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FINAL TABLE of 180 players

 
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FINAL TABLE of 180 players - Mon Jul 04, 2011, 09:03 PM
(#1)
chuckkky's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 913
Hi 10 hands before this one i was the chip leader with $62,600 with 5 players at the table.
My cards
Qh 5h Hartz eliminates 5th player
Kc 4d
8s 5s
9s 2s
Kc 2h
6h 6c in the BB with a raise a call and a all in by Hartz everyone folds to him
maybe i should of called here they might of all had Aces.???
6h 8d Hartz eliminates 4th player
Tc 4c
5c 8h
I have folded every hand to someone raising. I was loosing chips fast
My theory was may be i could get him to fold and then when i get a real hand he might doulble me up. Should i have waited longer?
Look Forward to your thoughts.


 
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Mon Jul 04, 2011, 09:21 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I think that you should adjust your perception of what a 'real hand' is. On short stacks, the criteria for 'real hands' loosen up. 3-handed, they loosen up even more. We'd need to know more about the villain here to figure out if shoving here was good, bad, or in between, but it's not that bad against your average player. If he was willing to minraise/stack off Q9s though, then reshoving kings looks like a pretty decent move. He may have beaten you, but you were shoving for value there, not as a bluff.

ahar, Cowboy, or Cookies would be good to ask about this particular hand. They all have good super-shorthanded experience.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon Jul 04, 2011 at 09:23 PM..
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 12:32 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
reads are optimal here. If you think that your opp is capable of playing any 2 suited cards, then I agree with going for it. If they have been playing tight, then let them go.
You were ahead in the hand and got unlucky............ unfortunately, it happens.
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 01:54 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Final 3 in an event (as long as it isn't a single table SNG), this short, versus someone THIS loose...

I am still thinking you need a bit more than K2s.

Consider...

Your stack is on par with the other short stack.
Money jump is pretty big from 3rd to 2nd.
Both you, and the other stack are pretty much equally in need of chips to fight off the bully.

All this argues for you to play a LITTLE bit more of a "waiting game" here. Just be careful not to take it TOO FAR in waiting...

You see, you are going to HAVE to consider that your villain/bully is going to call after raising anything.
His hands shown range is SO WIDE he is feeling "bullet proof". He is going for the kill.

Break it down by ICM calcs...
270,000 in play
You hold 41765
Short Stack Villain holds 49,548
Big Stack Bully Villain holds 177,187
1500 are posted in antes.

Pre-flop, your equity in the prize pool (assuming this is a $4.40 180 man) is $125.60.
Pay out for 3rd place is $85.68.
$85.68 = 68.2% of your "expected" equity in the prize pool.

If we assume the Bully villain will fold 0% of the time to a push (he hasn't shown any real willingness to do so in the last 10 hands)...
AND...
If we assume we "need" to exceed a 50/50 chance to win versus a RANDOM RANGE by 31.8% - 1.7% = 30.1%
(Note: 1500 is posted in antes, and is "forced". That is 1.7% of the pot if we shove, and get called by Big Stack Bully Villain)

This means we must hold a hand which is ahead of a random range by 50% x 30.1% = +15.05% or...
We need a 65.05% hand to make the "risk" of busting now, versus "waiting" for the possibility of Short Stack Villain busting, worthwhile.

K2s is only 53.2% to win versus a random range, so we are CLOSE, but not quite there yet.

Any pair, any Ace (suited or off suit), or any 2 Broadway hand puts us at about 60/40, so we are closer, but still not quite there.
Tightening to any A8+ (still with any 2 broadways and any pp) takes us to 63.4%, and we are ALMOST there.
So any pp, any 2 broadways (for connected value), and any A9 or AT+ is probably right aobut where we'd want to be.

FOLDING here lowers our chip stack, and also lowers our overall equity in the remaining prize pool.
If we fold, we are left with 38765 (our stack now, minus 2500 we'd fold and 500 ante we'd post next hand).
Short Stack Villain would go to 44,048 (if we assume he folds now too).
Big Stack Bully Villain goes to 185,687 (his stack, minus 500 ante).

That changes our equity in the remaining prize pool too: $125.00.
Our shove range on the button (which we gotta figure BSV WILL call on random cards in the BB) stays pretty much the same, so folding doesn't really effect us much at all.

It is interesting that this hand came up here tonight, as I was reading of a similar situation in the Harrington on Hold 'Em GREY BOOK (vol 3) tonight.
The hand involved a shove call range in a bubble situation, with 2 evenly sized big stacks (one open shoving UTG) and 2 near even sized short stacks (under 10BB).
While not EXACTLY the same as this hand, the situation was CLOSE...

Harrington posits that the ICM calcs for that hand require a tightening of a call range to ONLY gr 1 hands (AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK), and shows the math to back that up.
I am not certain all the math here is spot on, but it does seem to me to be pretty close (at least per my "gut feel").

The HoH hand requires such a massive tightening because it is still short of the money.
This situation calls for a tightening, but not an EXTREME tightening, and I think the reason is that Hero has "locked up" a nice $85+ return already; Hero can go on PnF and still collect 68% of his total current equity.

