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Weird Move

 
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Weird Move - Sun Jun 12, 2011, 06:54 PM
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jf70's Avatar
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Posts: 88
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Guy's tight - 10K stack, average is like 3800 at this point - and has run a VPIP of 20, PFR 18, over 46 hands. I've only seen him at showdown once, with AKs.
Then he does this:


It's weird because I don't see a tight player like that bluffing for his entire stack, but could he seriously be open shoving with AA or KK? It just seems strange...
 
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Sun Jun 12, 2011, 07:37 PM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
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Open shoving is always an option when playing poker, and depending on the position of the shover, the effective stacks, and the payout structure, there are cases in which it should never be -EV to do so. For example, if the villain were shoving AA here, it would not be -EV. It might not be the biggest +EV play, but sometimes it's just easier to shove than try and play a post-flop game (like when you have less than 10BB). In this case, the villain probably wanted to gain chips but avoid giving you a chance to 3bet them or flat call and play a pot in position. They probably figured that open shoving would be +EV, but calling a 3bet would be -EV, so the only guaranteed +EV line would be to open shove. It's likely that they did this with a hand that would not be strong enough to play a post-flop game with OOP or call a preflop 3bet with, so it's likely you were getting shoved on by a marginal hand like KJs or 77, that was still a +EV open shove. Or, you might have been up against someone trying awkwardly to get value out of a bad hand like 64o. Or you might have been getting played and they might have been shoving AA, hoping you'd make a curiousity call. Hard to say.
 
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Sun Jun 12, 2011, 08:31 PM
(#3)
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lmao..For some reason I knew you would pick the Count for your avator!

I can give you my thinking on his shove but most players do this for different reasons.
Most likely in PSO is that he feels comfortable with 10K than 9.6K.

So here is my reasoing for why I like his play:
I dont do this as early if I am as deep as him but something to look at.
Blind on blind can be the most tilting battles.How often have we seen a player bully another players blinds relentlessly and the Big blind finally pushes with something he shouldnt have?
Or in chat the player saying "leave my blinds alone"!People tilt from BVB play more than any other position at the table.I compare it to my ***** is bigger than your ***** type of mentality.
I used to take blind play really personally and it would always backfire and I would have more than one player coming at me once they picked up on that.

So I make villians play to tilt a player or make them think I am a donk or laggy.
Its metagame and he is planning for later on with a better hand to make the same play.
Sometimes it works and a lot of the time it doesnt get the Big blind to call but it can be profitable if used against the right players.

Have to remember that we all learn from the same books and I read BvB is like the last frontier of poker.Creativity shines and people get curious when some one plays decent poker and then makes a strange play.Compare it to the massive overbet on the river type play.
Some people call odd bets just to see,some fold to smaller than normal bets.
Hope some of that makes sense.

I do use this against weaker opponents,but in the PSO its a good chance that he is not thinking
metagame and is just playing his hands with aggression when he has them.Your stats point to him
being more aggressive than normal for PSO for sure and when he plays he is firing rather than calling.

Some players believe it is profitable to shove any two cards from the small blind as well,so
many reasons.It all depends on how he plays post flop for a good read.

To be honest when I first started playing poker I was a big Shaun Deeb fan and when he was at my table I would fold any hand in the blinds to him,just scared to get involved and didnt want to be outed as the donk.He would attack me to the point that I would eventually have to make a stand and because his play was so far ahead of mine he knew when to put the pressure on.
I busted to him more than any other player in my blinds.
 
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Sun Jun 12, 2011, 08:56 PM
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jf70's Avatar
Since: Feb 2009
Posts: 88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Open shoving is always an option when playing poker, and depending on the position of the shover, the effective stacks, and the payout structure, there are cases in which it should never be -EV to do so. For example, if the villain were shoving AA here, it would not be -EV. It might not be the biggest +EV play, but sometimes it's just easier to shove than try and play a post-flop game (like when you have less than 10BB). In this case, the villain probably wanted to gain chips but avoid giving you a chance to 3bet them or flat call and play a pot in position. They probably figured that open shoving would be +EV, but calling a 3bet would be -EV, so the only guaranteed +EV line would be to open shove. It's likely that they did this with a hand that would not be strong enough to play a post-flop game with OOP or call a preflop 3bet with, so it's likely you were getting shoved on by a marginal hand like KJs or 77, that was still a +EV open shove. Or, you might have been up against someone trying awkwardly to get value out of a bad hand like 64o. Or you might have been getting played and they might have been shoving AA, hoping you'd make a curiousity call. Hard to say.
Haha I saw him later make the same move, get a "curiosity call" as you say it and flip Aces. It's still a weird play though - most of the time you have to expect everyone to fold, given your tightness and tendencies etc.

