5% of chips, $24.75 equity in prize pool
MP2 = 4.6% of chips, $20.70 equity in prize pool
CO = 26.1% of chips, $117.45 equity in prize pool
BTN = 25.2% of chips, $113.40 equity in prize pool

So our potential outcomes are:

If we FOLD everything, we guarentee that we continue forward with 9370 in chips, or 13.9% equity in the prize pool ($62.55).

The worst case for us is that the MP1 players wins the main pot, the SB wins the 1st side pot, and the CO wins the 2nd side pot. In that case we are out short of itm.

Next worse is If we CALL, and lose to the SB, and the MP1 survives. We go to 2400 in chips, or 3.6% of chips ($16.20 prize pool equity). We would post 370 of that on the NEXT hand, but be through our blinds with other short stacks entering their blinds. We are not yet itm, but We could still make it to the money with our chances severely hurt.

Next, If we CALL, and lose to the SB or CO, and the MP1 busts, we go to 2400 in chips (or out). But if we bust, we'd be itm with at least an $18 pay out, and perhaps a $22.50 pay day. Again, we have severely short stacks headed to the blinds which means if we "survived" with 2400 chips (by beating just the CO), we would have a small chance of going up 1 (or more) pay spots.

Next, If we CALL, and lose to the shortest stack only, we increase our stack to 11.7k, or 17.3% in play ($77.85 prize pool equity). We would be itm, and guarenteed at least an $18 pay out.

Finally, If we call and win everything, we go to 23,750 (35.2% in play), and out prize pool equity climbs to $158.40.

So...

If you "break it down" into seperate and individual calcs, you are not really getting the full picture I believe. Sure, the only person you must "'beat" here to make it ITM is the shortest stack, but if that is the ONLY person you beat, you are essentially "trading" the equity you'd have after a FOLD (13.9%), for a maximum of 3.6% equity.

Of course there is also a chance we increase our prize pool equity by a wide margin, almost assuring ourselves of a top 3 finish. This "chance" to vastly increase our chances of a deep run probably demands that we will call in at least SOME of the time. The question remains; what chance do we "need" to come along?

I think you CAN make a case for consideirng only the hands the SB and MP1 players are on though, simply because beating both of those players means you will be guarenteed $22.50. Since you are potentially trading your $62.55 equity (after a fold) for a $22.50 pay out, I'd think you would need at least a 55% to 60% equity versus BOTH the ranges of the SB and MP1. That would mean:

QQ+, AKs = 56.37%
or
JJ+, AKs = 53.29%

and...

QQ+, AKx = 50.92% is probably not QUITE enough.

I find it pretty interesting that the call in range for us really doesn't change a whole lot even if we are considering only 2 of our 3 opponents. This is almost certainly because we are looking at our equity "needs" to INCREASE to make it worthwhile to stand for our entire stacks versus fewer opponents, simply because the pot is smaller. Of course the above calc is "assuming" the CO and his chip addition to the pot has "disappeared", and that is somewhat un-realisitic, but the fact we simply MUST have a solid chance to beat both the SB and MP1 to make this a worthwhile call sort of argues for higher equity if we jsut look at those 2 hands.

The fact is, it looks like the above 2 ranges for a call by us are what we'd be looking for...

Do you agree?

Last edited by JDean; Thu May 12, 2011 at 07:45 PM..
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 09:42 PM
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the MP1 open shove could be just about anything. If they are going to play a hand, then they're going to shove, so could be any pair, any broadway draws, any A or any suited cards.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 09:43 PM
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the raiser (CO) wants to isolate against the MP1 shove, so they SHOULD have a pkt pair, big A, broadway suited draw, or maybe a suited connector.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 09:46 PM
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SB, with 2 other all-in's, I'd put him on a pkt pair or AKs, maybe AQs or KQs.

You'd think that he thought he was ahead of the raiser.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 09:50 PM
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with that many all in, I'd want to be certain not to be the worst hand in it and to guarantee that, I'd want a big pkt QQ+.

If you have a lower hand, let them battle each other and get you ITM, then go after everyone for moving up the payscale. Even if you didn't play the hand, you're probably going to be 3rd stack and will more than likely be ITM when it's over.
 
