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calling supposed coin flip on an MTT

 
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calling supposed coin flip on an MTT - Wed May 18, 2011, 01:29 AM
(#1)
gonchi1207's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 17
This is a question that i asked myself from time to time and i always change my mind, about what is the right move to make. My question is whether is correct to call an all in preflop when u are pretty sure it is a coin flip. Maybe the rightness about the play varies for different stack sizes. For example being shortstacked its a call and bigstack i think its a call too.. But what about when you are middlestacked like me in this example. Is it right to call the all in even if it cripples your stack by this i mean if u lose u have very few chips so it is almost the same as direct elimination ?. Or should i wait for a more suitable situation to fully push?
The thing that makes me doubt about how to play this hand its the fact that im playing it at a tournament, and not at a cash table. At a cash table the equity is directly proportional to the chips your risking, so you can weigh pretty fast and mathematically which was the correct play. But when you are tournament playing making all ins is not that cute, since winning the pot does not guarantees you winning the tournament or even cashing, and losing the all in means youre directly eliminated.
Take this hand for example:
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

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EDIT
I dont know why it says no data found.. i reuploaded the hand 3 times and nothing... i add the text of the hand in code until i can get this work...
Quote:
PokerStars Game #62242479263: Tournament #395705533, $0.23+$0.02 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2011/05/18 0:28:18 ET
Table '395705533 3' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: cuni210602 (1670 in chips)
Seat 2: ShARkiE1975 (1600 in chips)
Seat 3: chitip (130 in chips)
Seat 4: gonchi1207 (2695 in chips)
Seat 5: Vladimir743 (1235 in chips)
Seat 6: CRONOS1956 (1440 in chips)
Seat 7: sabenno26 (2060 in chips)
Seat 8: falan29 (2650 in chips)
CRONOS1956: posts small blind 15
sabenno26: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gonchi1207 [Tc Th]
falan29: calls 30
cuni210602: folds
ShARkiE1975: folds
chitip: folds
gonchi1207: raises 90 to 120
Vladimir743: folds
CRONOS1956: raises 1320 to 1440 and is all-in
sabenno26: folds
falan29: folds
gonchi1207: calls 1320
*** FLOP *** [Kd Kh 5h]
*** TURN *** [Kd Kh 5h] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [Kd Kh 5h Jc] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CRONOS1956: shows [Kc Ad] (three of a kind, Kings)
gonchi1207: shows [Tc Th] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
CRONOS1956 collected 2940 from pot
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Here i raise 4BB, and then i got a reraise all in. Here im way ahead ( if my opp is holding 10-anything, lower pp, highcard-lowcard) way behind ( if hes holding a higher pp) or a flip - though slightly better for me - ( if hes holding two higher cards )... also ace-small makes me a 2-1 favourite.. but when i was thinking about whether i should call or not i was pretty sure that he was holding A-J or A-Q or A-K.. and i was right about that !
The reason i called is because there was already money on the pot, my 120 and some blinds, so if i was slightly a favourite (50-57%) and i was having slightly better odds than 1-1 so in a cash table its a winning move....

But what about this tournament? should i have folded? and wait for a monster? QQ-KK-AA-AKs??

And a more general question, when playing sngs how should i weigh wether an all in move is profitable or not? taken into account the difference between tournament and cash... This difference has something to do with the Independent Chip Model i read somewhere???



Sorry for making such a long post, I really appreciate the willingness to help and sorry if im asking very basic stuff.
Thanks very much,

Last edited by gonchi1207; Wed May 18, 2011 at 01:37 AM..
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:57 AM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Do you think he's pushing any smaller pairs than your 10s? Would he *not* push JJ+ and only AJ-AK? If he's pushing hands like 77+ AJ+, there might be reason to call. Run his range against your hand in an equity calculator like Pokerstove or http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Oddscalc. See how you stack up. The thing is, with the blinds so low, he shouldn't be pushing any of that.

Maybe his range is QQ+, AK. You're way behind that range. Yes, you're flipping against this particular hand, but you are not flipping with that range.

Honestly I would fold my tens. Just not worth it at this stage. You may [and should] be far worse than flipping. Let him take the 195 chips. Yeah, maybe you're the necessary 45% against his range, but with 90 BBs, you can find a better spot....or if you think you're better than 45% against his range you can gamble and try to get a big stack right here right now, and use it to dominate your table.

If he shoves all in and shows you AK, then this is a call of course. But you don't know that he has AK here. He could have worse, he could have better. Same goes for cash. This is NOT a call unless you think you have better than 45% equity against his range.

Consider limping 10s preflop with the blinds so small. Try to win a big pot postflop, or get out cheaply.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 09:18 AM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by gonchi1207 View Post
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EDIT
I really like your editing - how cool is that?

