Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions / Old Hand Analysis Section /

How do i not go broke here????

 
Old
Exclamation
How do i not go broke here???? - Sat Jul 02, 2011, 06:12 AM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hi just wondering if you would have played this different.(THANKS)


PokerStars Game #63998735038: Tournament #409721540, $3.19+$0.31 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2011/07/01 8:03:16 ET
Table '409721540 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: caspi2 (15800 in chips)
Seat 2: MAFFIP (3185 in chips)
Seat 3: li8888 (10185 in chips)
Seat 4: DooooooooooK (2895 in chips)
Seat 6: kiliwatu (3000 in chips)
Seat 7: HAMAU (8765 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: Antonio0077 (2825 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: chuckkky (3155 in chips)
caspi2: posts small blind 50
MAFFIP: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to chuckkky [Kd Kc]
li8888: calls 100
DooooooooooK: folds
kiliwatu: folds
HAMAU: folds
Antonio0077: folds
chuckkky: raises 400 to 500
caspi2: folds
MAFFIP: folds
li8888: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [Kh Qh Jh]
li8888: checks
chuckkky: bets 500
li8888: raises 9185 to 9685 and is all-in
chuckkky: calls 2155 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (7030) returned to li8888
*** TURN *** [Kh Qh Jh] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [Kh Qh Jh 3c] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
li8888: shows [Tc Ac] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
chuckkky: shows [Kd Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
li8888 collected 6460 from pot
 
Old
Default
Sat Jul 02, 2011, 07:49 AM
(#2)
PlsDntBlffMe's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 42
Post Deleted

Last edited by PlsDntBlffMe; Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 01:39 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sat Jul 02, 2011, 11:54 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Pls... you forgot a few other hands.
That type of board is about the only one that I'd even consider folding a set to. There are both a broadway straight available and with 3 hearts, there is a heart flush, even a royal, possible. With that big of a push, the opponent most likely has one or the other, which means that you're behind (but with a number of outs for quads or a full house).

Early in a PSO tourney, I'd muck the set there. If it was later in the tourney (after you're getting positive points), then I'd be calling it too.
 
Old
Default
Sat Jul 02, 2011, 01:52 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Got any reads on this player?

I don't really think anyone is shoving a royal flush here at this level. They will definitely want to show it down. Other straights and flushes are totally possible though. The thing is, you have top set! Top set is an amazing hand in a spot like this and here's why:

Even if he's only shoving big value hands here, let's say sets or better, let's see how your KK fares:

We have JJ and QQ drawing dead to quads, and we have 7 outs on the turn and 10 outs on the river to outdraw the straights and flushes. We are drawing dead against ATh and T9h. Against a range of [JJ, QQ, ATo, A2h-A9h, ATs, T8h-T9h, 97h-98h, 86h-87h, 76h-75h, 65h] we are just shy of 40% to win the hand. Would this player shove two pair hands or even something like AhKx/Qx/Jx as a semibluff? If I add the AK, AQ, AJ with the Ah and KQ and KJ to their range we rise to 45% against their range. Maybe they would not shove these hands, but we should definitely consider them as possibilities. Also, maybe he doesn't actually have that many flushes in his range.

Now let's check the pot odds. Before your flop bet the pot is 1150. You've put in 500 of your 3155 chips. You bet 500 on the flop, which is a really tiny bet, less than 1/2 the pot. And then he raises you all in, a bet of 2655, and it's 2155 more to call. The pot is 4305 and it's 2155 more to you, which gives you odds of almost exactly 2 to 1. This means you need to win just over 1/3 of the time to make a call here +EV. Since you can expect to win at least 40% of the time against his estimated range, I think you have to call. You've already dumped 1/3 of your stack into this hand and with top set you need to be prepared to take it all the way, even if you are behind. You draw out too often and an early double up is hugely advantageous.

The only way you don't go broke here is if you're a total nit. You have to call. If he shows me his cards I might still call. Against ATc I have 34% equity which is just barely +EV. High variance to be sure, but +EV. My goal is to win the tournament, not survive until the middle stages. This isn't PSO where you lose points for busting early.

Last edited by oriholic; Sat Jul 02, 2011 at 01:54 PM..
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 03, 2011, 12:12 AM
(#5)
PlsDntBlffMe's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 42
Post Deleted

Last edited by PlsDntBlffMe; Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 01:42 PM..
 
Old
Default
Mon Jul 04, 2011, 05:08 PM
(#6)
Horrible68's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by PlsDntBlffMe View Post
You're ahead of everything on the flop except for the hand he had AT (where you at least have outs and 28% chance to improve if you were to call) and AhTh / Th9h (in which case you're drawing dead) making the chance that he has a better hand than you is roughly 1% [17 (16 AT + Th9h) / 1326(possible preflop hands)].
You can't count odds this way as Villain cannot have all possible preflop hands at this point - he is not going to check/push Tc4h here. What you need to do is to divide the number of "bad" hands with the number of hands in his range. Your best bet is to go with the Odds Calculator.

As for the OP: I go broke here every time, but I would probably bet more to prize out draws - that is the mother of scary boards.
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com