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Flush draw on the flop

 
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Flush draw on the flop - Sun Jul 03, 2011, 07:21 PM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913



Hi my read on the BB was fairly tight up to this stage, Although a couple hands later he raises the pot with Q 10 os and gets reraised and calls all in to get a split pot against KQ os.
As for this hand i was putting him on top pair or maybe a small set (or could he be just trying to steal the pot)? Look forward to your thoughts thanks.
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 08:41 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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In most all cases, raising KTs from UTG in an MTT is a bit too loose. The reason for this is pretty simple: you just saw what happened.

You raise, get flatted by the short stacks SB, and the larger stacked BB.

You flop "ok", ut hardly great for your hand, and one of the Villains jam. You cannot call, because the pot odds are jsut not there.

So for this hand, you DID do exactly the right thing with your flush draw: fold to the shove, rather than risk about half your stack.

The problem with your play here was entering at all...

KTs is what is known as a "trouble hand".
A trouble hand is any hand which tends to make your decisions very difficult in certain situations.
You really want as much info as you can get to help you play hands with which your decisions will tend to be harder.

Entering out of postion as you are here, means you will tend to have less of a chance to have EVERYONE fold to you; the more folks you who must fold, the harder it will be to get them all to fold, see? If they do not fold to you, then you are going to have to play out the hand with less information than you'd have had you raised in position (if they call your raise), and that makes your decisions a lot harder to turn into profit.

Also...

KTs is hard to play in a lot of spots, especially after you've raised and been called, because:

1) when it flops top pair K it will have a pretty weak kicker,
2) when it flops a top pair T (with 2nd kicker) the chance is greater someone called the raise with an over pair to the Ts,
3) when it flops a flush draw it will not always be the NUT flush draw (but will tend to be pretty strong), and
4) it will not very often flop an 8 out straight draw.

Any of these situations can cause to to put more chips into the pot with a good, but 2nd best, hand; THOSE are the "most expensive" hands in poker! If you lack the information you could have, you may end up making a "mistake" when someone does NOT make your decision as easy as the guy does here (by shoving into you).

BTW...

Unless this guy had shoved quite often, I seriously doubt he holds a truly "big" hand, like a set. It is more likely he has caught something like bottom 2 pair, or top pair/marginal kicker (like QJ), or even something liek AA/KK/QQ. If he did believe you might call somewhat weaker than a set, that increases the chances he'd jam that big, but without that info, he probably had a hand that you MIGHT have been able to draw out on, OR he might have been on an airball bluff.

...that doesn't change the fact his jam made it far too expensive for you to find out!

Good Fold.
 
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Sun Jul 03, 2011, 09:16 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Raising with K10s from UTG at this stage in the tournement is a bit loose. Although, if you are going to play the hand, I like the raise.

On the flop, yes, you do have a flush draw and one over card. Unless they have AJ of spades, you have between 8 and 12 outs. That means that you have a win percentage between 32 - 48%. The opponent bet 3060 into a pot of 1350 which means that you will need to be a 69% favorite to break even on this hand in the long run. Since the odds say you will win between 32-48%, which is far less than 69%, you need to fold.

You made the correct play by folding.
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 02:03 PM
(#4)
Horrible68's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
The opponent bet 3060 into a pot of 1350 which means that you will need to be a 69% favorite to break even on this hand in the long run.
I have to question your math here. The pot is laying odds of 1.44 : 1 which means that he will need a 41% chance. I think the real problem with calling is that we just don't know how many outs we have.
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 02:12 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Yeah, JWK, you messed up your math somehow. You never ever need to be more than a 50% favourite to make any call ever in Hold'em, because even without a pot in the center of the table, you're never being laid odds that are worse than even money (e.g. some guy bets T100, you'll never be charged more than T100 to call, ergo, no more than 50% pot equity is ever required to make a breakeven/profitable call).

Because you don't have the nut flush draw, Your flush outs must be discounted. But we can't be sure what the villain is jamming with, so Horrible is right; we don't have the necessary information to calculate our outs. We can make a guess, but it sucks to place your tournament life on an uneducated guess.
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 03:07 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hero must call 3060 to win 4410.

Pot odds on this call are: 1.44 to 1

You must win 1 time in 2.44 tries to break even.

About 41% of the time. (Horrible is correct).

I'm sure JWK took the inverse of this, and arrived at 69% needed to win.

