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Awkward Spot vs. TAG: AA on 3-Flush Board w/ No Redraw

 
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Awkward Spot vs. TAG: AA on 3-Flush Board w/ No Redraw - Tue May 17, 2011, 11:29 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
This is a type of spot that sometimes gets me in trouble. Strong hand, bad board, and too much money in the pot to comfortably fold, but not enough to auto-commit. Here, the spot is made a bit easier if we assume from our reads and the preflop action that the villain will never have anything besides 1) an overpair, 2) an overpair + strong flush draw, 3) just a strong flush draw, 4) a made flush, or 5) air. It's made a little more complex because I'm usually not sure in these spots exactly how weak the villain will call with pocket pair + redraw hands (Would he call with KhKx? Would he call with AxKh? What about JhJx?).

Your thoughts on this hand? It's hypothetical, and could apply to cash games or tournaments. Here, it applies to a deep-stack tournament, just for the sake of having some specificity.

75/150 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed)

SB (t8030)
BB (t7600)
UTG (t17280)
UTG+1 (t14538)
MP1 (t12910)
Hero (MP2) (t17301)
MP3 (t29428)
CO (t4846)
Button (t21644)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with
2 folds, MP1 bets t350, Hero 3bets t800, 5 folds, MP1 4bets t1975, Hero calls 1975

Flop: (t4175) (2 players)
MP1 bets t2300, Hero ???

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue May 17, 2011 at 11:32 PM..
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 05:49 AM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
A really tough spot.

The reraise preflop indicates a strong pair. The bet post flop suggests he has a heart at least in his hand but that you still hold the best hand.

My decision is normally based on my opponent read but I either shove or fold here; if he is TAG I fold, LAG I shove. There is probably a lot of complex maths to making the correct play here but it would not be my strong point. If you call and a heart hits you are virtually committed and likely beat. The villain is already pot committed I feel and is going to call if you shove, you just have to hope a heart does not hit.

TC
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 09:07 AM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with
2 folds, MP1 bets t350, Hero 3bets t800, 5 folds, MP1 4bets t1975, Hero calls 1975

Flop: (t4175) (2 players)
MP1 bets t2300, Hero ???
I saw a hand like this happen once at a cash table, and the villain had
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 11:05 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,857
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would sound to me like an overpair to the board that more than likely with a heart, or maybe AKh.

I agree with top, that at that point, it's either a shove or fold.... and that's going to be up to the reads I've got on the opp.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 01:20 PM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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First off, this flop is the perfect C-betting flop. Three low cards all hearts. Especially after the preflop action both of you are repping a range so narrow that the chances of you hitting this flop are tiny.

What flush could he have? AK hearts, AQ hearts? Would he 4-bet AQ hearts or JJ? He could have AA, KK, QQ, AK, maybe AQ or JJ. Chances of him having both hearts are low, but he may have one. I'd push putting him to a decision for all his chips. This way as long as he doesn't have a made flush or AA, you're getting the money in good. And it's a value shove as plenty of worse hands can call (any smaller over pair, especially if they have a heart). Also, if he doesn't have a heart and one comes on the turn/river, that can kill the action (or get you bluffed off, since you will have to fold).

If you were deeper you could make a small raise or just call, but at this point your stack is just 4x the pot. Unless you're against the kind of guy who will keep barreling with air, you're probably not going to get any value on further streets anyway unless you are beat. (Don't let him hit his set or flush for free!)
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:15 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I don't think that that putting the villain to a decision for all his chips will yield any equity here. He doesn't have a very hard decision. If I range the guy on AK, JJ+, then unless he has zero hearts in his hand, we're never getting our money in all that good. Flush draw + set draw = well over 40% equity to win. Which means that he should seriously consider calling with any heart, unless he puts us on the ace of hearts. If he has the ace of hearts, it's a snap-call, and if he has both the ace and the king of hearts, it's even easier to call.