About eV (you think of everything in terms of eV don't you) I mean how is regular raising and maybe 3-betting not +eV? If they raise all in they get called by QQ+, AQs+ maybe, but that's only a very small %age of the time. Most of the time they win blinds, which a standard raise might do, but feigning weakness might incite a bluff or even a call all in on a flop like K37 with AK. Sure you sacrifice free cards, but the cost of winning more is having to fold a really strong pf hand sometimes -- I don't see how open shoving can be >eV than representing AJ or something..

Anyways, i guess the hand just goes to show that even people apparently playing ABC TAG poker can have really weird habits
 
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Sun Jun 12, 2011, 09:03 PM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by jf70 View Post
I don't see how open shoving can be >eV than representing AJ or something.
Well, in this case, neither do I. You'd have to ask them why they did it. Maybe they're a legitimately awful post-flop player who stacks off with AA on a 678 single-suited board too often, and they're just saving themself from post-flop mistakes. Maybe they're trying something new. Maybe they actually think the curiousity calls will get them more money long-term. Maybe they're thinking of the metagame. Maybe they're thinking that they really have to pee. I couldn't tell you.
 
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Tue Jun 14, 2011, 04:35 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jf70 View Post
Guy's tight - 10K stack, average is like 3800 at this point - and has run a VPIP of 20, PFR 18, over 46 hands. I've only seen him at showdown once, with AKs.
Then he does this:


It's weird because I don't see a tight player like that bluffing for his entire stack, but could he seriously be open shoving with AA or KK? It just seems strange...
"Tight" does not necessarily mean the same as "good".

Maybe he just doesn't "get" the fact that winning your 150 is not worth the potential loss of 2/3rds his stack. Or maybe he read somewhere (or someone told him), that you will lay down everything but 2 hands in this spot, so blind on blind he feels he "owns" you.

I can't be fussed to run an estimate of his TEQ for this play with a 9k+ stack, especially since I'd have to assume field size, structure, number of busters etc. Fact is though, adding 1.5% to his stack 98 times in 100 when you do NOT have AA/KK/QQ (if you are loose enough to call that QQ), versus the amount he might LOSE in TEQ if he chips you up, is gunna be pretty boarderline I think.

Fact is, I think it boils down to what he might think of YOU and YOUR calling standards.
What was info on you?
That is pretty telling I think...

I think you can pretty safely put him bng on a middle PP, or an AK tbh, not that it really matters.

I doubt that you even gave a KTo call for your tourney life with a 40+ BB stack even a moment's consideration....

(oops, 27BB stack. Thought it was 150 BB. Sorry)

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 04:38 PM..
 
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Tue Jun 14, 2011, 05:24 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Well, in this case, neither do I. You'd have to ask them why they did it. Maybe they're a legitimately awful post-flop player who stacks off with AA on a 678 single-suited board too often, and they're just saving themself from post-flop mistakes. Maybe they're trying something new. Maybe they actually think the curiousity calls will get them more money long-term. Maybe they're thinking of the metagame. Maybe they're thinking that they really have to pee. I couldn't tell you.
BAH...

Now you did it. Now I gotta run the calcs.

First:
Money is pretty deep for both players, 27BB for the Hero (the shorter stack), and ~38.5BB for the Villain.

NEXT:
Assume on this depth of money, Hero will have a VERY tight calling range: AA/KK, and for shiggles, let's say QQ...that's it.
there are 169 descreet hands in hold 'em, so if you are calling on 3 of 'em, you have a 1.4% range.

NEXT:
Hero will FOLD 98.6 times, and Villain wins 250.
Hero will CALL 1.4 times. Sometimes he wins, sometimes he loses.
We must RANGE the Villain to find out how often for each...

NEXT:
I know a lot of people jam mid PP, and AK, but there is also a chance he is blooooofing.
So let's say he will jam his pp range is 22 thru JJ (he hates JJ) 60% of the time.
Let's also say AK, os or s, 20% of the time (there are more ways he has a PP than AK afterall).
10% of the time he is on a "monster" QQ/KK/AA
10% of the time he is on a random range and is blooooooofing completely.

NEXT:
Versus JJ-22, it is 81% v. 19% for your AA/KK/QQ range.
Versus AKos/s, it is 68% v. 32% versus your range.
Versus AA/KK/QQ, it is 3.89% one or the other of you wins, with the rest ties, so 50/50 equity overall.
Versus a completely random range, excluding AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AKs (group 1 hands), it is 82.5% v. 17.5% versus your range.

NEXT:
1.4% x 20 % = .28 times he has AK
1.4% x 60% = .84 times he has JJ-22
1.4% x 10% = .14 times he has AA/KK/QQ
1.4% x 10% = .14 times he is on a completely random range.
Add 'em all up, and they equal the 1.4 times you call....