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Thu May 12, 2011, 11:43 PM
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JD I do agree with what you've posted there.

Its pretty much the same direction I was going in albeit a vastly more detailed analysis than my relatively generalised one.

One thing I would ask though is this. Using the ICM approach as you did there, I can see how this is completely applicable after the bubble (as theoretically you have x% of the prize pool based on your chip stack, all other things being equal) , and I can also see the argument holds water in the mid stages of the tournament (as larger chip stack should improve chances to make the money)

But as the bubble approachs and becomes imminent (in this case likely this hand). Is it correct to think ONLY this way? Of course it is a factor, but should not more weight be given to the potential knockout?

I'm kinda flopping back and forth here about whether this should be something I need to address within myself to play "without fear" or whether to "play safe". At the moment I lean far more toward the second, as yet I haven't identified it as a limit to my game but I'm quite new to this so my opinion may change as time moves on.

As a purely theoretical exercise as you put it then yes I would agree, calling in with QQ+ or possibly AKs is really the only range I personally would go in with. At the moment I rather suspect I'd be around 70-80% likely to fold even that range in this spot but if I were to call or wanted to "gamble" that'd be the range I'd be using.
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 06:49 PM
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The "weight" you place on the potential knock out, versus the VALUE of the chip increase you'd derive is going to be effected by a lot of factors ICM does not address very well. Things like:

-Relative Skill level between you and your opponents.
This matters more based upon the "M" value, or the amount of POST FLOP play in your stack; obviously a 6M sack does not give much room for you to "out-play" an opponent, where a 15-20M stack may.

-Table Dynamic.
If there are a lot of people at the table who may "need" to make a stand, and you have a decent amount more than those players, you may derive greater benefit from waiting longer simply because you will tend to move up multiple spots.

-Blind Escalation.
On line events tend to have fast blind escalation, and even with a chip "advantage" over multiple players, a single ill-timed blind increase when you are UTG MAY put you in a bad spot when you post "extra" out of your short-ish stack, and fall to the level of the palyers you HAD an "advantage" against.

So...

The fact of the matter is ICM is not a "panacea" that is going to make close decisions clear in all cases. The reality is your personal risk/reward assessment is going to be needed in almost every bubble, and near bubble decision.

One thing I would note:

If your ONLY desire is to get ITM, then you are probably playing long term LOSING MTT and SNG poker. Consider this:

$1.20 9 man SNG pays 3 spots.
3rd = $1.80
2nd = $2.70
1st = $4.50

Let's say you play 100 of these events, and your results show you are playing "par" poker.
(By "par poker" I mean you are cashing 1/3rd the time, and your cashes are distributed 1/3rd 1st, 1/3rd 2nds, 1/3rd 3rds).

After 100 events you'd have paid $120 in buy-ins.
You'd have 33 ITM finishes.
11 of those would be 3rds, 11 2nds, 11, 1sts.

You'd have "made" $49.50 + $29.70 + $19.80 = $99
OR
-$21.00 ROI

Even if you factor in a 34th cash, and make that a "win", you;d still be well UNDER profitability.

In order to "break even" in those events, you will have to cash about 40% of the time, with a 1/3rd distribution of finishes.

40 ITM
13.33 1st x $4.50 = $59.99
13.33 2nd x $2.70 = $35.99
13.33 3rd x $1.80 = $23.99.........................$119.97

See?

What that means is simple:

If you pass up situations TOO often that will propel you deeply, and opt instead for the min cash (or near min cash), you will tend to see MORE of the lower level cashes.

If you see too many low level cashes in relation to your top end finishes, you will have to make it ITM a LOT more than "normal" to break even.

We identified a very TIGHT range for us to make our stand in this example. That range had AA (pretty much an auto stand), KK (almost an auto stand), QQ and AKs. Only QQ and AKs are a bit "questionable" in terms of going ahead, relying on the quality of our reads, and standing. If you are reluctant to make those kinds of decisions, and elect to "play it safe" too often, then you had BETTER be cashing upwards of 50%+ in single table SNG's...

...unless your GOAL is to be near profitable, but not quite there.
 
