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Best spot to shove?

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Best spot to shove? - Sun Jun 19, 2011, 09:07 PM
(#1)
SHIP_IT_AK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 2
BronzeStar
The situation in which I'm looking for advice is this.......

When you are 10BB or less and are going to shove, is it better to ship it in late position with a more mediocre holding (say suited gap connectors) having had the benefit of seeing most players in front of you fold or is it better to push with any A,K,Q etc. in early position and risk running into a hand that dominates you?

I know it is maybe just a case of take your chances, but I just wanted to see if there is any argument to support one more than the other?

Thank you in advance for any advice
 
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Sun Jun 19, 2011, 09:13 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
You expand your range as people fold. It's better to ship 86s on the button of an 8-handed table than to ship AK UTG, I think, but that's a guess. It's really a mathematical question that requires some knowledge of how loose/tight the specific players behind you are.
 
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Sun Jun 19, 2011, 09:42 PM
(#3)
SHIP_IT_AK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 2
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O.K. thanks PP
 
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?? - Mon Jun 20, 2011, 07:36 AM
(#4)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Pushing is is always more advantageous than calling- as u give yourself 2 ways to win the pot-- and the later in position the better- obv. also- have a look at the stack sizes in the blinds- to make sure you have decent fold equity- from any position you are thinking of shuvving from-- also- if you are playing against "good" players- i try to avoid stealing from the button- and SB-as they may not give you credit 4 a big hand-- jmo---
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 11:39 AM
(#5)
abdi122's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHIP_IT_AK View Post
The situation in which I'm looking for advice is this.......

When you are 10BB or less and are going to shove, is it better to ship it in late position with a more mediocre holding (say suited gap connectors) having had the benefit of seeing most players in front of you fold or is it better to push with any A,K,Q etc. in early position and risk running into a hand that dominates you?

I know it is maybe just a case of take your chances, but I just wanted to see if there is any argument to support one more than the other?

Thank you in advance for any advice
Well This really Depends on alot of things A) Blinds? B)Stack Sizes of the Table C) Your Position...Now Lets look at 2 cases where in 1 case your on the Button/H.J/C.O, and the Other your UTG, UTG+1+2 M.P..You Obviously know that stealing from Early Positions is never a Good Idea, also you know that you Need a strong starting hand to Play E.P. so there-Fore you can't really steal From the E.P (Unless I'm mistaken)? Now lets Look at the Later Positions and Assume that the Entire Table Folds over to Where Your at with no Raises In Between it, then You Shouldn't really even in this Case Shove for the Simple fact that all those Limpers prior to You can be Sand Bagging and Also you Generally want A bigger hand with Many Players limping into Pots....Now If you have 86s in Later Position with No Raises Prior to you and Not Many Limpers then you can Safely Steal for the Simple fact that 1 limper or 2 limpers Don't/Might Not have that Big of a Hand there Fore your steal in that Scenario would More then Likely Work..This Also depends on the Types of players your playing against...

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
You expand your range as people fold. It's better to ship 86s on the button of an 8-handed table than to ship AK UTG, I think, but that's a guess. It's really a mathematical question that requires some knowledge of how loose/tight the specific players behind you are.

With 10BB's Why Not Shove UTG with AK? I mean Are we not Trying to Double up?
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 03:17 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I'm for sure shoving AK UTG with 10BB, except in some rare circumstances. I just think that shoving 86s from the button is more +EV, but again, that might be incorrect.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 03:37 PM
(#7)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Panicky,

As i see it open-shoving with AK at 10 BB is betting for value while open-shoving 86s from the button is a semi-bluff. The EV associated with both plays are dependent on your opponents and their stack sizes. If the table is playing too tight I'll push with 72o when opening from the button with 10 BB where as with AK I am shoving in almost any circumstance short of facing a 3 bet.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 03:58 PM
(#8)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I'm for sure shoving AK UTG with 10BB, except in some rare circumstances. I just think that shoving 86s from the button is more +EV, but again, that might be incorrect.

I'm shoving AK UTG in almost any circumstance myself as I agree with Joe here,in most circumstances I'm getting value there. 86s from the button? Meh,very much a situational play depending on effective stack sizes,the tendencies of the 2 players on the blinds,MY table image and where we're at in the MTT/SNG if that's the case (last variable doesn't apply on a cash table obviously).

