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A good spot to bluff?

 
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A good spot to bluff? - Thu Jun 09, 2011, 02:23 PM
(#1)
Swaxwell's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 315
[Sorry about the text, couldn’t get the hand replayer to load without showing the results]

This is from a skill league tourney. I shouldn’t have really been playing in this as I was too tired, and slightly tilting from the previous tourney where I went out early shoving kings into aces. With 10bigs it’s time to shove or fold (although not necessarily in a skill league, further adding to my indecision). I had the raise bar set to shove, then flirted with the fold button before panicking and limping. Fishy I know. After more callers I thought that I would just get away unless I hit big.

Then this flop came and I thought it was a great spot to bluff. There are plenty of chips in the middle and this flop looks scary but will miss most people. My stack is still big enough to induce folds and I have two overs, so I thought I would take a stab at it. But then again I was out of position and against multiple opponents. And the limped pot widens people’s ranges to include hands that might love this flop. So was this a good spot to bluff?

What if I had a larger stack and had raised pre with one or two callers? Would it be a good spot to take a stab and shut down to any more action?


PokerStars Game #63120706689: Tournament #397948367, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2011/06/09 1:39:56 WET [2011/06/08 20:39:56 ET]
Table '397948367 21' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: tiggastripe (2380 in chips)
Seat 2: Hells45 (1445 in chips)
Seat 3: fgm1955 (490 in chips)
Seat 4: Stacks616 (2615 in chips)
Seat 5: Maxvue (3240 in chips)
Seat 6: oneshot244 (690 in chips)
Seat 7: Swaxwell (1010 in chips)
Seat 8: Dreams78 (1890 in chips)
Seat 9: koolas (1240 in chips)
Hells45: posts small blind 50
fgm1955: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Swaxwell [Ad Qc]
Stacks616: calls 100
Hells45 said, "10 k"
Maxvue: calls 100
oneshot244: folds
Swaxwell: calls 100
Dreams78: folds
koolas: folds
tiggastripe: calls 100
Hells45: calls 50
fgm1955: checks
*** FLOP *** [6s 5c 6c]
Hells45: checks
fgm1955: bets 100
Stacks616: folds
Maxvue: calls 100
Swaxwell: raises 810 to 910 and is all-in
tiggastripe: folds
Hells45: raises 435 to 1345 and is all-in
fgm1955 has timed out while being disconnected
fgm1955: folds
fgm1955 is sitting out
Maxvue: folds
Uncalled bet (435) returned to Hells45
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 02:34 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Good spot to bluff? No, imo, for a few reasons:

1) Freerolls and fold equity do not go hand-in-hand (i.e. it's hard to bluff in the League)

2) You're bluffing in a multi-way pot

3) You're bluffing with a bet and and call in front of you (!!!)

4) You're bluffing for your whole stack (this isn't bad, necessarily; I just think that shoving all-in is always the easy response, and seldom do people put much thought behind exactly why they're doing it, and whether it's likely to work)

The correct play would have been shoving preflop, so debating the correct flop action is a moot point.
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 02:51 PM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Super standard shove pre. Bad flop to bluff. This flop hits limpy hands pretty decently. It's not as crazy as an 899 with two of a suit, but still, not a great one for bluffing.

Quote:
3) You're bluffing with a bet and and call in front of you (!!!)
Squeeze play! Honestly, with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw (unfortunately not with the ace) you still have decent equity if called. Not thrilled with it on the paired board though, as you could totally be drawing dead. If the board wasn't paired, and you had AQ suited though, I think this would be the perfect play as long as you think you have some fold equity. Two overs + nut flush draw is almost a coinflip against top pair or overpair.

Quote:
Freerolls and fold equity do not go hand-in-hand (i.e. it's hard to bluff in the League)
There are sooooo many nits in the league. Super easy to bluff them most of the time.
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 03:53 PM
(#4)
Swaxwell's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 315
Thanks for the feedback guys. And I agree, in hindsight this should definitely have been a shove pre. However I dithered and ended up in this somewhat tricky spot.