Jamming the pot here is risky, because maybe half of the villain's range contains an easy call. The rest of the villain's range might actually get folded. Maybe KK or QQ with no heart will call, but I don't see this being the most profitable spot in the world regardless. And as the tournament setting relates, I don't see this as an ideal hand to stack off 84 big blinds half the time the villain decides to call.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:20 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I don't think that that putting the villain to a decision for all his chips will yield any equity here. He doesn't have a very hard decision. If I range the guy on AK, JJ+, then unless he has zero hearts in his hand, we're never getting our money in all that good. Flush draw + set draw = well over 40% equity to win. Which means that he should seriously consider calling with any heart, unless he puts us on the ace of hearts. If he has the ace of hearts, it's a snap-call, and if he has both the ace and the king of hearts, it's even easier to call.

Jamming the pot here is risky, because maybe half of the villain's range contains an easy call. The rest of the villain's range might actually get folded. Maybe KK or QQ with no heart will call, but I don't see this being the most profitable spot in the world. And as the tournament setting relates, I don't see this as an ideal hand to stack off 84 big blinds half the time the villain decides to call.
Panicky - you like the idea of a small reraise to see how the villain responds? Or just a call for pot control to see what the turn brings (cardwise, bet-wise from the villain)?
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:37 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Panicky - you like the idea of a small reraise to see how the villain responds? Or just a call for pot control to see what the turn brings (cardwise, bet-wise from the villain)?
Since the villain really shouldn't call unless they are committed, they should probably just reraise you rather than call, so by making a small reraise, you're just giving yourself an opportunity to put more chips in the pot, then fold. Making small reraises is a bit tricky when you know that one or both players involved are likely to consider themself pot-committed already.

I would definitely consider calling here. The reason is that most of the hands we're worried about right now are hands with one heart, so if no heart comes on the turn, we can ship our stack. But that comes with the problem that if a heart does come, I think we need to check it down or fold with 25% of our stack in the pot, which is pretty rough.

To address pot control, the pot is already way too big for my hand on this flop. Pot control would have been 5betting preflop. I hypothetically called the 4bet because I wanted to play a big pot in position with aces, and didn't want to risk a fold from the villain, but this is a horrible flop for aces without a heart.

In the end, I would probably be inclined to reraise all-in or fold the flop, and I would personally tend to go all-in. But like I said, this is a situation that often has me losing a whole lot of chips, so I'm not totally sure that it's correct. I don't see a whole lot wrong with folding in this spot, honestly.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Wed May 18, 2011 at 04:05 PM..
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:40 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Since the villain really shouldn't call unless they are committed, they should probably just reraise you rather than call, so by making a small reraise, you're just giving yourself an opportunity to put more chips in the pot, then fold. Making small reraises is a bit tricky when you know that one or both players involved are likely to consider themself pot-committed already.

I would definitely consider calling here. The reason is that most of the hands we're worried about right now are hands with one heart, so if no heart comes on the turn, we can ship our stack. But that comes with the problem that if a heart does come, I think we need to check/fold with 25% of our stack in the pot, which is pretty rough.

To address pot control, the pot is already way too big for my hand on this flop. Pot control would have been 5betting preflop. I hypothetically called the 4bet because I wanted to play a big ot in position with aces, and didn't want to risk a fold from the villain, but this is a horrible flop for aces without a heart.

In the end, I would probably be inclined to reraise all-in or fold the flop, and I would personally tend to go all-in. But like I said, this is a situation that often has me losing a whole lot of chips, so I'm not totally sure that it's correct. I don't see a whole lot wrong with folding in this spot, honestly.

