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SB - Play or Fold?

 
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SB - Play or Fold? - Sun May 15, 2011, 01:59 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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This is kind of a basic question that I feel I should know the answer to, but I'm still not sure. If everybody folds to the blinds, and it's only an extra couple of chips to see the flop, should we be playing these if the BB isn't especially aggressive? Under the theory that any two cards will rarely be worse than at a 2:1 disadvantage?



And if we play, should we be raising?
Or is it more than just starting odds - are we wanting to avoid tricky post-flop play out of position with crap cards?

I've just been folding. Thx for the help!
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 02:13 PM
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Stack size!! It's shove or fold for you. If BB is a nit, you could shove. Otherwise fold and wait for something suited, something with a face, an ace, a pair, some bigger connected cards etc. With no antes you won't bleed chips away until your BB, so you'll still have 685 chips to shove with. Hopefully you can find a better spot by then. If not you push all in UTG with any two cards before paying the BB cripples you.
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Stack size!! It's shove or fold for you. If BB is a nit, you could shove. Otherwise fold and wait for something suited, something with a face, an ace, a pair, some bigger connected cards etc. With no antes you won't bleed chips away until your BB, so you'll still have 685 chips to shove with. Hopefully you can find a better spot by then. If not you push all in UTG with any two cards before paying the BB cripples you.
I did in fact do that - twice, and busted out the second time against committed1, who I just didn't have any fold equity against

I guess the question went more to the idea that if there's little difference between 685 and 610, is it worth it to pay to see that extra flop in the hopes of implementing a 'stop and go' if something hits?
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 03:16 PM
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Stop and go means you shove the flop period. Not if something hits. You commit preflop to shove the flop whether you hit or not. If the BB is super passive there is some merit to seeing a flop. But with 64 offsuit, you're really not going to hit well enough or often enough to make it worth your while. Also, your stack is double the pot if BB checks, so a limp and go is risking too many chips since he's folding about as often as if you had only a potsize bet (when you bet more you need to win the pot more often), and I'm fairly sure that's -EV.

Better to bust out than blind out. You're short-stacked, you need to gamble and try to double up. Steal a few pots and hope that when you finally get called your hand wins and you get a nice double up. Look, you're super-low on chips. Chances of you making it deep in this tourney are really low. You just need to take a gamble with some cards with potential. 64 suited, 58 suited, A3 offsuit, JT off, etc. You can still dump a few hands. And yeah UTG you shove blind if you haven't doubled up yet.
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Stop and go means you shove the flop period. Not if something hits. You commit preflop to shove the flop whether you hit or not. If the BB is super passive there is some merit to seeing a flop. But with 64 offsuit, you're really not going to hit well enough or often enough to make it worth your while. Also, your stack is double the pot if BB checks, so a limp and go is risking too many chips since he's folding about as often as if you had only a potsize bet (when you bet more you need to win the pot more often), and I'm fairly sure that's -EV.

Better to bust out than blind out. You're short-stacked, you need to gamble and try to double up. Steal a few pots and hope that when you finally get called your hand wins and you get a nice double up. Look, you're super-low on chips. Chances of you making it deep in this tourney are really low. You just need to take a gamble with some cards with potential. 64 suited, 58 suited, A3 offsuit, JT off, etc. You can still dump a few hands. And yeah UTG you shove blind if you haven't doubled up yet.
I guess in posting the question I was really wanting to know more about playing from the SB out of position with mediocre cards - is this a fold 100% of the time for you then, unless you feel like you can steal the 150 chips? Like I said above, I did shove with A(decent kicker) twice after folding this hand - I just wanted to know if there was anybody who saw opportunity in situations such as this (like say I had bigger stack) to pick up chips, or whether everybody agrees that to play would be more of a leak more often than not - too risky?

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun May 15, 2011 at 03:39 PM..
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 05:49 PM
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PS I didn't mention that this is PSO - maybe that wasn't obvious? Technically it shouldn't matter, but I'm not the only one that's noticed that the format obviously rewards certain behaviors that would be counterproductive in other settings, right

My VPIP in PSO is like 15-20 and most people seem to pass on opportunities to steal, right; outside of PSO my VPIP's around 25-30 (same stack sizes, same blinds levels and speed).