Suffice it to say, it is a bit of a "quibble" to come out and say the Hero here was "wrong" to stand on K2s, so I will NOT go that far; afterall, he IS better than a 50/50 versus the likely random range of the shover.
It is also a bit of a quibble to complain about the Hero's play because doing these calcs "in the moment" are all but impossible.
So I'd say the Hero here DEFINATELY was on the right track with his thinking, but the math may show he went a leeeeeetle bit too far in his call range.

So well played hand, and tough luck you got run down by a worse hand.

(Note: ICM calcs courtesy of this link http://icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx )

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 02:03 AM..
 
Old
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 10:08 AM
(#5)
Horrible68's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
I'm turning into the math police, but here goes anyway. I'm basing my numbers on a $4.50 180-man SnG, so there's a slight discrepancy in the $-value.

If we want an exact calculation of the probabilities, we'll need an exact equity of the scenarios that can occur. Here they are:
  1. You fold: That will leave you with 39,264 in chips against 44,548 and 186,187. The ICM calculation gives $128.29 equity.
  2. He folds to your push: 58,264 chips vs. 44,548 and 167,187. Equity: $140.19 for a $11.90 gain.
  3. You win showdown: 90,028 vs. 44,548 and 135,422. Equity: $156.38 for a $28.09 gain.
  4. You lose showdown: You bust out in 3rd. Prize: $87.82 for a $40.47 loss.

You said that you thought he might fold, but if we simplify and assume that he always calls the expected value of pushing over folding is given by
$68.56 * p - $40.47
where p is the probability that your hand wins in a showdown.

If he is indeed playing any two cards, p is 53% for an EV of -4 dollars. The break-even point is 59%, giving a pushing range like A4s+,A8o+,55+,K9s+,KTo+,JTs+.
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 12:32 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horrible68 View Post
I'm turning into the math police, but here goes anyway. I'm basing my numbers on a $4.50 180-man SnG, so there's a slight discrepancy in the $-value.

If we want an exact calculation of the probabilities, we'll need an exact equity of the scenarios that can occur. Here they are:
  1. You fold: That will leave you with 39,264 in chips against 44,548 and 186,187. The ICM calculation gives $128.29 equity.
  2. He folds to your push: 58,264 chips vs. 44,548 and 167,187. Equity: $140.19 for a $11.90 gain.
  3. You win showdown: 90,028 vs. 44,548 and 135,422. Equity: $156.38 for a $28.09 gain.
  4. You lose showdown: You bust out in 3rd. Prize: $87.82 for a $40.47 loss.

You said that you thought he might fold, but if we simplify and assume that he always calls the expected value of pushing over folding is given by
$68.56 * p - $40.47
where p is the probability that your hand wins in a showdown.

If he is indeed playing any two cards, p is 53% for an EV of -4 dollars. The break-even point is 59%, giving a pushing range like A4s+,A8o+,55+,K9s+,KTo+,JTs+.
I like the sound of your math a bit better.

When I use ICM considerations at all in a game at all, it is mainly by "feel".

Still, overall it is very close to what I came up with, even if I didn't arrive there "properly".
 
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 10:34 PM
(#7)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
well what do you know another bad beat story, its a super standard reship and you know it so why post this hand?? gawd what is there to analyse?
 
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Tue Jul 26, 2011, 12:54 AM
(#8)
TOO2COO's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,882
(Super-Moderator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
well what do you know another bad beat story, its a super standard reship and you know it so why post this hand?? gawd what is there to analyse?

If you not want to take part in the HA section then Do not, But do not come in here and talk down to anyone else.

This will not be Tolerated!!!
 
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Tue Jul 26, 2011, 01:51 AM
(#9)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oku_Ha_FooLs View Post
well what do you know another bad beat story, its a super standard reship and you know it so why post this hand?? gawd what is there to analyse?
It is hardly a "standard" re-ship.

It is a pretty close re-ship to be honest, even against a very wide range.

And as stated, to be completely honest, some of the hands you are complaining about ARE pretty "bad beat-ish", but some of the people posting them may not know WHY they are...

That's what there is to analyize.
 
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Tue Jul 26, 2011, 02:04 AM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
BTW...

I ran it thru that ICM calc again. Considering that the Big Stack Bully will play a 100% range, and then shove any bet, this is the call range it gives:

Call Hands: 55+, A5s+, A8o+, K9s+, KJo+, QJs (15.99%)
Bubble Hands: A4s, KTo, QTs (1.51%)
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 04:00 PM
(#11)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
look im sorry im not trying to sound like a jerk really im not, i just ntalk str8 up all the time but im working on it :/..........

I think it is a standard reship imo.........well i could be wrong bt iv learntmost of everything i know about reshipping/calling ranges/shoving range from my close m8 cactusman07 who is sickly good at these 180 mans

please accept my apologies everyone, i don't want to get know as the forum jack fruit lol... but really honestly sorry fresh starts k!
 
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Wed Jul 27, 2011, 05:29 PM
(#12)
rolo834's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,425
I was trying to follow along but I have a question where does the $68.56 figure come from on horrible68 post please?

ty
 

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