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Definately sickening.AA beat by 9 10

 
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Definately sickening.AA beat by 9 10 - Mon Jun 20, 2011, 02:48 AM
(#1)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 04:14 AM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
When the SB raises all-in here and the BB calls it came back around to you and you flatted. Uh-uh,not me. This played out this way on me and I'm holding rockets I'm jamming to try and isolate the SB.

Once he hits top pair on the flop...well if he's a bad player he's going to overvalue top pair/weak kicker so he's probably never going to go away at that point as evidenced here. Post-flop I really don't see anything that you could have done differently---only thing you can possibly be sweating is that he hit a set playing 1010,66 or 22. A hand like A10 (certainly possible as over-valued as that hand sometimes is) is easily a possibility,but that's a hand you want to see him show.

Bottom line to me is when the cards are turned over and you give a little fist pump (as I would have here) it's really hard to fault your line. Just a very unlucky result is all.

So the only thing I can say to do different here is pre-flop with AA I'm making the BB decide how much he really like his hand right then and there, as you should always try to get into ISO-spots with your premium pairs.
 
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reply - Mon Jun 20, 2011, 04:21 AM
(#3)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
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so you're telling me the 4.16% hitting the runner runner flush to beat me was all good.

Last edited by Stakehorse75; Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 04:36 AM..
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 04:22 AM
(#4)
Anykey444's Avatar
Since: Jan 2011
Posts: 15
Bid bet happens every game but IMHO you should 4bet preflop
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 04:44 AM
(#5)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Why did you raise to 570 preflop??? What are you trying to make everyone, even the shortstack, fold?

Were you able to reraise preflop? If so why didn't you? If not, that's another argument against raising to 570 preflop.

Also 10 9 suited is a premium aces-breaker. Really, that's not a shocking beat. Just be happy you got all the money in while you were still ahead.

Also, he had a pair on the flop. He has a few draws to beat you. He can hit a 10, he can hit a 9, he can hit 78 for a backdoor straight, or a couple clubs for a backdoor flush. He's still about a 3 to 1 dog. You got the money in ahead, but he's not terribly far behind.

This just seems like a bad beat post.

Last edited by oriholic; Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 04:46 AM..
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 04:45 AM
(#6)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stakehorse75 View Post
so you're telling me the 4.16% hitting the runner runner flush to beat me was all good.

????

Where do you get that from Stake? I said it was a very unlucky result didn't I? What part of very unlucky result are you having trouble grasping?

Like I said the only thing I can see doing differently here (and I would have done myself) is to get it in pre-flop. Good chance you may have chased the villain off if you do that.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 04:45 AM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stakehorse75 View Post
so you're telling me the 4.16% hitting the runner runner flush to beat me was all good.

...Or to hit a 9 or a 10 or some runners for a straight...He was about 25% to win when the flop came.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 05:03 AM
(#8)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Why did you raise to 570 preflop??? What are you trying to make everyone, even the shortstack, fold?

Were you able to reraise preflop? If so why didn't you? If not, that's another argument against raising to 570 preflop.

Also 10 9 suited is a premium aces-breaker. Really, that's not a shocking beat. Just be happy you got all the money in while you were still ahead.

Also, he had a pair on the flop. He has a few draws to beat you. He can hit a 10, he can hit a 9, he can hit 78 for a backdoor straight, or a couple clubs for a backdoor flush. He's still about a 3 to 1 dog. You got the money in ahead, but he's not terribly far behind.

This just seems like a bad beat post.
He posted this hand in the Bad Beat forum as well.

Stake if you're going to post hands in the Hands Analysis section then be prepared to have your play in said hands analyzed---hence the name of the section. You may not always like what's said but I can pretty much guarantee you that if you take a deep breath,step back and look at the analysis of things that you could have done differently then you can profit from it.

Like I said,post flop not a whole lot you can do here. If he's going down swinging with top pair/weak kicker then that's a play you want to see him make at you over and over. The result sucked,but nothing you can do to change that.