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Mon May 16, 2011, 04:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
What that means is simple:

If you pass up situations TOO often that will propel you deeply, and opt instead for the min cash (or near min cash), you will tend to see MORE of the lower level cashes.

If you see too many low level cashes in relation to your top end finishes, you will have to make it ITM a LOT more than "normal" to break even.

We identified a very TIGHT range for us to make our stand in this example. That range had AA (pretty much an auto stand), KK (almost an auto stand), QQ and AKs. Only QQ and AKs are a bit "questionable" in terms of going ahead, relying on the quality of our reads, and standing. If you are reluctant to make those kinds of decisions, and elect to "play it safe" too often, then you had BETTER be cashing upwards of 50%+ in single table SNG's...

...unless your GOAL is to be near profitable, but not quite there.
I'm really fascinated by the different styles of play, and I really like this idea of expanding one's style to be more flexible as different situations arise. Like I guess there's certain hard and fast universal rules, like if you KNOW you're up against AA, you might want to fold! LOL

But then there's some people who play very tight and do extremely well, and there's people who play less tight (but still tight) and do extremely well. So I like that idea of JD's of being open to seeing what it is that's so attractive and appealing about other common styles of play that aren't your own, like they might have something to them if it's always the SAME types of people showing up at every final table sort of a deal?

It's kind of neat to see all the different styles at play.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 11:50 AM
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Hey, here's an actual hand from a GOYL qualifier I played yesterday that's kind of similar to the hypothetical in that there were 4 hands, although we all had about the same sized stacks. We were all above the cutoff point, but there was still a ways to go before the bubble, so it wasn't totally clear that we were totally safe if we just sat.



I'm sure some people will think it was terrible play for me to fold KK, but by folding I got to go on and play QQ against a shorter stack with 68o and lose- yikes LOL. But I got my ticket

I mean like I was the favorite going in, but I didn't have better than average odds - in the hypothetical, probably I'd have passed too, and focused on using position and fold equity to play lesser hands as low as KTs against the short-stacks? Maybe some people think that's a terrible idea though - I've only been playing less than a year ...

Pre-flop odds for hand shown in the replayer (if I had played)
AKo: 21%
QQ: 18%
77: 18%
KK: 42%

PS. KTs versus say like AQo head-to-head odds: also 42%

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed May 18, 2011 at 12:05 PM..
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 01:01 PM
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Sam, in a multiway pot like that, I don't mind folding KK there. Yes, you had the best odds of the 4, but you will still lose the hand more often than you'll win. You've got plenty of chips left and can find a better spot to get them into.

Especially since it's a sat, the one and only goal is to get the ticket to the next game. If you do have enough, then sit back and get the ticket..... if not, then find a situation where you're a good size favorite to win the hand and get your chips in there.

In a satellite like that, I'm trying to avoid big multiway pots unless I've seen the board and know that my hand is the nuts.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Sam, in a multiway pot like that, I don't mind folding KK there. Yes, you had the best odds of the 4, but you will still lose the hand more often than you'll win. You've got plenty of chips left and can find a better spot to get them into.

Especially since it's a sat, the one and only goal is to get the ticket to the next game. If you do have enough, then sit back and get the ticket..... if not, then find a situation where you're a good size favorite to win the hand and get your chips in there.

In a satellite like that, I'm trying to avoid big multiway pots unless I've seen the board and know that my hand is the nuts.
Cool, cool!!! Thx JWK

I know what JD was getting at up above about min-cashes and profitability, but it still sounded kind of funny that having a lot of min-cashes could be a 'problem' since lately I wasn't cashing at all. My favorite game are those single table 6-max turbos, and I used to cash in them almost all the time, but then I started trying all sorts of stuff and wound up getting in a real rut and not cashing in them at all. So just reading about how being tight helped improve cashes gave me that idea to tighten up and be more patient, and stay focused on making the money and it seems to have really improved my returns. I feel like it helped me win this ticket.

