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Mercier vs Koskas - Great Hand #7

Mercier vs Koskas - Great Hand #7 - Tue Jun 07, 2011, 05:38 PM
PSO Admin's Avatar
Since: May 2010
Posts: 301
EPT 4 San Remo - Mercier vs Koskas.

Watch video here.

Would you have acted the same way? What would you have done differently? Share your thoughts and feedback via this forum discussion about this hand.


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Tue Jun 07, 2011, 07:30 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
that's an interesting one. Bluff vs bluff preflop and one hits bottom pair.

If I were Koskas, if you're going to bluff at it, why not push preflop?

Great call by Mercier... he had to have picked up a really good read on him. If I were Mercier, I'd have probably put in some sort of flop bet though, to see where I was at.
Tue Jun 07, 2011, 07:42 PM
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
I've seen that one before! To get help with my hand-reading, I did a search in youtube for 'great call', 'great fold', 'great laydown', 'great read', etc. and this clip came up.

You know what's interesting though, is that Daniel Negreanu's a got a lot of clips in every category. But all the really loose, aggressive type players don't have clips for 'great fold' - Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan, Jason. Why do you think that is - is it because in marginal situations, rather than keep the decision up to them, they reraise and push the decision onto the other person? Stuff like that?

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 07:49 PM..
Wed Jun 08, 2011, 12:43 AM
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
If I were Mercier, I'd have probably put in some sort of flop bet though, to see where I was at.
But Koskas makes that goofy dark check. Effectively this gives him position after the flop as Mercier is first to act after seeing the flop. Rather than cede position and face a check-raise with a hand that can very easily be ahead but can't call a check-raise, Mercier checks behind, keeping the pot small. I like this play a lot. Koskas overbets the pot on the turn setting himself up for a pot-sized river shove if called. I would think he's pretty polarized here. Can't see an 8 making a bet like this unless it's J8 or 88 or 78 for the pair + straight draw. There are a ton of draws he could have too. River is another 8, and an insta-shove. Now 88 is super unlikely, as he'd have quads. Again, I don't think he's value-shoving a wide range here. He's either got a monster hand like J8, 88, JJ, 87 or air. All the draws missed, so he has a ton of air in his range. Plus he committed himself on the turn. If he had a decent made hand, he could check hoping for a cheap showdown and still have 700k in chips. If he has nothing though, he has to bet if he thinks he can make Jason fold. Jason's getting about 2 to 1 on a call against a range that is extremely polarized and has tonssss of air. He only has to be right 1/3 of the time for this to be a +cEV call, and he easily is. He could call with ace-high here pretty easily too.

I'm not sure just how +$EV it is to call here though. If he's wrong he surely loses tons of prize pool equity. If he's playing to win it's an easy call. But with ICM he'd have to be significantly better than 1/3 to win for this to be +$EV. Wish I knew the stack sizes of everyone. Still, even if he needs to be right 50% of the time, Koskas has a ridiculous amount of air in his range, more than 50% for sure. Yes, sometimes he'll look silly and Koskas will have jacks full or quad 8s here, but this is an excellent call.

Also, Jason Mercier is really really really good. Definitely one of the best tournament players around today.
Wed Jun 29, 2011, 11:44 AM
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Wish I knew the stack sizes of everyone.
jason's call on the river is a little more than 1/4th of his remaining stack.

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