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Analysis please

 
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Analysis please - Fri May 20, 2011, 12:15 PM
(#1)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
GOYL freeroll with everyone playing loose/agressive

 
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Fri May 20, 2011, 01:56 PM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Loose aggressive or loose terrible? You could have gotten away with a much bigger raise preflop. Like 200...or honestly some donkey is probably calling if you shove.

When the flop goes 6 ways you have to be very careful. Hijack's small bet usually means either he is trying a super cheap steal if no one has anything at all/betting a weak draw/he has a set and is making a tiny bet to maximize the chance that someone pays him off even a little. Your raise here is totally appropriate (though still tiny compared to the pot) as it should be able to squeeze out a lot of weak draws and reopen the betting to the hijack. When he min-reraises, your alarm bells should be going off. You saw a flop multiway with aces and didn't improve. There aren't a ton of draws out there (flush draw is all) so he is going to have a set here a lot of the time. I think his range consists mostly of sets, flush draws and maybe overplayed 8x. You might call and take a pot control line. Remember you only have one pair. If a third spade comes you know you're beat as his entire range has you crushed. I don't think he'd ever play any other overpair this way. Postflop yes, but preflop he would have raised or at least back-raised with TT-KK for sure. I'd probably just call down as long as he keeps the bets small. As long as a third spade doesn't come I think you have odds to call down because he can have 8x, but I wouldn't raise. If you see the turn is an 8, you have an easy fold/check behind. Now the only thing you're beating is a flush draw.
 
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Fri May 20, 2011, 05:32 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Raise bigger pre-flop, to at least 140 to 200.

Raise more on the flop to "define" your hand on the flop.
Your min raise should only be done if you intend to FOLD to a shove, and preserve your stack.

Holding the major over-pair to the board means yes, you CAN be beat here, but you are more likely to be facing draws or lesser over pairs.
This means if you intend to raise the flop opener at all, you should seek to make your decision as easy as possible if he 3bets.
Your min raise is to an amount just under 20% of your start stack, and makes that decision very tough.
Either raise MORE, and make your 4bet committment easier, FLAT his bet to control the pot (kind of weak tbh), or let it go when he shoves over your min raise, and the caller.
 
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Sat May 21, 2011, 04:24 AM
(#4)
nanonoko's Avatar
nanonoko
(nanonoko)
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 350
Supernova
I would raise it a lot larger preflop and maybe even bigger if it's a freeroll since people should be playing a lot looser due to that. You want to get in as much money as you can preflop while still having a caller or two. Your hand is very strong preflop but if you have to go 6 way or more to the flop, then your hand really isn't that strong anymore since many people will have the chance to suck out on you now by the river. So the key is to make it big preflop to reduce the number of callers as well as trying to get in as much money as you can while having very good equity. On the flop, when that guy bets the minimum, I would have raised the flop a lot larger than you did to knock all of the other players out of the pot to maximize your chances of winning.
 
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Sat May 21, 2011, 01:24 PM
(#5)
havocofsmeg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 489
As ever, thanks for the input guys.
 
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Sat May 21, 2011, 02:06 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
I agree, raise preflop is too small, and raise on the flop is way too small. Your flop bet sizing is giving draws a favorable price and failing to get you value from these players who are going to give it on draws and weak 1 pair hands.
 

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