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$3 Freezeout: JJ Against Passive Opponent, Three-Flush Flop w/ an Ace

 
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$3 Freezeout: JJ Against Passive Opponent, Three-Flush Flop w/ an Ace - Sat Jun 11, 2011, 02:22 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
How's my line? Villain is extremely passive, running about 40/0 over about 10 hands. He has a post-flop aggression factor of 1.5, but has made some pretty bad calls. I sort of gave up on my hand on the flop, because I was probably getting action from half of the guy's range, and I certainly didn't want it. When the guy checked the turn, I felt like it was time to rule out some split pair ace combos in his range, and bet something to price out the flush draws. In retrospect, I think that ruling out aces was a bad assumption, because he'd probably check for fear of getting action from flush draws if he was on the ace. I'm curious what you guys think the optimal line here would have been (against this villain, and just a general profitable line to take if I didn't have a read).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t2700)
Button (t13477)
SB (t10020)
BB (t2800)
UTG (t3000)
Panicky (UTG+1) (t4985)
MP1 (t5880)
MP2 (t7324)

Panicky's M: 33.23

Preflop: Panicky is UTG+1 with J, J
UTG calls t100, Panicky bets t450, 6 folds, UTG calls t350

Flop: (t1050) 10, 4, A (2 players)
UTG checks, Panicky checks

Turn: (t1050) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Panicky bets t900, UTG calls t900

River: (t2850) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets t1650 (All-In), Panicky folds

Total pot: t2850
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 02:53 AM
(#2)
jf70's Avatar
Since: Feb 2009
Posts: 88
BronzeStar
JJ is tricky - hard to let go, but if you play postflop you're almost always confronting overcards.

First question is the pfr - 4.5x? I'm not sure what your standard is here, but it doesn't make much sense to vary the pfr size with hand strength (for obvious reasons).

Other than that it's a difficult spot, I would rather have bet the flop and thrown it away if faced with a call or raise. If you represent the ace you're likely to get folded to (assuming he doesn't have it); if he does have it, no way you can make him fold and you're just going to lose more chips. Seeing additional cards is useless to you here because you have far more dangerous outs than the 2 that will improve you; that's another reason to take it down here. You also have position on the guy. The check on the flop doesn't make sense to me.

Pot-sized bet on the turn is strange. Small chance of the set; small chance of a small-kickered ace, but what is he really going to see there? In his position I would probably guess an attempt to bluff me out. You're not really representing any concrete & obvious hand. The shove on the river suggests to me that he's either been slowplaying (if the ace, the flop bet would have been useless; if the ten, you might have been able to get him off it instead of giving the free card) or chasing the flush with a high club; in either case he's got you covered.

So yeah with Jacks the UTG+1 raise pf is okay, although I think that unless all the chips go in preflop and heads up you're generally -eV with a hand like this (99, TT, JJ...), but the flop-check and subsequent bet seems like a weak play.

Also on the subject of reads -- I didn't really take that into account in this reply, and the reason for that is reads very often give you false confidence. It's like raising from the button and being re-raised by the big stack in the big blind - a resteal, you might guess, until he shows KK. It's usually better to play cautiously than rely on a theoretical tell or read simply because the mistakes here cost you more than your successes earn. 10 hands is barely a sample, and weak players hit hands just as often as strong ones.
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 03:07 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
My preflop bet was an isolation bet, ergo its size.
 
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?? - Sat Jun 11, 2011, 06:40 AM
(#4)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Me thinks the delayed C-bet is weak - PP- i think i would have either c-bet the flop, or went into check/call/fold mode--and hope to get to showdown- as cheaply as possible-- either way- the call of your pot sized bet pretty much tells you all you need to know there-
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 08:39 AM
(#5)
tombomb92's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 7
i think preflop my line would have been to open to 3bb there then to cbet the flop and if it was reraised then i would fold with the plan of check folding the following streets


on the flop

i would only c bet here

if your opponent has top pair and is still drawing at a flush you have 1 out and are behind
even if you opponents flushing he has 9 outs and 2 streets to hit

turn

the 10 although seems to be a "safe card" he could be on pocket 10s from time to time players of this level like to float with hands like this as hes only calling a preflop raise no bet on the flop and to be honest has a ok hand to play this way ( although i would have cbet the flop )

but as you didnt bet the flop and no action took place he could be on week hands and may have hit the turn and is now presuming his hand is good


river :/

check folding is the only option here it opened a whole new world of possibilitys so as played let it go




in all i dont feel the hand played out to badly i think the only real difference i would have made would have been to c bet the flop and then to evaluate the turn but still taking a fairly passive line
also i dont really feel that 10 hands is enough to work out someones play
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 10:46 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,844
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
if you're going to raise that much preflop, then why not follow it up with something on the flop.... that way you can at least see where you're at?

I'd have rather done what you did on the turn... on the flop. That way you let your opponent be ahead of you with a 10, or the others that could be ahead after the flop.
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 07:45 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
if you're going to raise that much preflop, then why not follow it up with something on the flop.... that way you can at least see where you're at?
Like I said, I'm probably getting at least called by half of the guy's range: any club, and any ace. If I get called, then I'm way ahead of the club draw, but way behind the ace, so I should definitely bet the turn if it's the clubs, but fold if it's the ace. I'll never know which it is, so even betting the flop to 'see where I'm at' (which I'm not a fan of to begin with) is useless. Betting the turn cuts the villain's implied odds from calling with the clubs drastically, so if they're any good, they should fold, because they're making a -EV play if they have the clubs and call. So, making a delayed c-bet should give me more fold equity than a flop c-bet. That doesn't necessarily make my turn c-bet good, but I think that it's better than a flop c-bet.
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 10:40 PM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
This type of flop drives me nuts the way it's kind of great and not great for everybody. If somebody flops a flush, they have to worry about somebody drawing out with the A - if they aren't already there. And what do you do if you have a pr and a flush and/or straight draw? Or top pr, solid pocket pr, 2pr, trip/set?

And then for the lucky person who flops the nuts, sometimes people are so eager to get out of the hand, they get no value out of their monster hand. On the other hand, sometimes somebody goes for it, and you know they don't have the nuts, so then the pot becomes enormous and everybody's just holding their breath hoping what they have is good. And then if the 4th to the suit hits the board, there could be 2,3,4 people who have the flush. Or just one and the person with the trip A's loses out to person who completes the flush with their 2 or whatever.

Arrrgggghhhhh ....

Last edited by TrustySam; Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 10:44 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 11, 2011, 10:59 PM
(#9)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
this situation seems to me that your opponet most likley had the ace or the made flush buy looking at the preflop action,also remember in micro limits mtts 90% of players playing at this buy in level will call any ace with any raise!
 

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