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Live MTT Hand situation, thoughts?

 
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Live MTT Hand situation, thoughts? - Sat Jun 25, 2011, 07:00 PM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I recently played a live home game MTT amongst friends.
Buy in was $20, and there were 13 runners.
3 paid, in a standard 50%/30%/20% divison.
Start stacks were 3k, blinds went up every 20 minutes, and started at 5/10.

I have a question to pose to the folks out there...

What do you do here?

Situation:

10 players remaining, 5 at each table. FT will consolidate play at 9.
Blinds = 100/200
Break occurs in 3 minutes, after which blinds move to 200/400, and levels go to 15 minutes.

You = 2100 chips, in BB. (200 posted, 1900 behind)

Villain #1, stack approximately 4100:
A young woman player (~late 20's/early 30's) exhibiting pretty loose/passive tendencies.
Estimated VPiP/PFR = 50/5

You have noted a pretty rock solid tell on her play- she will bet the minimum on any less than top pair hand, checks just about all draws (although will tend to call small-ish bets one very WEAK gut shot and over card draws at times), and will bet above minimum (between aobut 33% and 66% of pot usually) on top pair/any kicker hands and above.

Villain #2, stack approximately 2300 (in SB):
A young male player (mid to late 20's), who has shown VERY loose calling standards.
Estimated VPiP/PFR = 66/2

You have noted that he will tend to check/raise if he holds a strong hand (2 pr+), and will generally call on top pr/weak hands. He will NOT release suited or connectors up to 1 gap'pers pre-flop, unless there is a large bet made (3x BB+), and simply will not release any A pre-flop short of being put all in.

You hold Jc7c.

ACTION:
UTG folds
Villain #1 (utg +1) limps for 200 (pot = 500)
BTN FOLDS
Villain #2 (SB) calls 100 (pot = 600)
YOU hold Jc7c and check your option.

FLOP Kc 8c 3d

You CHECK
Villain #1 bets 500 (pot = 1100)
Villain #2 thinks a while, and FOLDS.

What do you do next?

Last edited by JDean; Sat Jun 25, 2011 at 07:04 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 25, 2011, 09:28 PM
(#2)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Just go all in man why wouldnt you the blinds are about to go up and you need chips for the final table. They might fold they might call you have a really strong hand so either way your most likely going to win.
 
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Sat Jun 25, 2011, 09:29 PM
(#3)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Its obviously a bluff because your playing tight and they noticed that.
 
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Sat Jun 25, 2011, 09:32 PM
(#4)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
If your read is right, she must have at Least Kings.

You should Fold

 
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Sat Jun 25, 2011, 09:34 PM
(#5)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Oh I misread it I thought you flopped a flush lol
 
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Sat Jun 25, 2011, 09:36 PM
(#6)
pokerstar671's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,206
Id like to see what others have to say but I dont know either go all in or fold. If you have been playing tight they might notice it and chicken out if you go all in.
 
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Sat Jun 25, 2011, 10:04 PM
(#7)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
I'm folding here even with the blind jump coming,here's my reasoning...

Villain #1 has been seeing half the flops but almost never raising so she has a wide range that she could be seeing this flop with. And Bill is right, according to her observed post-flop actions the most consistent line is for her to be holding a king here,kicker doesn't really matter to me.

Villain #2's post flop action tells me that he very well could have been contemplating a call with a weak flush draw,which with a 66% VPIP would fit easily within his calling range pre-flop. So if that's the case he just folded 2 of your outs.

To me calling isn't an option here,if you're going to continue it should be a jam and hope that her inexperience can get her to lay down a weak king. If she doesn't at least you have the flush draw,but that may be a little thinner draw than optimal,given that Villain #2 may have tossed 2 clubs.

So my play would be a fold,but if I were to continue it would be for a jam and ride the semi-bluff.

Calling is out in this hand for me.
 
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Sun Jun 26, 2011, 01:19 AM
(#8)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
You know what she has. Do you know if she's willing to fold it? Doesn't sound like it, just checking.

To me #2's thinking sounds more like 2nd pair or even a real weak top pair.

I'd fold here. You have a pretty weak draw for the situation. You're basically drawing to 9 outs and in a spot with little fold equity. And if you call you've committed to the pot so I would think about it as you putting in 1900 to win 600+1900, or 1.3 to 1 odds needed. You'll make your flush draw about 36% of the time.

Actually, let's look at it in terms of EV. Let x be the percentage of the time she folds. Your EV is approximately:

x*(1100) +(1-x)((.35)(2500)+(.65)(-1900))

Setting that equal to zero gives x = 24.6% So as long as you think she'll fold over 25% of the time it should be +EV to shove. Against a range of 33, 88, KK, AA, K2+, 83, we have about 35% equity.

Now this is just pure EV. With such a strong read on her you should be able to find a more profitable spot in the future. I know you only have 9 BBs, but I'd prefer to have some sort of 2-way draw before shoving into a loose player who has shown strength. If I had J3 clubs here the money would all be going in the middle in a flash. I'd probably even get it in with Ax clubs. With J3c we have about 46% equity, with Axc we have about 42%.

In our current situation we need about 25% fold equity just to break even, and I just don't think she'll give us that. I hate it, but I'm folding here.
 
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Sun Jun 26, 2011, 01:54 AM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,798
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
sounds like a weak K to me.... K without a top kicker.

I'd call, hope to hit a club. If so, let them bet themselves into the ground. If not, you can get out and still have some chips left.
 
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Sun Jun 26, 2011, 10:24 AM
(#10)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
I thought you just wanted to know what you should do next ?

Which is why I said fold.

But people are reasoning the play.

So here is my reasoning, based on your 'solid read'.