NEXT:
.28 x .68 = .19 times you win 7130 when he has AK
.28 x .32 = .09 times you lose 7130 when he has AK

.84 x .81 = .68 times you win 7130 when he has AK
.84 x .19 = .16 times you lose 7130 when he has AK

.14 x .825 = .12 times you win 7130 when he has a random hand
.14 x .175 = .03 times he wins 7130 when he has a random hand

There is no need to calc the 50/50 equity prop, as it comes out in the wash.

NEXT:
Villain WINS 250 x 98.6 = 24650
Villain WINS 7130 x .09 = 641.7
Villain WINS 7130 x .16 = 1140.8
Villain WINS 7130 x .03 = 213.9
Total = 26646.4

NEXT:
Hero WINS 7130 x .19 = 1354.7
Hero WINS 7130 x .68 = 4848.4
Hero WINS 7130 x .12 = 855.6
Total: 7058.7

BOTTOM LINE:
26646.4 - 7058.7 = +19587.7 for Villain
19587.9 / 100 = +EV 195.877 for this play by him.

('Course it all changes if you are calling looser than AA/KK/QQ on a 27BB stack!)

The bottom line is that this is a solid +ev play in terms of just chip equity if your range includes just 3 hands.
That does NOT mean to say I think this guy was "smart" for doing this here...

In my post I stated I wasn;t sure it was a good tourney equity play, simply because the "benefit" vs. the "risk" may not be really good enough to chase that 250 here.
If you had only HALF his stack (~4600 - 5000), maybe, although there you might be "ready" to stand wider than AA/KK/QQ on right around 20BB...
If you had only 2500-3000 and STILL would only call AA/KK/QQ, then definately it is a good play.

There is a lot of things which factor into it, but if you are looking at JUST chip equity, and you are only calling AA/KK/QQ, then it certainly is a +ev play.
 
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Wed Jun 15, 2011, 09:17 AM
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jf70's Avatar
Since: Feb 2009
Posts: 88
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Haha that's a fascinatingly long analysis.

I mean if you're assuming he's stealing blinds - which it's fair to say everybody does - it makes no sense to risk his entire stack, because he can basically stop me from calling with anything but the top hands with even a raise of half or 1/3 of his stack.

But anyways I played with the villain for a while later on and like I said above, when he got called making the same insta-shove from any position (including the blinds) he showed KK or AA.

I think the most interesting part of this is how often he got called. Lots of curiosity calls with hands like KJ, A6, from people who weren't really thinking about his range but rather about the potential rewards if they double up thru him. I mean you'd think trapping with aces or representing a slightly weaker hand would be more profitable, but judging by the amount of times he got called - I think this was a freeroll, can't remember - the donks are exploitable even in the weirdest ways.
 
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Wed Jun 15, 2011, 01:12 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jf70 View Post
Haha that's a fascinatingly long analysis.

I mean if you're assuming he's stealing blinds - which it's fair to say everybody does - it makes no sense to risk his entire stack, because he can basically stop me from calling with anything but the top hands with even a raise of half or 1/3 of his stack.

But anyways I played with the villain for a while later on and like I said above, when he got called making the same insta-shove from any position (including the blinds) he showed KK or AA.

I think the most interesting part of this is how often he got called. Lots of curiosity calls with hands like KJ, A6, from people who weren't really thinking about his range but rather about the potential rewards if they double up thru him. I mean you'd think trapping with aces or representing a slightly weaker hand would be more profitable, but judging by the amount of times he got called - I think this was a freeroll, can't remember - the donks are exploitable even in the weirdest ways.

Oh I agree with you 100%...

This guy is really "value owning" himself. He is either getting a fold and winning VERY LITTLE, or he gets called by something that has him "crushed", such as AA when he jams KK. Fact is, this is not very conducive to long term positive EV, simply because he will NOT get AA/KK enough in those situations (blind v. blind) to make that sort of play worthwhile really. He either MUST widen his shove range in B v. B situations, or he has to try getting more value from those monsters.

As for the analysis, it is really simple calcs. Actually factoring his TOURNEY EQUITY for that shove tho is a ton harder. For that you have to consider the Average stack in the event when he shoves, what his "win" and "loss" stack is and how it relates to the average stack, his relative skill level versus the field, etc etc etc...

As for you other point, I agree totally, especially if it IS a "free roll": there are some REALLY CURIOUS folks who will call with some god-awful CHEESE, and that tends to really increase the overall equity for jamming AA/KK. Of course you must also consider that after a certain point, even in free rolls, the "donks" who will call off a substantial stack (25+ BB) with a hand like KJ or A6 are probably gone- that tends to KILL his action with those shoves. Then there are players like you, who AREN"T dumb enough to call off a workable stack with a hand like KTo...sure he wins your 250, but at what risk. That's why I was pointing out that even tho the situation you stated may be +cEV, I am FAR from certain it is really +TEV. different folks think about this game in different ways I guess...

But then that's why poker is such a fun game, right?
 

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