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Coin flip early stage of the tournament.

 
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Coin flip early stage of the tournament. - Tue Jul 05, 2011, 03:45 AM
(#1)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 04:06 AM
(#2)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
I'm playing The Big $2.20 tournament. For the most part I've been playing pretty tight- conservative. I receive KQs, usually at this stage I would fold it but so many players are loose and play bad, I decide that this hand would stand pretty well against their range but at the same time I didn't want to risk too much, so I just raised 2bb. Everyone folds the BB calls. Flop comes- Qh5c2c, I have top pair, the BB checks, seems pretty safe. I make the standard value bet about 2/3rds the pot, then all of a sudden the BB just shoves. Now at this tournament, I've seen a lot of players do this, shoving with marginal hands and chasing, so I didn't give him too much credit. The only hands that could beat me would be AA, KK, QQ, AQ, and neither of them seemed likely, cause most of them time I assumed that he would have 3bet preflop. I was getting 2 to 1 and I assumed that he had top pair with mediocre kicker. So I decided to call. Apparently he also had a flush draw. But even so, this is a coin clip situation- me being a 52% favorite. Do you think that it was the right call, knowing that It's a coin flip AND getting 2 to 1 odds at this stage of the tournament? or perhaps this type of situation is more suitable at a later stage where your stack is about 17BB?
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 09:12 AM
(#3)
Beau Nur's Avatar
Since: Dec 2010
Posts: 1
Firstly I am just slightly better than a break even player. BE WARNED
Secondly I did not work the math out exactly, I did it just like I would if I were playing i.e. close enough is good enough.

The way I see it, in the BB he can have any 2 cards. You bet and he calls, so he likes what he has.
Possible 2 small pair, suited connectors, Axo, Some K's and Q's probably thrown in.

After flop he checks and you bet, he then shoves. My head would be going "DANGER DANGER DANGER". He has a monster or nothing. ( as an aside I always err on the side of caution. People do not bluff as much as I think they do.)

Small pocket pairs like 2's or 5's are in his range, Suited connectors are in his range, so he could have clubs, perhaps the Ac, this gives him a backdoor straight as well as the flush draw.
AK, AJ and AT also hive him the backdoor straight, all cards it is possible he has in his range.

So I think you are not in the best of shape here. If he has a set, you are doing it tough from here on in, if he is on a draw to a flush, he has 9 outs or about 36% to win.

If he has connectors like 3 4 he has 8 outs or about 32% to win

If he needs runner runner - you have done well, but unlikely he does not have some kind of made hand. I acknowledge it may be worse that what you hold.

Options - Fold or call.
You still have more than 20 BB if I fold

If you call it costs 2552 to win about 5700, that's slightly more than 2 to 1, so with what he could have if he is on a draw then its about the right odds. However add that to the fact he might have a set or a bigger pair (although unlikely) I think it is a fairly easy fold.

Make a note on him and pick a better spot to catch him out.
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 10:38 AM
(#4)
Horrible68's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
I b4 the experts.

I think it's close, and it could easily be wrong. Most of the time I've looked up players who check/raised all-in they had something more than top pair. You didn't do much to narrow his range pre-flop. Let's give him a range of any set, any two pair, any overpair, top pair/good kicker, top pair/flush draw, any nut flush draw, any OESD. That makes you only slightly better than a 2:1 dog (34.5%). If you think he would play more draws, it looks a bit better, but who's to say that he would check/raise semi-bluff a draw at all? If we take out the pure draws you're a 3:1 dog.

I have vowed not to go bust with top pair/top kicker and top pair/good kicker as much as I did. Hands like this is one of the reasons. I think it's a fold.

Last edited by Horrible68; Tue Jul 05, 2011 at 10:39 AM.. Reason: Fixed typo
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 12:05 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
The only hands that could beat me would be AA, KK, QQ, AQ, and neither of them seemed likely, cause most of them time I assumed that he would have 3bet preflop
Way off... you're not including middle or bottom set, nor flush draws and pair+fd (his actual holding). Your equity against this range is more like 3-1 dog. Pair+flush draw should be a strong part of your consideration here as the top flop card is not in the flush suit, meaning he can hold top pair+FD, a hand most players will c/r all in with in this spot.

Board: Qh 5c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.546% 18.22% 07.33% 7033 2830.50 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 74.454% 67.12% 07.33% 25916 2830.50 { QQ+, 55, 22, AcKc, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, KQs, KcJc, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, AQo, KQo }
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 07:15 PM
(#6)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
k, so would you consider folding in this situation? At this stage do you usually avoid a coin flip situation or it really depends on the player and there's nothing wrong with calling or shoving a coin flip? Would you say that this is an awful flop texture for me? How would you play the hand?
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 08:23 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
-I have no problem at all taking a coin flip on a 26 bb stack, if the goal is to win the tournament. You're not in a coinflip situation though when you get the money in, you're likely a solid dog unless the villain is just a complete spaz. As to the 2nd part of the question I would always rather be the shover instead of the caller when my tournament life is going on the line, but again on this stack size I'l take flips (again not a question that relates well to this actual hand, as you're probably not close to a coin flip on the flop)

-Flop texture, I'd say is pretty good for you, right up until the villain check-raise jams. His range is going to be pretty strong on this board texture usually (again unless he's a spaz or a big bluffer).

-I don't know how I'd play it, you haven't given any info on this specific table or the opponents, or this villain. Depending on the table make up etc I might play it a bunch of different ways.
 
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Tue Jul 05, 2011, 09:37 PM
(#8)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
k, thanks, Then I guess the most probable decision is to fold. I had no information on this opponent, only that he played a few hands. I just thought that him shoving was a donk move and that he didn't have much. Thanks for your input.
 

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