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TT three way.

 
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TT three way. - Wed Jul 06, 2011, 04:09 AM
(#1)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 04:34 AM
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andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
So, I'm playing The Big $2.20 tournament again. I've been playing tight- conservative, getting a decent amount of low to mid pair, raising 2.2bb and missing the flop- folding. Through a continuation of missing the flop or being re-raised shoved, therefore folding, I've mellowed down to 20bb. Now I receive a pair of tens, so I make a standard 2bb raise because I'm in late position and I don't want all of them to fold. SB reraises and BB calls, my first instinct was to fold, but then I start thinking, This has happened to me numerous times and I folded in the past at this table, so I'm guessing that's what SB is doing with a mediocre hand- hoping I would fold. The BB is very likely to have a premium hand (range: 99+, AQ+.). Obviously I can't just call, I have to shove or fold. If I was to shove they're very likely to call. So I actually had implied odds of about 3 to 1. Against SB range and BB range I have 35% equity with 3 to 1 odds- that's sick odds. They only have 32% equity. I decided shoving would be the correct decision. Would you say that my thinking is correct or at least on the right track?
I would love to hear how you would have played the hand and how you would have analyzed it.

Last edited by andrei17731; Wed Jul 06, 2011 at 04:51 AM..
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 06:15 AM
(#3)
Horrible68's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 16
Could he have 99? It's not exactly a premium hand (Sklansky group 3), and it's a big part of your equity. If we take it out your equity is 28%. Closer, but still enough for 3:1. If one of them folds that puts dead money in the pot and improves your equity, so I still think you're good.

I think I would have folded, putting the BB on something like JJ+, but your read is obviously right. (He's calling a 4-bet with AQo? Really?)
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 08:15 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
So, I'm playing The Big $2.20 tournament again. I've been playing tight- conservative, getting a decent amount of low to mid pair, raising 2.2bb and missing the flop- folding. Through a continuation of missing the flop or being re-raised shoved, therefore folding, I've mellowed down to 20bb. Now I receive a pair of tens, so I make a standard 2bb raise because I'm in late position and I don't want all of them to fold. SB reraises and BB calls, my first instinct was to fold, but then I start thinking, This has happened to me numerous times and I folded in the past at this table, so I'm guessing that's what SB is doing with a mediocre hand- hoping I would fold. The BB is very likely to have a premium hand (range: 99+, AQ+.). Obviously I can't just call, I have to shove or fold. If I was to shove they're very likely to call. So I actually had implied odds of about 3 to 1. Against SB range and BB range I have 35% equity with 3 to 1 odds- that's sick odds. They only have 32% equity. I decided shoving would be the correct decision. Would you say that my thinking is correct or at least on the right track?
I would love to hear how you would have played the hand and how you would have analyzed it.
1) Min raise pre = BAD.
TT will see at least 1 over card on the flop over 60% of the time.
So you really do NOT want 'em calling you all that often...and you definately do not want both blinds calling.

The "problem" with the 2.25x and raises is that they lay good odds to the BB, and really should only be used as a "standard" raise when you are at a table of very aware, very disciplined players who can fold to a raise just BECAUSE it is a raise.

Besides: as a button raiser, there is a lot more of a chance the blinds will "defend", especially if you make your raise small.

I'd suggest using a 3x raise as a "standard", because the only hands that make a raise "valid" are the big pockets. BUT...if you raise on big pockets, and 3x other times, you become read-able. so I'd stick with 3x until you reach the final table, or KNOW you are at a table of disciplined players.

2) TT is a very WEAK 4BET hand, and is very suspect for calling a 3BET.

Pre-flop, when you get 3bet pretty solidly by the SB, and then when the BB CALLS, what do you expect to be in their hands? If the answer is that BOTH OF 'EM are likely to hold anything down to the 94s the BB called on (what a silly call btw!), then your 4BET is pretty good. If that is not the answer, then after "only" raising , you probably should have mucked.

Remember: 1 player might bluff at you on a 3Bet, but when there is another caller in the mix, chances are at least 1 of 'em does have a good hand...and more often than not that good hand will be BETTER than TT.

So...

I cannot say I "like" the way you played this, mainly because you did not give reads on the opponents. If you had specific reads to show 'em both to be very VERY loose/aggro-fish, then your play improves, but you ended up with about the BEST you could hope for here: a race.