Realistically, 41% still denies odds to a "naked" 9 out flush draw. A 9 out flush draw will hit is roughly 35% on the turn OR the river.

Since this is an all-in situation, you would get maximum chance from that 35%, since you will see the turn and river. The pot odds are simply not there to make the call.

NOW...

If you were "certain" the SB Short stack will call along as well, that would add roughly 1050 chips to the pot, making your odds calc look like:

3060 to win 5460 = 1.78 to 1
You'd need about 35.9% chance to win to make a call "ok" froma pure eV standpoint.
This would be right about the "right price" for your flush draw, since if your draw is "good" against 1 opponent, it will almost as often be good against 2.
I would STILL argue against a call...

First:
Unlike cash game play, simple chip equity is NOT the only factor you must consider in tourney play. You must also calculate the cost to your chances of making it ITM, or the cost to you "running deep" to where the big prizes are at, of a LOSS. You must rember, calling on a draw here leaves you only making the best hand as a way to win; you WILL "miss" right around 2 times in 3...

Next:
As stated by Horrible, you also must be concerned here by the "quality" of your draw. Is a K high flush, should you make it, going to be "good enough", and/or do you have your FULL 9 outs at which to draw to derive the 35% chance to win you need to make this the right price?

In heads up situations, you generally need not concern yourself overly much with a single spade being held by you opponent. The fact he has or hasn't got a spade is usually "un-knowable", therefore is not something you can control. The only accounting for a "burnt out" you;d really need to make is a down grade of your win chances from about 35% to around 32% or 33% in CASE a HU opponent holds 1 spade.

A check/call of a shove by the short stack SB though brings the chance that the SB IS on a flush draw sharply into the realm of possibilities. Even if you are "ahead" of his flush draw (if he has one), you have 2 "burnt" outs, and are drawing to only 7 cards, not 9. Also, since you hodl the non-nut flush draw, there is a chance the SB (or even the BB shover) holds the Ax flush draw for a BETTER flush draw. This range of possibilities should cause you to DISCOUNT your overall chances to win by a pretty significant amount over the "base" 35% of a simple flush draw.

So...

There really is NO situation here where you are likely to be getting a "good" price to call.
A LOSS is going to cost you almost half your stack, and while you'd still ahve above 20BB to paly on, 40BB+ is far BETTER for your chances to money deep.

This one is a clear fold.
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 03:53 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Realistically, 41% still denies odds to a "naked" 9 out flush draw. A 9 out flush draw will hit is roughly 35% on the turn OR the river...

...If you were "certain" the SB Short stack will call along as well, that would add roughly 1050 chips to the pot...

...Unlike cash game play, simple chip equity is NOT the only factor you must consider in tourney play. You must also calculate the cost to your chances of making it ITM...

...As stated by Horrible, you also must be concerned here by the "quality" of your draw. Is a K high flush, should you make it, going to be "good enough", and/or do you have your FULL 9 outs at which to draw to derive the 35% chance to win you need to make this the right price?
1) You don't need to be certain that the SB will call. Just guess how often they will, and add that percent multiplied by their stack to the pot to estimate the final pot, and your overall pot odds to call. If you think the SB will call 25% of the time, then it's not a bad shortcut to simply add an imaginary T250 to the pot, and recalculate your odds.

2) Simple chip equity is usually good enough. If we're talking about a league game, then there's a difference. But if it's a regular freezeout, then just worry about chip equity until the final few tables and you'll be fine.

3) Like I said before, you don't need to be certain that you have the best flush draw. Just cut down your outs to reflect the loss you'll suffer if you're overflushed when you call. This is tricky and I don't know exactly how far to discount your flush outs, but let's say for this scenario you can reduce your flush outs from 9 to 4.

You're still not good to call, but these are shortcuts that you can use at the table to help adjust odds and equity calculations at the table in your head.
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 04:15 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
1) You don't need to be certain that the SB will call. Just guess how often they will, and add that percent multiplied by their stack to the pot to estimate the final pot, and your overall pot odds to call. If you think the SB will call 25% of the time, then it's not a bad shortcut to simply add an imaginary T250 to the pot, and recalculate your odds.
You do need to be CERTAIN he will call in order to derive the "proper" price to call with a 35% chance to win. If the SB will not call, even 1% of the time, then you cannot "assume" you get the 1.75 to 1 you "need", rather than the 1.44 to 1 you've got.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
2) Simple chip equity is usually good enough. If we're talking about a league game, then there's a difference. But if it's a regular freezeout, then just worry about chip equity until the final few tables and you'll be fine.
Since you cannot "re-load" chips in a tourney situation, you MUST recognize that a LOSS of any chips already accumulated has a negative effect upon your overall tourney equity.

