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Not Just in PSO... - Fri Jun 17, 2011, 10:59 PM
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ericnnancy's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 977
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From WSOP.com and the Seniors No Limit Event


Folding Aces Preflop? Only At the Seniors Event


We overheard a few players discussing an extremely interesting hand that occurred earlier in Day 1 action. Apparently, one player was holding and faced a raise, a reraise and a four-bet shove in front of him. Normally this is the type of situation that poker players only dream about, but for this particular competitor in the Seniors Event, something just didn't feel right.

According to the dealer involved, the player showed her his pocket rockets before throwing them into the muck. His remaining opponents showed and between them and after a king-high flop, the other man holding the best starting hand in hold'em hit the rail with bad beat story to take home.

The player responsible for making the mother of all laydowns later told the dealer that "he knew he was up against aces and kings," so in his estimation "he had no outs" if a king hit, and was merely playing for a chop if has hand held up. While folding pocket aces before the flop may redefine the term "unconventional play," the move worked out for this brave soul and he loved to fight another day.
 
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Fri Jun 17, 2011, 11:26 PM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
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Harrington would be ashamed.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 12:14 AM
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Drywallman3's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 277
awesome post eric, and this shows old school cats know how to play poker!!
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 12:28 AM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 06:58 AM
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ericnnancy's Avatar
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Drywall-

I just thought it was a good post to show that sometimes even the players in main events realize there is a goal and that goal is to go as far as possible. I have in the past thought that AA was always a shove hand, until I started playing PSO and had to deal with the points issue. I just wonder how many professionals have thrown away the AA and KK in that early position of a tournament just to keep their hopes alive.

We all know that we can do it in a "free" game, but how many of us could do it on the "big stage"??? And my answer would probably be that I couldn't, but hey, you never know. I knew a guy that was so nervous in a hand one time he folded quad 8s because 3 people shoved and he forgot to check his hand. After he mucked he stood up and walked out because he realized what he had done.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 09:25 AM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I remember reading in Harrington on Hold'em how Dan Harrington has heard stories from other players who have flopped sets and folded when the only possible better hand than theirs was an overset. They then told stories about how they had such a sick read that they 'knew' they were beat. Harrington called those players idiots. This situation seems pretty similar. Ergo, Harrington would be ashamed.

In any regular-structure freezeout, if you knew that you were up against KK and AA, while holding AA, you should also know that you'd be 79.57% to chop the KK's stack with the other player (or, a very small percentage of the time, to have one of the aces hit a four-runner flush to win outright). KK has the least amount of equity in the hand, and that's after the equity AA has has been halved because it has to chop with the other AA. So, it would be mathematically wrong to throw away AA here. I'm pretty sure that this reasoning is right, and because the math makes folding AA so horrible, I do believe that the young internet kids would be ashamed, too.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 09:30 AM..
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 11:18 AM
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Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hey Panicky,

When playing in such tournaments, I think equity or percentage or value etc etc goes out the door in early stages. it mainly depends on your goals. When I played my first live game, it was at this same tournament. My first goal, was to make it to the next day, therefore to make it past the first 12 hours. Also I was told, to try and relax the first 2 hours and only play premium hands, in position and only if there was one player involved. This was so that I would take time to analyze every player at the table and get my nervousness out.

That's what he probably did, very early in the tournament, he was facing a raise, a reraise and a four-bet shove in front of him. Sure you have about 80% of winning the hand, but you also have 20% chance of ending your tournament and going home.

In my first Senior's tournament, I folded KK, with 2 players involved, I was in my 3rd hour, still far from my goal of 12 hours. Glad I did fold, I would of had to spend another 3 days in Vegas wondering what if. Just to let you know, I made it to the next day and played another 7 hours and finished in the money. (and by the way, I only played 2 hands the first day)

Last year I was more knowledgeable, so I used equity, percentages and value and was out in 2 hours and 12 minutes. This player just finished playing 2 pocket aces in 8 minutes, what are the odds of him having a third pocket aces and beating my pocket KK. I didn't respect my goal, which was also to make it to the following day, longest 3 days in Vegas.

All this to say, sure all these number theories are useful, but in real life there's more to it, such as tells, strength of opponents, personal goals. All those number theories are based on volume, but in a live tournament the volume isn't there, you get knocked out holding AA, your next tournament is next year. Losing 20% of the time could also mean that you could lose 20 times in a row and then win the next 80. Some people can't wait 20 years before it happens.