She is Loose and Passive, therefore unlikely to Bluff when someone other than BB is in the pot with her and she is SB.

She is UTG+1 and limps, She therefore does not have AA or KK but could very easily have AK , AQ KQ suited or not, or pocket pairs below Kings.

Flop comes Kc 8c 3d She bets 500, 100 short of the pot. She wants to take this pot down NOW, but being passive is unwilling to go all in, in case she loses.

There is no Straight draw on the board the only hands are Club flush draw, two pair or a set.

If you have checked your option preflop, then you must be BB as villain #2 is SB.

Therefore Villain #2(SB) must also have checked post flop in order for you to check.

Villain #1 must hold at least a King to bet, if you have read correctly. 500 is a big bet, therefore she will be holding AK or KQ suited, JK suited is a small possibility but unlikely.

She is a little afraid of a Flush draw, but could be holding Ac alongside her King.

She could easily have the same read as you on villain#2, hence the 500 bet. She wants to know if he is holding an Ace, if he is he will call or raise as you are to act behind him and as BB you could be holding ATC, as you checked into the pot, but are very unlikely to be holding much as you never raised preflop, but on the off chance you are holding AA that size bet will elicit that information,( your 'read' though suggests that Villain#2 would bet an ace post flop with that board, if only to find out if someone had a King). Therefore the 500 bet is aimed primarily at you.

For you to push at this point, you would need to have a positive read on whether or not she will fold Top/top to a check shove
 
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Sun Jun 26, 2011, 01:36 PM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Nice replies, TY!

I'll end the suspence and tell you what I actually thought, and did, in the hand.

I check/raised for my entire stack. I failed to turn or river a club, and I was out.

I decided on this course of action, but I WAS aware of the things Bill Curran et al brought up regarding the strength of read telling me I was well behind (I was, Villain held K8o, for top 2 pr). The thing about "committment decisions" is the more SURE you are behind, the less likely you should be to commit even a tiny stack. This means I definately do "see" what Bill Curran was driving at: I KNEW I was facing at least a K, and I KNEW I was drawing to 9 outs at best, and maybe 8. I still went for it...

Factor #1: TIME
I had a view of the tourney clock (on a lap top just to my right behind the table), and the fact the blinds were escalating were a MONSTER consideration. Villian #1 had the 2nd biggest stack at our table, and the next level up would move her to just 10BB. I didn't mention it, but the UTG guy had around 8500, and BTN had roughly 3000, so that next level increased signalled a SEVERE drop in overall fold equity at the table (because 4 of 5 would be under 12BB).

I saw little hope as well in exercising any kind of realistic "push and pray" at a massively short stacked table with a big calling station to my immediate left entering most pots.

Factor #2: MY READ
While the read I had made it almost a "sure thing" I was behind, and while it also made it almost impossible that a neo-phyte player like Villain #1 would FOLD to my jam, it also meant that I could almost totally rule out the chance I was facing a STRONGER flush draw than my 3rd nut draw. This meant that if I elect to gamble on the draw, and I hit it, I am almost a lock to win.
I say this because...

A) I ruled out KK.
Villain #1 had raised 3 hands total throughout the night- AK, QQ, 99. She min raised the 99.
Her limp means she doesn't hold KK (note: the opponents were not sophisticated enough to vary their play)

B) 88/33 are my "worst case" fears
The problem with standing on a flush draw is not the fact that Villain #2 MAY have folded 2 clubs (per Moxie Pip). ALL "unknown" cards are precisely equal insofar as they are UNKNOWN. Discounting outs because an opponent might have folded 2 of 'em that you did not see is the equivalent of discounting outs because you "know" 2 clubs have a strong possibility of being at the very bottom of the deck (thus impossible to hit the board). See? The 2 cards villain #2 mucked were "as unknown" as the bottom 2 cards in the deck, so without some additional info saying he DID fold clubs (such as a verbal declaration, which would be a rules violation), you cannot "assume" he folded 2 clubs.

The real problem is: how STRONG is the made hand she is betting on, and is it strong enough to draw out if I DO make the flush?

88 is a bit less likely than 33, as I feel Villain #1 may have made a small raise with this hand. This is not rock solid though. 33 is highly likely as a "threat hand" with re-draw shots, and also as a hand which would "burn" some of my flush draw outs. As a TINY part of her potential range though, I am pretty secure making my flush will give me a winner.

I really do not care about and top pair or 2 pr hands, because I KNOW I am behind already.

Factor #3: POT ODDS

Without any realistic chance she is folding after betting 500 into the 600 pot, Villain #2 made my calculations VERY simple.

The remaining chips I had were 1900.
If I jam, I am risking that amount for the chance to win 1900 + 600 additional chips.

Realisiticly, this is not ENOUGH return to justify the little bit over 1/3rd chance I had to win; I really needed more like 2 to 1 rather than 1.3 to 1 to call. What tilted it into a JAM and STAND for me was the previous 2 factors listed; I simply did not believe I had the "time", nor favorable enough situations with my 10% stack depletion (should I fold my blind), to wait on a better spot.
I saw the hand as this: "If I hit I will have 4400 and some measure of life, but if I fold I have very little chance of getting a better shot."

I think this is the highly "personal" aspect of this hand, and it all comes down to your risk acceptance decision process. I really cannot say for sure if I'd do the same thing again, since it was not a +eV play in the strictest terms, but the way I viewed it at the time was that folding wasn;t really good eV either.

This means I cannot dis-agree with any who said fold, but it is a lot CLOSER decision that the "numbers" may indicate when ALL factors are considered. One thing is for sure though, I have to agree 100% with the Pip-ster: this was a total JAM or FOLD spot, no way I could have afforded a call.

thanks all for the replies!
 

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