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Was I right or wrong??

 
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Was I right or wrong?? - Sun Jul 03, 2011, 12:52 PM
(#1)
CAM5225's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 8
BronzeStar
I had the following:

9c 8c

flop comes down as

5h 7c 10c

So I have an open ended straight draw and a possible flush draw and I have position, I think I am in great shape. I re-raise after the flop, as I was aggressive before and I'm trying to protect my hand. He goes all in, I call.

The pot had $8.53 it was $6.48 for me to call.

WAS I RIGHT TO CALL or did I make a mistake with my Pot Odds & Outs ???

Turn & River came down as

8h & 4s

He had pocket Tens.

I just want to know if I made the right decision and was just unlucky OR DID I MAKE A MISTAKE??

Many thanks
CAM
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 01:54 PM
(#2)
PlsDntBlffMe's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 42
Post Deleted

Last edited by PlsDntBlffMe; Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 01:46 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 04:30 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
A strong 2 way draw can certainly be "good enough" to re-raise.
The question you have to ask is: Is that the BEST play I can make?

First, you must have a realistic expectation that by making EITHER of your draws, you will hold the best hand. That possibility exists more strongly if you held something like KTc on an Qc Jc flop, than the one you see here. But if there is reasonably heavy action pre-flop, and the flop does come as shown in this hand, you can still feel pretty sure making your straight or flush will tend to give you a winner.

This means the second thing to consider is the chance your 2 way draw has to win versus the various "threat hands":

Versus 2nd or 3rd pair on flop:
~67/33 in your favor (depending on the suits of his hand, and whether he holds a single higher Club) TO WIN.
Versus top pair on the flop:
~55/45 in your favor (depending up suits in his hand, and whether he holds a single higher Club)
Versus bottom 2 pair on the flop:
~51.5/48.5 in your favor (depending upon him holding a Club, to "steal" 1 of your outs)
Versus top 2 pair on the flop:
~51.2/48.8 in your favor (he cannot hold a club to steal one of your outs)
Versus ANY Set on the flop:
~57.9/42.1 AGAINST you (depending on if he has 55 with a 5c)

Now...

As you can see, versus these strong MADE HANDS, you are really not in very bad shape overall.
While you do have to hit one of your outs to win, your mathematical chances of doing so are pretty strong. Ironically, about the biggest "threat" hands to you are the pretty WEAK all-in hands, like un-paired over card flush draws like AKc (~56.8% favored), and A5c for bottom pair/nut flush draw, (~56.1% favored).

Based on these factors there are WORSE things you can do than get 'em all in when you have a pretty decent chance of being "ahead" by the math. The question still remains: do you necessarily WANT to rush your chips in without a made hand?

The thing to consider in this spot to get to the answer you seek is the SIZE of your stack in relation to the blinds.

This relates to your personal "risk acceptance" behaviors, and your personal desire to lower your variance. Me, I am pretty risk accepting, so with $8+ to win, and facing a call of about $6, I'm making that call almost ALL the time. Whether or not I play the 98s "aggressively", thus getitng myself into the position to call for all my chips, is a COMPLETELY different story, but once there, I'm going for it. If that is your last $6, or if you feel you have a HUGE skill edge (it would have to be huge to pass up these edges) on your table, then you might fold your strong draw here, but that would be pretty rare.

The question you don't ask, "How did I get myself into this predicament with just 98s" is the REALLY improtant one though...

By the time you are here, and you do see that flop, it is a pretty simple decision.
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 05:07 PM
(#4)
CAM5225's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 8
BronzeStar
JD, thanks for the very comprehensive analysis, it was extremely helpful.

I've just worked out how to use the Hand Analysis playback function and watched it back.... what an idiot..... I didn't have position at all, I started as the Big Blind. I called his raise, flop came down, I did a continuation bet of half the pot, he came over the top, I came over the top of that, he came over me again, I followed suit with an even bigger bet and then he went all in and I called.... DOH!!!

It's so strange how I remembered the hand playing out and how it ACTUALLY played out, clearly I should have folded after he came over me the 2nd time... the alarm bells should have been ringing LOUDLY.

Your right of course I shouldn't have got myself in that position in the first place but I guess it's a small comfort that as I did, I at least had the balls to go for it and hell it could have paid off but I was unlucky.

Rough day for me I also went all in, short stacked with a pair of Kings and got beaten by a pair of Sevens, that turned into a Full House!

Hey ho..... tomorrow is another day and I learnt loads today.

Many thanks
CAM
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 05:59 PM
(#5)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAM5225 View Post
JD, thanks for the very comprehensive analysis, it was extremely helpful.

I've just worked out how to use the Hand Analysis playback function and watched it back.... what an idiot..... I didn't have position at all, I started as the Big Blind. I called his raise, flop came down, I did a continuation bet of half the pot, he came over the top, I came over the top of that, he came over me again, I followed suit with an even bigger bet and then he went all in and I called.... DOH!!!

It's so strange how I remembered the hand playing out and how it ACTUALLY played out, clearly I should have folded after he came over me the 2nd time... the alarm bells should have been ringing LOUDLY.

Your right of course I shouldn't have got myself in that position in the first place but I guess it's a small comfort that as I did, I at least had the balls to go for it and hell it could have paid off but I was unlucky.

Rough day for me I also went all in, short stacked with a pair of Kings and got beaten by a pair of Sevens, that turned into a Full House!

Hey ho..... tomorrow is another day and I learnt loads today.

Many thanks
CAM
Before you go beating yourself up about the call, there's nothing wrong with taking a flop from the BB to a single raise with a 98s when you're deep stacked. Since you mentioned that there was a 4 bet before the money got in on the flop, that's the case. On that flop you are favored to win in every scenario that doesn't include facing a set. Sets are rare, so odds are you aren't (the fact you were is irrelevant). Winning at this game is about getting your money in good when you have the best of it. Often enough when you flop an OESFD, you have exactly that. Get it in, you're right even on those occasions when you lose.
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 06:45 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSgtBakes View Post
On that flop you are favored to win in every scenario that doesn't include facing a set.
Incorrect.

He is a "math dog" also to AKc (and KQc, or any 2 clubs which are both overs to the 9c), and A5c (or any club suited 5, J+). Versus top 2 though, it is almost a 50/50 coin flip.

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jul 03, 2011 at 06:49 PM..
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 10:37 PM
(#7)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
FFS what is with these crying bad beat storys? obviously its a call, well ur obv not folding are you? so what you missed........

i know i sound like a jerk but seriously every grinder goes thru 1000000000X worse than this

my advice put in more hours

sweet goodluck

Last edited by Oku_Ha_FooLs; Mon Jul 25, 2011 at 10:39 PM.. Reason: spell check
 

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