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Laying down AA as an overpair

 
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Laying down AA as an overpair - Mon Jun 06, 2011, 04:54 AM
(#1)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
Hi all,

Situation from today. New to table no info on anyone yet.

Pocket A's (JOY!)

1 limper in early pos, me directly behind in mid pos. I raise to 4x BB, CO calls.

flop brings 2 to a flush and possible straight draw AA is now overpair.

limper checks, I lead out for a tad under 2/3 of pot. CO folds. Limper decides to C/R all in.

I end up putting on the time bank and thinking for a good while, in the end my caution gets the better of me and I lay the AA's down.

After the fact I think through possible holdings, The most likely I think is 55 or 88, which would explain the limp early. I think some more and add QQ, JJ and perhaps T9h, MAYBE KK played slow.

Could he be shoving with AJ? Surely not? Is he capable of that move with complete nothing? I don't know.

In any case I put the above range into pokerstove and low and behold it turns out on that flop I was 57:43 favourite. However its also worth noting if I eliminate the KK & QQ from the range those odds change to 16:83 dog.

So two questions, do people agree/disagree with the hands I'm putting him on, and if so should I have called it?

Thanks



PS: a few hands later same villain was wiling to stack off again holding 66 on a T 3 4 flop after he raised , I re-raise, he 4 bets and I call pre flop (I have AQh). Alas this time I called and lost. This makes me think perhaps he pushed me off my AA in the above hand.

Last edited by OMGCBF; Mon Jun 06, 2011 at 05:04 AM..
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 06:19 AM
(#2)
nerfmacestun's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 18
BronzeStar
I think you are good there... bad fold

Because if hes good, why would he want to push you off hands which could follow him to the river?

ie over pairs 2 pairs etc, i think he would try and milk his set for value, that shove just smells of a draw. Or he has top pair which is not as strong as a set obv and thinks you might on a draw and trying to get you off. With a set he might be will to risk the draws out there to slow play and get value from you.


I think you are good most of the time... unless he wants you to put him on a draw and this call - but I think this is the minority of the time not the majority.

So yeah i think a call was good there. Any info on the guy?
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 06:38 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
People who limp tend not to have a stock limping range. So it's +EV to watch for limping ranges in specific players. Sure, some players will limp with 55 and have hit a set, but some players will also limp here with any two suited cards and be checkraising a flush draw. There are 9 ways your opponent could have a set here, 13 ways they can have an overpair, and 27 ways they could have two pair. There are 90 ways they could have a flush draw.

That means, there are 102 hands in our preliminary assumption of their range that you beat (flush draws, 62% equity; and overpairs, 91% equity), and only 36 that you lose to (sets, 13% equity; and two pair, 29% equity). Your overall equity against their range is about 51%. So far, calling the shove looks good to me.

We could make some educated read-based guesses and narrow down their range (e.g. we could take out most combinations of overpairs to reflect that the villain won't always limp/call pocket QQ, KK, and AA; we could take out the least likely two pair combos if the villain had a tight VPIP; etc.). Short of that info, though, I'll end my analysis here.

I'll summarize by saying that although there are many, many, many cases where folding an overpair on the flop is the correct play, this was not one of them. For me, it's one of those spots that's kind of vague in game, but when you do the math, it becomes pretty obvious that it was a call. Hope this helps!
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 07:43 AM
(#4)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
Yeah on thinking about it more PP I really think it stinks of draw too.

I really knew there was something wrong with my thinking there but couldn't get past the fear of a set.

It also came back to haunt me too because when he pulled the same move about 4-5 hands later he managed to get my whole stack when I made a bad call with only 2 overs on board. he was shoving with pocket 6's and nothing but a back door draw. (Of course in hindsight with the pre flop action it was fairly obvious I should have some big cards so the flop most likely didn't hit me) i think I'll amend my note on him to say likes to shove mediocre and drawing hands, and learn from this lesson.

I should give way more credit to the aggressively played draw on a board like that. I guess its all Just part of learning what I need to to improve
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 07:54 AM
(#5)
OMGCBF's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 48
BTW I can't express how much benefit I get out of these hand history reviews.

They're incredibly useful, so thanks to all the contributors and BIG thanks to the reviewers.
 
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?? - Mon Jun 06, 2011, 08:11 AM
(#6)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
In any hand that we open- for a raise- we must have a plan- in this case the plan is- how do i get all the money in- well he did it 4 you- if he on a draw and hits so be it- if he has a set hes not shuvving there for value- auto call on that board-- i find that trying to put a player on a specific hand- rather than a range of hands- leads to poor decisions-- on my part-- gl- monk...
ps. you are holding the blocker to the nut flush also-
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 08:20 AM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
@monk - I don't think anyone who's limp/calling OOP preflop has high enough standards to draw to only the nut flush.

@OMG - I really enjoy reading hands posted here and giving my thoughts on them. I think it helps my game a great deal.

 
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?? - Mon Jun 06, 2011, 08:27 AM
(#8)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
yes PP - i understand that- but- imo- might as well fold AA preflop- if you gonna fold on that board- and if you gonna fold AA preflop- why play poker?? i have never heard of set mining with aces-!

Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Mon Jun 06, 2011 at 08:30 AM..
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 08:40 AM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
One pair hands fare poorly against checkraises. If this had been a rainbow board, I believe this would have been a fold.
 
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?? - Mon Jun 06, 2011, 08:53 AM
(#10)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
One pair hands fare poorly against checkraises. If this had been a rainbow board, I believe this would have been a fold.
Im curious- how you can fold there- especially if its a rainbow board- why is he shuving- not for value- and hero has 2 card to come- backdoor flush is there- another ace for top set--- i think meta-game thinking is over rated at these stakes- imo- villain is most likely drawing- and im happy to get it in- but thats just me--

Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Mon Jun 06, 2011 at 09:08 AM..
 
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Mon Jun 06, 2011, 10:34 AM
(#11)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Yes, the opponent could have 55 or 88 or even JJ... but that betting line make it look to me like they have hearts, AJ, or 2 overcards. A set should want to keep you around and get as much value out of you as possible.
If they have a set, they also really shouldn't want to stack-off with the two hearts on the board, since they can easily be drawn out on.

I'd have called it with AA (especially with the A of hearts, because it knocks the nut flush draw out of their range). Yes, sometimes they will have a set... but in the long run, you'll come out ahead if they continue to do that.
 

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