But pre-flop there is plenty to look at here. Ori raises an excellent point as well. The 570 raise,I have to think that's outside your normal raise parameters. Stake when open raise bigger with premium hands and less with small pairs and drawing hands---THAT'S A TELL. And it's exploitable. If I'm in the BB here with 109s and I'm reasonably sure that you're holding a hand like AA,KK or QQ then I may be tempted to play my 109s,as that's a hand that can flop HUGE against a premium pair. As Ori alluded to,suited connectors are classic AA busters. And given the effective stack sizes here and the chips in the middle,and one player being stymied from making any more bets in the hands as they're all-in,then 109s is not a terrible play pre-flop for that price if the villain feels he has a strong read on your hand. You should have re-pop jammed IMO to price him out.

His play after the flop is pretty bad to me and you want players over-valuing a hand like top pair/weak kicker,that's the type of player that will pay you off much more often than not. When someone makes that kind of play and hits runner-runner on you all you can do is shake your head and move on.

But you could have very well avoided this outcome had you played this hand better pre-flop.
 
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pace of play - Mon Jun 20, 2011, 07:03 AM
(#9)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Shytty beat 4 sure stake- and i dont see it going down any other way- unless you reshuv over the SB- pre-- still tho- liversteve prob call anyway--but..............................

This is something ive been trying lately when holding big hands against 2 or 3 maniacs-when i want to isolate-- and its about pace of play-

Ive started waiting 7 or 8 seconds before 4 betting or shipping it- for this reason- to take the video game aspect out of the equation, and actually make the clowns think about what they gonna do--I find that these clic happy fools- will actually fold- some times- when u make em wait- and they have to think-- food for thought stake-- gl man- monk.........
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 12:15 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
When the SB raises all-in here and the BB calls it came back around to you and you flatted. Uh-uh,not me. This played out this way on me and I'm holding rockets I'm jamming to try and isolate the SB.
+1 With a short stack push and a call... I'm pushing right then and there, as it's the only way you'll have a better shot at getting the BB to fold... and you're a ton better off against 1 hand than 2.

Although, you did get your chips in with the best hand.. not much you can do with that (same type of beat I took in the wsop circuit, AA to J 10 with a J on the flop, but they rivered a 10). Those beats will eventually happen, just take from it that you got your chips in while ahead is all you can do.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 12:48 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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The last time I kind of tried to semi-slowplay a monster hand and lost, it kind of threw me off the deep end and made me want so badly to avoid having to deal with that kind of a bad beat, that I did start raising to let the strength of my hand be known to minimize risk. But lately I've been wondering about whether chasing people out of a hand is costing value in the long-run.

Just look at Stakehorse's odds:

Pre-flop:
22%
6%
71%

Post-flop:
25%
2%
73%

Turn:
Pre-flop:
31%
0%
69%

If you're playing the math, shouldn't you actually WANT the villain to stack off with 9Ts, rather than chase them out of the hand? I haven't been doing that, but maybe in the long-run it pays off (chips wise, although it might cost you your sanity to have to deal with the bad-beats )?

I'm very torn

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 12:57 PM..
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 01:53 PM
(#12)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
The last time I kind of tried to semi-slowplay a monster hand and lost, it kind of threw me off the deep end and made me want so badly to avoid having to deal with that kind of a bad beat, that I did start raising to let the strength of my hand be known to minimize risk. But lately I've been wondering about whether chasing people out of a hand is costing value in the long-run.

Just look at Stakehorse's odds:

Pre-flop:
22%
6%
71%

Post-flop:
25%
2%
73%

Turn:
Pre-flop:
31%
0%
69%

If you're playing the math, shouldn't you actually WANT the villain to stack off with 9Ts, rather than chase them out of the hand? I haven't been doing that, but maybe in the long-run it pays off (chips wise, although it might cost you your sanity to have to deal with the bad-beats )?