Okay, cool - thx! Yeah the board's pretty horrible - I could see the benefits of a fold as well ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed May 18, 2011 at 04:03 PM..
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:47 PM
(#10)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
lol, you caught my post before my series of post-posting edits.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 04:04 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
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Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
lol, you caught my post before my series of post-posting edits.
Okay - fixed LOL

Still cool! LOL
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 04:42 PM
(#12)
PaidInFull6's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 342
If your confident that you have ranged your opponent correctly preflop, this is a good spot for your hand. Of all possible hands in his range we are only losing to AhKh, AhQh, those 2 hands are all were worried about. There are 10 hands that we beat or tie but have a flush draw, JhJc, JhJs, JhJd, QhQc, QhQs, Qh,Qd, KhKc, KhKs, KhKd, AhAc, personally I'm happy to get it all in against any of the pairs+flush draws (except AA of course), you'll stack him off 60% of the time, these are the kinda gambles that will help you win tournaments. You cant forget we crush a lot of hands he can hold and may be willing to get it in with, JcJs,JcJd, JsJd, QcQs, QcQd, QsQd, KcKs, KcKd, KsKd. Add in all the AK and AQ combos that didn't hit a flush draw that he will fold looks like we have a very profitable spot here.

You got 4 bet pre and your holding AA why not 5 bet?
He seems willing to play for stacks and you have the nuts, I would made that 6k and hope he shoves.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 11:02 PM
(#13)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
You got 4 bet pre and your holding AA why not 5 bet?
He seems willing to play for stacks and you have the nuts, I would made that 6k and hope he shoves.
People can 4bet/fold. I don't assume that people will always get it in after they 4bet preflop. And if this guy would call with any weaker than kings with no heart, then I think snap-shoving is good. But I think that calling a 3-bet all-in with JJ and no heart is pretty awful, so I would never expect the guy to do it (if he's a TAG with any kind of skill).

5betting preflop would be a pretty good solution here, though.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 11:13 PM
(#14)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Forgot to add. If he has any sort of draw, his leading at the flop for smaller than a shove is pretty bad. And with the stack sizes this way, open-shoving is pretty bad too. If he bets and you shove he is forced to either lay down his strong draw or call it off as an underdog to win. Both spots suck. He should be checking, planning to either check-raise all in if you bet or take the free card if you check behind.

His bet should be polarized between air (I'll include hands like JJ and QQ...they're just bluffs at this point) and made flushes. That way he has an easy fold/call if you raise. But is he actually playing that way?

If he has a pair and a flush draw, yeah he has good equity against you...but does he know you don't have the ace or king of hearts? Clearly if he has either of those he does, and his flush draw is probably good...but if he has QQ with a heart, now what does he do? You could have KK, AA, AK (with zero, one or two hearts). You could also have JJ with a heart. So he's ahead of JJ and AK, but behind AA, KK, AK hearts. But any AK with a heart has killed his flush draw and has pair outs. He's only 40/60 against that range.

Also remember, if he calls you with a hand like QxQh, you got your money in as a fairly strong favorite! Why would you want to pass up an edge like this? Yeah, sometimes he'll have AK hearts, or AA with the freeroll, but most of the time you're ahead and it's better to get the money in before a bad card or scare card comes off (an ace or a 4th heart could kill your action unless you're beat). There's no way he's calling with KK if a scare card hits the turn.

Short answer, your hand is almost always best on this flop. Get it in now.

PaidInFull, the problem with always 5-betting AA pre is that it narrows your range down to KK, AA, and maybe air. AK, JJ, QQ, and random air probably won't call, but they might put their money in postflop. Let him think his KK/QQ is ahead. You could have 77-JJ, or AK or AQs in position. I'm not saying you should always or even usually just call here. Just saying it's not a 5-bet 100% of the time. A tight player will fold a lot of hands you could otherwise gain value from or even play fit/fold on the flop needing a set to continue instead of thinking that their QQ is good on a 38J board.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 11:45 PM
(#15)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Forgot to add. If he has any sort of draw, his leading at the flop for smaller than a shove is pretty bad.
Really? He was the preflop super-aggressor. Checking will only get me to check behind, thus giving him a free card, but also giving him an auto-fold on the turn if no heart comes. I think his best bet is to bet the flop, but if he jams it, I'll just assume he's on a draw and call. So a regular c-bet isn't all that bad here.