Some interesting stuff from this table - I was sitting in between 2 'maniacs' whose stacks were up and down and up and down, and across from a 'nit'. And the 'maniac' to my right managed to get a ticket, but not before being called "crazy" by somebody (LOL) and ended up on the 'up'. The 'maniac' to my left finished in 68th place with 67 tickets being given out. The 'nit' came in at #67. It was pretty interesting to watch those two styles and see how they fared ...
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 07:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Cool, cool!!! Thx JWK

I know what JD was getting at up above about min-cashes and profitability, but it still sounded kind of funny that having a lot of min-cashes could be a 'problem' since lately I wasn't cashing at all. My favorite game are those single table 6-max turbos, and I used to cash in them almost all the time, but then I started trying all sorts of stuff and wound up getting in a real rut and not cashing in them at all. So just reading about how being tight helped improve cashes gave me that idea to tighten up and be more patient, and stay focused on making the money and it seems to have really improved my returns. I feel like it helped me win this ticket.

Some interesting stuff from this table - I was sitting in between 2 'maniacs' whose stacks were up and down and up and down, and across from a 'nit'. And the 'maniac' to my right managed to get a ticket, but not before being called "crazy" by somebody (LOL) and ended up on the 'up'. The 'maniac' to my left finished in 68th place with 67 tickets being given out. The 'nit' came in at #67. It was pretty interesting to watch those two styles and see how they fared ...
Sam.

The MAJOR difference here, over the example hand, is the fact you are in a FLAT PAY STRUCTURE event. By definition, those events give NO ICM "advantage" for reaching the money point with extra chips. As such, you will be less likely to risk an all-in such as the one here.

The time to consider coming along with your KK would be FARTHER away from the bubble, when the "need" for chips to run to the bubble is greater. As you approach the bubble it becomes easier to "see" how many players are at greater risk than you are for making your ticket. Without the incentive of increased pay out for higher finishes, you have zero incentive for incurring additional risk to accumulate chips so long as your stack is such that you CAN make the money with your current chips. Example:

For a flat pay structure event it is conceivable that you;d fold AA pre-flop heads up. why? Let's look...

If you are in an event that pays 6 tickets to the WSOP ME, and there are 7 left.
YOU are 2nd in chips with 20BB+, with 3 stacks at or below about 5BB.
The biggest stack, with 50BB, goes all in every hand.
Would you call with AA, even if no one else did?

HELL NO!

Even though you are likely an 80%+ "favorite" versus the big stack all-in, the 3 players on very short stacks make your chances in excess of 90% to 95% to make the ticket by FOLDING. For a ticket worth what is likely a BIG increase in your bank roll, why would you CONSIDER "trading" 90%+ equity, for something in the neighborhood of 80%? There is absolutely nothing more to gain by doing so...

So in the example you cite, I too have no real issue with you folding KK; you simply do NOT gain enough by taking that all-in to make it worth the risk.

Were it a STANDARD pay structure, with most of the money in the top 3 spots, then the story is probably vastly different...
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 08:59 PM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Yeah - true, true. Like with the pay structure you gave before, one 3rd place finish and one bust out is worth more than two 7ths:

1st = $157.50
2nd = $112.50
3rd = $72
4th = $36
5th = $31.50
6th = $22.50
7th = $18

I guess it's maybe something I'll have to try to embrace. Everybody says we're supposed to play tight at the beginning, and more loose at the end, but I seem to have it backwards. Here's a multi-way pot I played at the beginning of that same GOYL qualifier



Odds:
A4s: 32%
33: 25%
22: 16%
K7o: 27%

I suppose if I don't mind doing it early, I shouldn't mind rolling the dice later on either. Maybe it's natural to sort of tighten up a little once it gets closer to the money, but I've noticed that yeah most of the people with the bigger pots get more loose. I'm often shocked at some of the hands they show - K7o, 22, A4o (any position) ... I guess it's kind of a way to grab those blinds and antes though if you play more than the tighter people? I've been doing some of this when the players are passive. But when the players are loose and aggressive, bluffy, I've been getting really tense.

I've been playing a lot of games outside of PSO to try out some of the suggestions like shoving to avoid falling under the 10BB threshold, and I've been really happy with the results. PSO League's awesome, but that's one thing that's probably penalized more than it's rewarded what with the flat pay structure post-money and the negative points for finishing early. So hopefully I can play two different ways and not get confused?

I'll have to look for opportunities like this JD - to take some chances. I'll see how it goes

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed May 18, 2011 at 09:02 PM..
 

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