As for believing that the young internet kids would be ashamed, to me there just a bunch of aggressive idiots, they would go all in with a 2-7 offsuit with no knowledge of number theories.











 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 02:24 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ericnnancy View Post
I just wonder how many professionals have thrown away the AA... in that early position of a tournament just to keep their hopes alive.
Preflop, the answer to this is zero.

Harrington would be ashamed for good reason... this person's play was horrific.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 02:28 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
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Folding AA before the flop is NOT how you win poker tournaments. If you're going to pass hugely +EV spots to accumulate chips simply because you don't want to risk your tournament life on day 1, you should seriously consider taking up cash games. MTT's are not for you.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 03:33 PM
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ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
i also agree folding aa preflop is not a good move because the chances off you getting any poket pair are approx 240 to 1 i think i herd once
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 04:02 PM
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Drywallman3's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 277
There was a hand that I won't ever seem to forget during a PSO tournament I was in.
Player in seat on shoved all in. Now this the the very first hand of the 10 pm game. All players fold, now I was sitting in seat 9. I was dealt A-A. I thought for about 3 seconds on what Player 1 had and pretty much insta called. Player 1 had 8-Q off. To my disbelief the board ran him out a straight. I was knocked out in the very first hand.

Even to this day I wonder if I should have just folded and worried about getting deeper rather than doubling up.

I see Dave's point and also Sandtrap's. I think in this particular game eric is talking about I would look back on the that PSO night and somehow tell my hand to muck them cards!!! LOL
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 04:18 PM
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Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Preflop, the answer to this is zero.
Harrington would be ashamed for good reason... this person's play was horrific.
Dave, it depends how you look at it

The pro's don't mind spewing $1,000 every day for tournaments, so yes it's a bad play for a pro, because with the law of numbers, he will win 80% of the time. Which means he can afford to lose 20 tournaments in a row

But for the amateur, which probably represents 90% of the players at the tournament, all he wants to do, is make it into the money. They don't have time and money to play 20 x $1,000 tournament to be in the numbers. You don't know, this player could be there because it was on his bucket list, it could of been a gift from his kids

So to say it was a horrific play for him, I disagree, he's still playing, while the other player with AA's, well he's railing. But if it was a pro, I would agree with you.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 04:33 PM
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effsea's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,609
l agree with both of you ...lol

but really, it's very hard to say what the right move is at any given time, meaning......
depending on many factors, i.e. feel at the table, chip stack, position etc.
in this case, it was the right move, but at another table or tourney, it may have been the wrong move,

to say that there was only one way to play it, may put you on the rail,

just the way l see it,

cheers

Last edited by effsea; Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 04:36 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 05:03 PM
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Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Another thing I just thought and I'm sure Dave will agree

If it was only 2 players all in involve, the odds are huge compare to 4 players all in than the odds diminishes for the AA. In this case, this player folded and another folded to the all in. So prior to the folds, when it was his turn to call the all in, there was that strong possibility of seeing a 4 way all in and he opted to wait for a better situation this early in

 
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?? - Sat Jun 18, 2011, 05:04 PM
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monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
and then there is the guy who folded aces preflop on the big game- after winning 200k-- and would have stacked of to phil laaks- quad 6-- and lost it all 2 hands later- entirely diff i know- but if you havent seen it- is worth watching-------
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 05:33 PM
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Drywallman3's Avatar
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Posts: 277
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyskunk4 View Post
and then there is the guy who folded aces preflop on the big game- after winning 200k-- and would have stacked of to phil laaks- quad 6-- and lost it all 2 hands later- entirely diff i know- but if you havent seen it- is worth watching-------

I watched that episode, there were prop bets about whether or not he really folded A-A!
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 07:43 PM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
As for believing that the young internet kids would be ashamed, to me there just a bunch of aggressive idiots, they would go all in with a 2-7 offsuit with no knowledge of number theories.
Hmm... I just realized that I'm young and play on the internet. lol

Your third and fourth paragraphs sound a bit like results-based thinking, Sand. Just me, though.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 07:53 PM
(#18)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
Another thing I just thought and I'm sure Dave will agree

If it was only 2 players all in involve, the odds are huge compare to 4 players all in than the odds diminishes for the AA. In this case, this player folded and another folded to the all in. So prior to the folds, when it was his turn to call the all in, there was that strong possibility of seeing a 4 way all in and he opted to wait for a better situation this early in

I predict that Dave will say that the more people entering the pot, the merrier. It doesn't matter how many people get it in against you, because if you have AA and you're preflop, you'll never be losing money long-term. You may be as low as 33% (which is about as low as you'll get if all eight other players get it in with you), but you stand to gain enough money to compensate for the weakening of your holding. It actually looks to me like the more people involved, the better your expected return becomes.