Last edited by TrustySam; Sun May 15, 2011 at 05:51 PM..
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 07:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I guess in posting the question I was really wanting to know more about playing from the SB out of position with mediocre cards - is this a fold 100% of the time for you then, unless you feel like you can steal the 150 chips? Like I said above, I did shove with A(decent kicker) twice after folding this hand - I just wanted to know if there was anybody who saw opportunity in situations such as this (like say I had bigger stack) to pick up chips, or whether everybody agrees that to play would be more of a leak more often than not - too risky?
Maybe if BB is a nit and doesn't have more than 10 times your stack size. If you were suited I'd say go for it. 64 off is just so terrible I need a more promising situation. The problem is you're probably being called by such a wide range that you're crushed and your small fold equity doesn't make up for it. While true that you're rarely worse than a 2 to 1 dog if called, you're getting called a ton!

Say he's calling about 70%. 30% of the time you take down the pot (which is 225 chips, not 150. Your SB is no longer yours.) and 70% of the time you're a 2 to 1 dog, ie. you win 33% and lose 67% (I don't want to deal with ties even though yeah they are pretty significant).

(.3)(225)+(.7)((.33)(910)-(.67)(685)) = -43.5 So shoving is losing play.

To make the shove break even he has to call less than x% of the time:

(1-x)(225)+(x)((.33)(910)-(.67)(685)) = 0 --> x = 58.6% of the time

So if you think he'll call less than 58.6% of the time, the shove becomes +EV. It can actually be slightly wider.

Your stack is just too small to push with enough fold equity unless you're against a nit.

With 64 suited you're actually about 38% against a 70% range, so as long as he calls less than about 75% shoving is +EV. (actually with ties I think you're good against 85% calling)

In short, if this were suited it's an easy shove. Unsuited, you can wait for a better spot. If you're facing a nit, push ATC.
 
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Sun May 15, 2011, 08:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Maybe if BB is a nit and doesn't have more than 10 times your stack size. If you were suited I'd say go for it. 64 off is just so terrible I need a more promising situation. The problem is you're probably being called by such a wide range that you're crushed and your small fold equity doesn't make up for it. While true that you're rarely worse than a 2 to 1 dog if called, you're getting called a ton!

Say he's calling about 70%. 30% of the time you take down the pot (which is 225 chips, not 150. Your SB is no longer yours.) and 70% of the time you're a 2 to 1 dog, ie. you win 33% and lose 67% (I don't want to deal with ties even though yeah they are pretty significant).

(.3)(225)+(.7)((.33)(910)-(.67)(685)) = -43.5 So shoving is losing play.

To make the shove break even he has to call less than x% of the time:

(1-x)(225)+(x)((.33)(910)-(.67)(685)) = 0 --> x = 58.6% of the time

So if you think he'll call less than 58.6% of the time, the shove becomes +EV. It can actually be slightly wider.

Your stack is just too small to push with enough fold equity unless you're against a nit.

With 64 suited you're actually about 38% against a 70% range, so as long as he calls less than about 75% shoving is +EV. (actually with ties I think you're good against 85% calling)

In short, if this were suited it's an easy shove. Unsuited, you can wait for a better spot. If you're facing a nit, push ATC.
Okay, yeah 64o's pretty awful, eh? LOL. Wasn't sure if that was maybe a leak, or a lost opportunity or something. Tough to let the sb's go uncontested, but yeah I guess it really is making the best of the situation because to do otherwise would be like throwing good money after bad sort of a deal?

Okay, thanks so much oriholic!! That was great!!!
 
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Mon May 16, 2011, 08:59 AM
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TrustySam's Avatar
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PS I'm totally convinced that stack sizes superceded other concerns, and hence this wasn't the spot for speculative play. But I guess this is what made me wonder if there are people who always play sb with ATC if the bb isn't super aggressive or anything (if stack sizes are more equal, not short-stacked):

SB vs BB #1:
2:1 disadvantage, you pay 75 chips and lose the hand = -75 chips

SB vs BB #2:
2:1 disadvantage, you pay 75 chips and lose the hand = -75 chips

SB vs BB #3:
2:1 disadvantage, you pay 75 chips and win the hand = +300 chips

Net: +150 chips?

I haven't been playing this way though - was just wondering if maybe others did
 

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