I guess against this type of opponent in the situation I've specified, going with the hand is probably fine. Raising might be the best thing to do, but I think that given how I'm only a 58ish% favourite against the worst hand he'd call with, the volatility of the scenario makes this a horrible spot to begin with (in a tournament situation), which means that I should have either 3bet bigger preflop, or 5bet all-in preflop.

In a cash game, it looks like an easier hand to go with, since you don't need to worry about losing your stack.
 
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Thu May 19, 2011, 12:28 PM
(#16)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I think his best bet is to bet the flop, but if he jams it, I'll just assume he's on a draw and call.
I thought that was interesting, the villain's cbet rather than the jam. And the fact that it was sized at half the size of the pot - is that roughly what it was at? That's not super aggressive - like chances are they find the flop just as awkward and are just as confused about where they stand I guess?

The reason I was drawn to the idea of just calling the c-bet on the flop is because I've done the shove thing before and had it go both ways - when you win all those chips, it's awesome! But when you go from having a good-sized stack to being short-stacked, it can be such a massive bummer Here's what the chip stacks would look like with an all-in:

1. Everybody goes all-in on the flop:

All-in that wins:
Hero: about 30,000
Villain: out

All-in that loses:
Hero: about 4,500
Villain: about 26,000


So lately, I've exploring the alternative of moderation - just to see what that's like. Probably I wouldn't fold this flop, but that alternative was mentioned and the outcome chip-wise would be:

2. Hero folds:

Fold the c-bet on the flop:
Hero: about 15,000
Villain: about 17,300


Or there's that third alternative that was mentioned of just calling the flop - the chip stacks for that would be:

3. Hero calls - and the turn basically decides it:

Call the c-bet on the flop, turn basically decides it in favor of the Hero:
Hero: about 22,000
Villain: about 8,000

Call the c-bet on the flop, turn basically decides it in favor of the Villain:
Hero: about 13,000
Villain: about 18,000

4. Hero calls - and the turn decides nothing ... outcome ??


I've also tried just calling on the flop before and had the villain shove on the turn, so then all the chips wind up in the middle anyways. But I suppose if there's a chance the villian doesn't do that for whatever reason (and maybe that's not very likely), then maybe there's possibly a whole range of possible outcomes rather than just 30,000 or 4,500?

The range I guess could possibly be anywhere from:
4,500 (big loss)
13,000 (small loss)
15,000 (fold)
22,000 (small win)
30,000 (big win)?

Maybe it's most profitable to shove all the time and win/lose over the long-haul in terms of profitability though (like JD made the case for in his thread?). Not saying I'd necessarily do anything other than shove - just exploring the possibility that there might be alternatives I guess. You think there's any benefit to moderation or are we always just wanting to take that risk?

Last edited by TrustySam; Thu May 19, 2011 at 12:37 PM..
 
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Thu May 19, 2011, 02:00 PM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Personally I like 5 betting in this spot. The majority of players are not 4b bluffing here, and they're certainly not 4b/folding KK/QQ so that's no concern. Vs. the bluffers though the stacks are deep enough that we can 5b small and perhaps induce a spaz as it may look like we leave ourselves room to fold. a min raise would be 3150 to go, I don't like that so much as the click back looks super strong, but we can make it something like 3900-4200 range and if he jams for 12900 it's large enough that (IN HIS EYES) we can fold and we still have a 13K stack ourselves in that event. Obviously we know we're never folding pre but HE doesn't know that and it looks like we have room to.

At any rate, when we flat the SPR is 2.6, I'm quite comfortable committing here. Assuming he's got a tight 4B range which is the most common, I'd give him something like JJ+ and AK (most villains are NOT 4betting AQs which would be really terrible). Against that range our equity is 67.5% on this flop (and I ran that with him ONLY leading AK combos that contain at least 1 heart, when in reality he will also be c-betting AK hands with no hearts which makes our equity even better).

Board: 2h 5h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.456% 65.20% 02.25% 15492 535.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 32.544% 30.29% 02.25% 7197 535.50 { JJ+, AhKh, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh }

So I'm definitely in the camp of getting it in right now.

Dave
 

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