Your point about players who only play with one buy-in makes some sense, Sandtrap, but then, those players are actually making a bankroll management error by playing with scared money. There is always an optimal play in every given situation. The point of poker theory is to help us figure out what that optimal play is, although not all situations have had their optimal plays discovered. In this case, the answer is theoretically easy. The play that makes the most money long-term will always be getting aces in, in a spot like this.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 08:22 PM
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ericnnancy's Avatar
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Posts: 977
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I think I need to find more of these great posts. I must say that I am impressed with the thought process, the situation thinking, and the response that this thread has gotten. There has been some insight from some very good PSO members and I appreciate it. I can't honestly say what I would do in that situation without sitting at the table. I understand Dave's point of view as a professional, but Sandtrap has some good points. Panicky, it is nice to see you looking at different points of view with your opinions as well.

I have always thought that if I was able to play in the WSOP my goal would be to take it one day at a time and the first goal would be to make it past the first day. Having AA sitting in front of me would be very tempting to play, but at the same time, I would have to take into consideration how I would want to proceed and the players going out prior to the hand. I have seen that closer to the bubble you HAVE to take chances, but I would seriously have to consider if that was the chance I would take.
 
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Sat Jun 18, 2011, 09:37 PM
(#20)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Hmm... I just realized that I'm young and play on the internet. lol
Your third and fourth paragraphs sound a bit like results-based thinking, Sand. Just me, though.
Sorry, I was generalizing, but not far from the truth....lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
............. It doesn't matter how many people get it in against you, because if you have AA and you're preflop, you'll never be losing money long-term. You may be as low as 33% (which is about as low as you'll get if all eight other players get it in with you)...........................

........................but then, those players are actually making a bankroll management error by playing with scared money.

There is always an optimal play in every given situation. The point of poker theory is to help us figure out what that optimal play is, although not all situations have had their optimal plays discovered. In this case, the answer is theoretically easy. The play that makes the most money long-term will always be getting aces in, in a spot like this.
I agree with the long term, 80 times out of a 100 is a huge advantage, but on the short term (lets say 10 games) you might lose them all. You have 20% chance of losing and if you're on tilt or very unlucky, you might lose all 10 times. Now if I was to play 100 $2 mtt's, I don't care how many people are in, I'm also all in. So there's a big difference on the type of tournament, but even more on what type of goal you have set for yourself.

At this particular tournament (Seniors only), most of these players, it's a dream come true. It has nothing to do with bankroll management. In my case, I had put aside the $1,000 to play, because it was an affordable poker dream. It was a bragging dream, to be able to say, I played in the WSOP. But mostly, I will have no regret, because I've done it. I've met a lot of players in the last 2 tournaments I've played and I can tell you stories of how and why people played the Senior's tournament. I can tell you one thing, every single player loved the Senior's tournament because there was no kids with hoodies, or head sets or bad mouthing other players, it was a fun time. Of course 60% of them seem to be on nitro, weigh about 250 lbs and drink Red Bull to keep awake.....lol

You're right about the optimal play, different situation call for different strategy. All calls are NOT easy, when you look at long term, yes, but in this particular situation (short term), I still say he did the right move. The pro's will probably play 20 tournaments while they are there, so the long term numbers will favor them, but the amateur 1 tournament short term doesn't.

If I'm like most of the amateur Senior players, my goal was not to finish in first place (I mean sure I would love it) it was to come back home and to brag to all my friends about meeting some of the top pro's, hands that I've played and the money I came back with (if any....lol). Hey, I can even say that my name is in the cash stats on wsop.com .....

But kidding aside, Panicky, Dave and Ron, we are talking about one situation, not in general. We are talking about the Seniors tournament at the WSOP, were most players are amateur and are there for the one time experience.

Here's one for you Panicky,
2 players are all in and they both have pocket AA
What are the odds of splitting?
What are the odds of winning?
What are the odds of losing?

In the last 2 years of poker, both in mtt's and cash, this happened to me 3 times
I lost all 3 to a flush, what are the odds?
So yes big numbers talk loud, but never forget the smaller numbers...LOL

 

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