I'm very torn
It can be argued either way but for myself I stick to the mantra that AA and KK (QQ even) is just a pair after all and therefore plays much better post-flop against 1 hand than 2 or more.And in a situation like the hand being discussed here I would be perfectly happy with the chips I would garner off the BB if I can move them off the hand by re-pop jamming pre-flop.
 
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Mon Jun 20, 2011, 06:19 PM
(#13)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moxie Pip View Post
It can be argued either way but for myself I stick to the mantra that AA and KK (QQ even) is just a pair after all and therefore plays much better post-flop against 1 hand than 2 or more.And in a situation like the hand being discussed here I would be perfectly happy with the chips I would garner off the BB if I can move them off the hand by re-pop jamming pre-flop.
Yeah, that's sort of been my guiding principle - bird in the hand is worth two in the bush ... especially in PSO!! If the bigger stack will fold to a raise, then by raising you can basically make sure that there's no possible way to go bust.

At the same time, the math is compelling ...

Main pot: 2685

Pre-flop:
22%
6%
71%

Post-flop:
25%
2%
73%

Turn:
Pre-flop:
31%
0%
69%

Expected Value for AA pre-flop: 0.71*2685=1906



Side Pot: 6710

Pre-flop:
23%
77%

Post-flop:
24%
76%

Turn:
Pre-flop:
32%
68%

Expected Value for AA pre-flop: 0.77*6710=5167

Combined Expected Value for AA pre-flop with 3 people in the pot: 1906+5167=7073



Alternative - if villain had folded to a shove: 2685
Pre-flop (all-in):
7%
92%

Expected Value for AA pre-flop: 0.92*2685=2470




So the price of avoiding that 25% risk of busting out, in the long run on average is like 4600 chips (7073-2470) for a hand like this.

I suppose maybe there's room to take a few more risks if the two people left to act have smaller stacks (which would eliminate that risk of going bust)? Mostly I play PSO, but on the weekends sometimes I venture out and try new things ... I want to make sure I play the best way for each situation, you know?

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 06:24 PM..
 
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Tue Jun 21, 2011, 02:59 AM
(#14)
godofcricket's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 49
So poker is more luck than skill.. isnt it? especially against maniacs..
Shove with AA .. thats suicide.. better fold it!!!!!!!!
even if you shove they will call you .. damn sure!

Last edited by godofcricket; Tue Jun 21, 2011 at 03:02 AM..
 
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?? - Tue Jun 21, 2011, 07:58 AM
(#15)
monkeyskunk4's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,818
Hay cricket- i am curious- are you this negative when playing your grasshopper matches- attitude is just as- or more important- in poker, as it is in all endeavors----
 
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Tue Jun 21, 2011, 12:03 PM
(#16)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofcricket View Post
So poker is more luck than skill.. isnt it? especially against maniacs..
Shove with AA .. thats suicide.. better fold it!!!!!!!!
even if you shove they will call you .. damn sure!

Yes poker is demonstrably more about luck than skill. Hell if they could just surgically remove that horseshoe from Phil Ivey's ass then everyone else would have a chance....


zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 
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Tue Jun 21, 2011, 02:07 PM
(#17)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
He can't get it in preflop, he's only allowed to call. (His raise size is 420, and the short stack is only making it 325 more, not enough to qualify as a minimum reraise).

The raise sizing to 570 is really bad, for exactly this reason. When you have a short stack in the blinds like you do here, you want to raise just enough that if he ships it will be enough to at least min-raise and reopen the betting so you can raise again should the BB try and tag along. A raise to a max of 520 to go accomplishes this. If you usually open less for your standard though (2.5x-3x typically) I would just go with that in this spot.
 
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Tue Jun 21, 2011, 02:25 PM
(#18)
!!!111Dan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,290
That is just great info on the min. raise requirement there Dave.
 

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