On a lighter note I saw the title of this thread--"Best Spot To Shove"-- and the first thought that popped into my mind was, "When your mother-in-law is leaning over the railing at Niagara Falls and no one is looking".
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 06:26 PM
(#9)
abdi122's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I'm for sure shoving AK UTG with 10BB, except in some rare circumstances. I just think that shoving 86s from the button is more +EV, but again, that might be incorrect.
Just Curious Panicky when shoving with 86s in the Button even though that play is more EV against the Blinds (Depending on How tight they play)+Stack Size+If there Committed and other Variables do you still do this Play with Limpers Prior to it coming around to you? Cuz in that Case I'd think it Would be -EV unless I'm mistaken?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
I'm shoving AK UTG in almost any circumstance myself as I agree with Joe here,in most circumstances I'm getting value there. 86s from the button? Meh,very much a situational play depending on effective stack sizes,the tendencies of the 2 players on the blinds,MY table image and where we're at in the MTT/SNG if that's the case (last variable doesn't apply on a cash table obviously).

On a lighter note I saw the title of this thread--"Best Spot To Shove"-- and the first thought that popped into my mind was, "When your mother-in-law is leaning over the railing at Niagara Falls and no one is looking".
I just wanted to say I laughed at the Final Comment
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 08:52 PM
(#10)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
When shoving, this is one way to look at the math behind the expected value.

Once you've shoved, what are the chances that the next person will call? Let's assume that If you're shoving AK from UTG, 9-handed, then everyone behind will call or overcall with the top 10% of hands (a pretty big simplification; each player will have a different calling and overcalling range, and sometimes even a 3betting range. That's what makes spots like this 'player dependant'; if you ever do these kinds of calculations away from the table, you'll likely have much different numbers).

Once you've figured out the frequency with which you'll get called, you just Pokerstove your equity in those cases, and add all the cases together. I haven't studied this math enough to be an expert on it, but I think that this is how the equation breaks down:

Since each person will fold 90% of the time, and there are 8 people behind, the chance that you will win the initial pot is 90% (or .9) raised to the 8th power (so, .9 ^ 8 = .43046721, or about 43%). So, 43% of the time, you'll be +1.5BB (assuming no antes are in play). From here, you work out how + or -EV you are when you get called.

Let's assume that one person calls you (which, without showing the mathematical calculations, happens roughly 38.3% of the time if my math is right). AK's equity vs. Pokerstove's top 10% of hands works out to be 58.3%. So, in the 38.3% of the time that you get called once, you'll be +21BB (more or less) about 58% of the time, and -10BB about 42% of the time. You just continue like this until you're done and you've figured out whether the spot is +EV or -EV.

The reason I think shoving 86s on the button might be more +EV is because even if you expand your opponents' calling ranges to 20%, you're still winning the initial pot 64% of the time, which means you have way more fold equity than when you were shoving UTG. You might lose all of that equity when you get called and have to show down, though. You need pretty decent reads to really come up with the right numbers to plug into these calculations, but if you understand how your opponents play, you can actually mathematically determine the expected value of just about any given situation.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 09:15 PM
(#11)
Drywallman3's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 277
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Panicky,

As i see it open-shoving with AK at 10 BB is betting for value while open-shoving 86s from the button is a semi-bluff. The EV associated with both plays are dependent on your opponents and their stack sizes. If the table is playing too tight I'll push with 72o when opening from the button with 10 BB where as with AK I am shoving in almost any circumstance short of facing a 3 bet.

Joe your assuming this will apply outside of PSO. This will on a blue moon rarely ever work. I haven't played since Black Friday but I'm sure it has not changed and or even has turned worse.

you know people will shove 7-2 from any position during the first 2 breaks.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 09:23 PM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
Panicky,

As i see it open-shoving with AK at 10 BB is betting for value while open-shoving 86s from the button is a semi-bluff. The EV associated with both plays are dependent on your opponents and their stack sizes. If the table is playing too tight I'll push with 72o when opening from the button with 10 BB where as with AK I am shoving in almost any circumstance short of facing a 3 bet.
They're really both semi-bluffs. You're just balancing fold equity with pot equity given the frequency with which you think you'll get called.
 
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Tue Jun 21, 2011, 09:40 AM
(#13)
KOingDonks's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 322
Just bingo it like abdi122 does ull have no worries LOL
 
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Panic with 10 bbs - Fri Jun 24, 2011, 02:03 AM
(#14)
BARRYDOGG378's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 132
ChromeStar
I see aye lot of players panic,when they get under ten bbs,i dont panic untill ive got 4 antis left,not in this league and structure anyway,if your holding 2 bbs,your still got 16 hands to hit,why panic?dogg gone
 

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