Oriholic, I’m not sure I fully understand your response. You say it is a bad spot to bluff but then expand on the reasons why I actually did bluff. I definitely had fold equity here. Even from the micro-stack, who eventually did fold, albeit to a shove and a re-shove. But I know he is the type of player who is happy to blind down. And the subsequent call smacks of “I have a weak draw but am happy to see a cheap turn card”. Does he really want to call off nearly 1/3 of his chips on a weak draw? I doubt it. So a great squeeze spot right?

But then again I do still have two players to act behind me, so not ideal. And one of them re-shoves with the hand that I am basically repping. He has trips. But if nobody has trips, which is quite likely I think, then I think I have good fold equity over a lot of draws and some over pairs. Also I have outs if called by draws or over pairs. So I am still not sure if I made a good or bad play post flop (I know I made a bad play pre flop)

Also @ Panicky, yes I bluffed my whole stack, and this might seem the easy way out, but surely I couldn’t have raised/folded with my stack size as it was right? So might as well just shove.
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 03:54 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
since it's a league game..... the problem with the bluff is that if you get called and beat, you're getting pretty large negative league points at that blind level. Seeing how it's a multiway pot, I'd be looking to get out of the hand if someone bets, as you don't have a made hand and someone can easily have trips or 2 pair or pkt pair or AK and be ahead. It's also still pretty early in the tourney, so with that many limping into the pot, their ranges are basically ATC.

If it was past the + points point of the tourney, then if you think the table's playing really tight, then you can try it... but you need to get to the + tourney points mark first.

If it was a regular MTT, I'd be raising preflop, if not shoving with AQ.
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 04:27 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaxwell View Post
Does he really want to call off nearly 1/3 of his chips on a weak draw? I doubt it. So a great squeeze spot right?
My point regarding bluffing in a multi-way pot is that, even if one player won't call, you'll frequently find one who will. More often than not, that player will have you beat.

Regarding the idea that this might be a good spot to squeeze, my understanding of the squeeze play requires that you know in advance that your opponents are capable of making sophisticated laydowns. That's a pretty rare read to get on multiple players in league games, which is why I think this isn't such a great squeeze spot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Swaxwell View Post
Also @ Panicky, yes I bluffed my whole stack, and this might seem the easy way out, but surely I couldn’t have raised/folded with my stack size as it was right? So might as well just shove.
You're right, you couldn't have raise/folded here. Shoving is definitely better. But since players who missed this board will typically check it, and those who hit it wuld typically min-bet like they did here with a wide array of hands that beat yours (e.g. min-betting trips to induce action, min-betting a straight draw as a blocker bet), you're getting the message that you're beat, or that you're at least not getting folds.
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 07:59 PM
(#7)
Swaxwell's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 315
Ah crap I think I just deleted my extensive response to this. Oh well I shall try again with brevety.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Regarding the idea that this might be a good spot to squeeze, my understanding of the squeeze play requires that you know in advance that your opponents are capable of making sophisticated laydowns.
Why sophisticated laydowns, as opposed to just laydowns? I am fairly confident here that most people will laydown plenty enough hands for me to be happy with.


[/QUOTE]You're right, you couldn't have raise/folded here. Shoving is definitely better. But since players who missed this board will typically check it, and those who hit it wuld typically min-bet like they did here with a wide array of hands that beat yours (e.g. min-betting trips to induce action, min-betting a straight draw as a blocker bet), you're getting the message that you're beat, or that you're at least not getting folds.[/QUOTE]

Well I have tried and I can't get the last bit to properly quote. Anyway I don't understand the logic behind the statement that in this situation I am "getting the message that you're beat, or that you're at least not getting folds."
 
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Thu Jun 09, 2011, 10:38 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Someone bet at a dry board. They'll usually have something. Even if they don't, the person who called probably will. In big multi-way pots, people will often actually flop trips here. And even if they only flopped two pair (doesn't matter what the second pair is), is it all that convincing that you have a monster hand? You'll get called by plenty of people with two pair, up-and-down draws, and trips, and you'll be behind them all.
 

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