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A9 shove

 
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A9 shove - Sat Jun 04, 2011, 03:34 AM
(#1)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 03:39 AM
(#2)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
My reasoning to the above video.

Wsg86 has raised 2 hands in a row and this is his third. He attempts to steal 46% of the time. I'm putting him on a low - mid pair, low broadway cards- KT, QT. Knowing that if I was to shove he would call, I figure at worst its a coin flip and I can try to double up now. Should I have shoved this, like I did, or folded it- even though i had a good read on him?
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 04:02 AM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
As the German wanker that would not go out to play yesterday because of rain and because the juniors are playing this morning on our normal course and I refuse to drive 100 km to play golf even though i am not driving....all I would say is position.

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Sat Jun 04, 2011 at 04:06 AM..
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 04:15 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
I'm putting him on a low - mid pair, low broadway cards- KT, QT.
I think that you are rationalizing your reshove by thinking of hands you can beat, and then assuming that they are the entirety of your opponent's range. You're making excuses for why you should reshove in lieu of actually putting the villain on a legitimate range. Any range that includes broadway cards and small pairs will also include premium pairs and better aces; don't cost yourself money by assuming that someone with a wide range never has a good hand.

To really determine whether your play was good or bad, figure out what the guy's opening range is, figure out what his calling range is, calculate your fold equity, calculate your pot equity, add your fold equity to your pot equity, and you'll have the answer to your question. I can't give you a definitive answer, although I can tell you that given the stats you've shared, it does sound to me as though your shove was good.
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 04:38 AM
(#5)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
thanks, but what I ment to say was that generally his range of shoving is pairs, and broadways cards. But since he had two premium hands in a row- he showed- my guess was that he had something good enough to shove but not a premium hand, I mean what r the odds of that. So narrowing his range a little, I put him on low- mid pair, low broadways- KT, QT, we can even add KJ, KQ, QJ. I would still have 60% with this broadways range.

Last edited by andrei17731; Sat Jun 04, 2011 at 05:01 AM..
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 05:24 AM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
The assumption that past dealings have any impact on the cards your opponent now holds is a bad assumption. The chances of someone being dealt AA after being dealt AA for the past two hands are exactly the same as that person being dealt AA if the past two hands they were dealt were not AA.

You cannot eliminate monster hands from a villain's range because he had many monster hands in the past few dealings.
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 05:51 AM
(#7)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
oh, well that sucks, k, thanks .
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 05:54 AM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
No problem. Congrats on the SilverStar.
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 07:07 AM
(#9)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
oh yeah, thanks, had to play so many tournaments, crazy.
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 11:36 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
You cannot eliminate monster hands from a villain's range because he had many monster hands in the past few dealings.
100% correct Panicky. Since the cards are shuffled after every hand, each hand has the exact same odds.... regardless of previous cards (law of independant trials). What anyone had previously is irrelevant with regards to the odds of a particular hand being dealt.

Just like flipping a coin... if it comes up heads 5 times in a row... the odds of it coming up heads the next time is 50-50.
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 11:37 AM
(#11)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
(Super-Moderator)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Congrats on the SilverStar.
I'll 2nd that. Congrats Andrei!
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 11:41 AM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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that early in a tourney, raising to 3BB (assuming the opponent has a clue), will normally mean a pair, big A or suited connectors (normally big suited connectors). With A9 not being suited and since you can't make a straight from A9, it should be a muck preflop..... since you're behind almost all of the hands that your opponent will be making that bet with.

That's one where you need to let the chips you had in the BB go and find a better spot to get your chips into (one where you know you're ahead). Playing non suited A's that can't also make a broadway straight will get you in trouble alot more often than you'll come out ahead.
 
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Sat Jun 04, 2011, 10:31 PM
(#13)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I would call preflop and shove the flop. You have too much in the pot to fold willingly with ace high against a button raise. By waiting until the flop to shove you can make him fold so many things that are ahead or could catch up.
 

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