I do NOT advocate going into deep ICM calcs short of the final table, but a simple recognition that the fact you will LOSE about half your stack roughly 2/3rds of the time WILL negatively effect your ability to "run deep", is enough to know you really should seek more than the bare "minimum" price needed to call.

If the all in shove were a TINY portion of your stack, say in this spot you must call 3060 and you hold 50k to 100k, then "worry" about the loss is minimal; even a loss would still leave you with a massive chip advantage on your entire table.

But you stand to lose nearly half your stack here, and go from chip leader to 3rd or 4th stack. that "loss" will VASTLY effect your ability to run deeply in this event, and must be accounted for by seeking a far larger "overlay" than the bare minimum pot odds to call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
3) Like I said before, you don't need to be certain that you have the best flush draw. Just cut down your outs to reflect the loss you'll suffer if you're overflushed when you call. This is tricky and I don't know exactly how far to discount your flush outs, but let's say for this scenario you can reduce your flush outs from 9 to 4.

You're still not good to call, but these are shortcuts that you can use at the table to help adjust odds and equity calculations at the table in your head.
I think the major "dis-connect" we have here is that you mis-interpretted my intent of using the words "you need".

Yes, all these factors can be weighed, such as the chance the SB will call along in the pot, or the chance your K hi flush is going to be "good" if it hits. But since this WAS a situation where the price was not "correct" to call, even if ALL situations were otherwise "normally" favorable (Your flush draw is a near "lock" if it wins, shover bluffs a ton so there is a decent chance K hi is "good" without improvement, etc), you NEED certain things to be "true"...

The fact you are only getting, at absolute maximum, the bare MINIMUM correct price to call along here WITH THE SB IN AS WELL, means that the pot ods are jsut not quite there to call.

To put this much of my stack at risk on a draw, I'd need to be getting more along the lines of 2.5 or 3 to 1 to call, not 1.78 to 1 at max, and certainly not 1.44 to 1!
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 04:28 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I was just saying that when you're contemplating decisions that have complex statistical variables, like calling all-in with what might be a 9-out draw or a 0-out draw, you can find middle ground and shouldn't auto-assume that you have 9 or 0 when you can't possibly know.

Regarding the 'running deep' equity, if you lose 2/3 of your stack, that does impact your ability to run deep. But if it's a typical freezeout, it doesn't matter, because the chips you stand to gain are worth that risk. Your 'running deep' equity goes up enough in the cases you win for it not to matter when you lose. It all balances out. The only time when that's not true is when there are ICM considerations (i.e late game play) or if the structure isn't standard (e.g. a league game).
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 05:07 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I was just saying that when you're contemplating decisions that have complex statistical variables, like calling all-in with what might be a 9-out draw or a 0-out draw, you can find middle ground and shouldn't auto-assume that you have 9 or 0 when you can't possibly know.

Regarding the 'running deep' equity, if you lose 2/3 of your stack, that does impact your ability to run deep. But if it's a typical freezeout, it doesn't matter, because the chips you stand to gain are worth that risk. Your 'running deep' equity goes up enough in the cases you win for it not to matter when you lose. It all balances out. The only time when that's not true is when there are ICM considerations (i.e late game play) or if the structure isn't standard (e.g. a league game).
Panicky...

come on vent if you dont get what I mean when I try again, ok?

You KNOW if you call you will lose 2/3rds of the time, no matter WHAT.
That means 2/3rds the time you will LOSE, right price or not.
If you can re-load, that loss is immaterial; you just add to your stack and try to get 'em back.

If you are gunna lose half your tack that often though, you NEED a better return to make the RISK worthwhile to take that kind of hit.

In MTT play, the value of each chip you have DECREASES as the amount of chips you have increases.

So winning x amount, x% of the time is NOT the same as having that situation in a cash game. Losing the amount you lose, if it is a good portion of your stack, is more harmful to you than the chips you MIGHT WIN are benficial to you...see?
 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 05:19 PM
(#11)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I understand what you're saying, and I think that the amount is just irrelevantly small until you near final tables. So, in application, you really don't need extra equity. In theory, you need a little, but it's not worth worrying about. That's my understanding of the theory.
 

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