PS I had a similar situation ... what I thought was AK turned out to be 88 ... oops!
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 12:41 PM
(#4)
gonchi1207's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
I really like your editing - how cool is that?

PS I had a similar situation ... what I thought was AK turned out to be 88 ... oops!
haha yes its pretty cool... i tried to make it look neat but i guess the colours werent necessary for that xDDD
Quote:
Do you think he's pushing any smaller pairs than your 10s? Would he *not* push JJ+ and only AJ-AK? If he's pushing hands like 77+ AJ+, there might be reason to call. Run his range against your hand in an equity calculator like Pokerstove or http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Oddscalc. See how you stack up. The thing is, with the blinds so low, he shouldn't be pushing any of that.

Maybe his range is QQ+, AK. You're way behind that range. Yes, you're flipping against this particular hand, but you are not flipping with that range.

Honestly I would fold my tens. Just not worth it at this stage. You may [and should] be far worse than flipping. Let him take the 195 chips. Yeah, maybe you're the necessary 45% against his range, but with 90 BBs, you can find a better spot....or if you think you're better than 45% against his range you can gamble and try to get a big stack right here right now, and use it to dominate your table.

If he shoves all in and shows you AK, then this is a call of course. But you don't know that he has AK here. He could have worse, he could have better. Same goes for cash. This is NOT a call unless you think you have better than 45% equity against his range.

Consider limping 10s preflop with the blinds so small. Try to win a big pot postflop, or get out cheaply.

Read more: PokerSchoolOnline Forum - Reply to Topic http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...#ixzz1MipRagPl
I understand what you are saying i know i didnt know for sure his holdings, but its always the same, people love to push aces, so almost 75% of the times it would be a coin flip A-J,A-Q,A-K... or a 2-1 if they have A-small, then of course he could have big pairs and he would be pushing with that... but his range also included 99 through 77 so its about the same thing there...
NOTE: I checked the hands i had about him in my holdem manager database and he has 38 VPIP and 0 PFR and a sample hand size of 38 hands.. note that i dont like to play tourneys with huds..
having had this information its more of a clear fold??..


Also my main question is unanswered ill try to make an hypopethical example. Suppose youre playing this hand at a live table, and when the dealer deals the AK to your opponent you somehow are able to see the cards, so you know for sure hes holding AK. then the hand is played the same way. Is it correct to call the all in knowing he has AK and you 10-10? Im not sure about this because i dont know if the slightly better odds that you have because of the blinds and the holdings compensate the fact that if you lose your crippled, and , unlike a cash table you dont seek building a large pot, you seek winning the tournament and you have to stay alive in order to do that.. Of course in order to win you need to go up in chips but maybe its better to wait for a 2-1 odds or higher if your putting youre putting your tournament life on the line.




Thanks again and sorry for my bad english :$

 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 03:56 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
38 hands is a largely irrelevant sample size, it's just too small, but if he's ultra passive preflop and is 3b jamming suddenly I'd think his range is weighted towards stronger hands and this is a fold (for example, you thought he'd have 77-99 in his range too but someone who plays roughly 38/0 is not 3b jamming 77 here ever, they're flatting it).

In terms of your general question, TT is a 57-43 favorite over AKo, that's a really big edge to be passing. Unless the stacks were deaper and the structure super slow, I wouldn't pass this kind of edge. In a faster mtt structure it's a snap call, as the general excuse for passing it of "wait for a better spot" doesn't even have time to manifest in a fast structure.
 
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Wed May 18, 2011, 05:43 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Yes it's a call, don't pass up known small edges early in a tournament. Most of the time a flip is just your best case scenario, because this early on people shouldn't be pushing that wide.

But if you can see his cards and you know you're ahead, especially with all that dead money in the pot you have to call. Don't be afraid of busting early. Early on is the best time to take a known "flip" (you actually have a pretty big edge with such a big pair). You have only dedicated your buy-in and a short amount of time to the tournament. A double up doesn't double your chances of winning the tournament.... but it sure helps! By doubling your stack early you can absorb some blows that would cripple/bust you if you have a smaller stack. You can also afford to play a lot of speculative hands or play tight for a while and still have more chips than the rest of your table.

If you fold how long can you wait for "a better spot" before you're insignificant in this tournament? More chips means more power and more tools. You don't want to pass up small +EV edges early on. And you really don't want to pass up big ones!

Oh looks like Dave responded before i finished typing this....Yeah, what he said.
 
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Fri May 20, 2011, 01:38 AM
(#7)
gonchi1207's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 17
thanks a lot for both answers, now im happy i did the right thing. thanks a lot guys


had this been at the bubble , its also a call ? what about after the bubble ?.
 

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