If your stack were shorter, say 10 or 12 BB, and/or THEIR stacks were bigger (on the order of 30 to 50 BB each), then you might have had reaosn to believe they were "pressuring" you, and you can make the stand much easier. But in this spot you put in a small amount of your stack, ran into some pretty big aggression by players who had a LOT to lose by being highly aggressive against you. that bodes ill for a hand like TT...

I think you;d have been better served folding way 2BB here, and living to fight another day.
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 05:01 PM
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andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
Well, in general at this stage of a $2.20 tournament, players are going to play bad wouldn't wouldn't you say? I mean it only costs $2.20 to play, so wouldn't you say that there are a lot of amateur's playing? and that you shouldn't give them too much credit, therefore you can loosen up a bit and make plays like the one I made? I mean this happened to me through out the whole tournament- me raising, i get reraised or shoved, what am I supposed to do.
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 06:28 PM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrei17731 View Post
Well, in general at this stage of a $2.20 tournament, players are going to play bad wouldn't wouldn't you say? I mean it only costs $2.20 to play, so wouldn't you say that there are a lot of amateur's playing? and that you shouldn't give them too much credit, therefore you can loosen up a bit and make plays like the one I made? I mean this happened to me through out the whole tournament- me raising, i get reraised or shoved, what am I supposed to do.
You can also say: "any idiot can wake up with AA", right?

There is one pretty universal "tell" in poker: When a person has a GOOD HAND (one he is pretty sure is best), at some point he will bet or raise.

The biggest thing you should be aware of is that "poor" players (generally) will play too many hands.

They will also tend to have a skewed idea of what a "strong" hand is.

One thing you CAN say is that they (generally) have CALLING as their "default setting", not raising. This is because they tend to play with a weak reasoning process that tells them "any 2 can win", and they feel their "discipline" comes in the form of tossing away the most heinous of their holdings.

This means poor players will tend to toss their pure trash (84o, 93s, 74o), RAISE their "strong hands" (AJs, AQo, AK, pp 88+), and CALL on their marginal hands which they feel are "too good" to fold (KJo, QJs, JT, A9/AT). Please note: I do NOT say the perceived "strong" range by poor players is truly "strong"; merely that THEY believe it to be.

So unlike when you are playing with a knowledgeable opponent, versus the poor palyer you MUST credit them (when they 3Bet raise you) with some sort of pretty "decent" hand. the "trick" for you is to use your observations to effectively "define" how WEAK his "strong" hands are likely to be.

The range I defined above, pp 8+, AJ+ (s/o), will yeild a 50.8% equity for him, and for many weak players this would actually be a pretty WIDE 3Bet range. You do define your perceptions of the BB's calling range (99+, AQ+), so let's put ALL the hands into an equity calulator:

Range A (initial 3Bettor): 31.8%
Range B (BB caller): 37.6%
YOU: 30.6%

From just a chip equity standpoint (disregarding Tourney equity considerations), you "need" about 33% equity to risk the chance of losing an all-in for the chance to triple.

Factoring in that you min raised at a cost of 2BB to your 21BB+ stack, saw the action ahead, and could elect to "soldier on" still with a 19BB stack, means you REALLY need to have more along the line of 45% to 55% equity versus the combined ranges of these opponents to make a "stand" on this size stack worthwhile.

SOME of that equity will tend to come in the form of "fold equity", but seeing that the initial 3Bettor put in about 15% of his stack on his 3Bet, and the BB CALLED nearly that amount form his stack, means your FE is probably pretty LOW versus the normal run of micro palyers. Plus, the 3Bet and the call bloat the pot, and makes your remaining 1200 or so have even LESS "leverage" here; this is because a shove by you, when you make it, will lay at least 2.4 to 1 for a call. So at BEST I'd estimate you have around a 5% to 10% chance to get BOTH to fold with your shove, and even that might be generous. this menas in a pure card sense, you probably need a hand which you feel has at least a 35% to 40% chance of winning in this spot to play.

TT simply does not have that chance, and you should have folded it cheaply rather than call.

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jul 06, 2011 at 06:58 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 07, 2011, 05:07 AM
(#7)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
To your last statement, I shoved not called. And I checked the play with my pokerstove calculator I got a slight difference:

Me: (TT+, AK) 40%
SB: (88+, AJ+) 27%
BB: (99+, AQ+) 31%.

Does the order matter, in the calculator as to whose player 1,2, or 3. I realized that you just put in TT but I put in my range, or that would be incorrect? I knew I had little to no fold equity so I didn't really count on it. Tell me what you think? Also, I'm getting 3 to 1. Doesn't that play a huge factor? I also, reviewed the percentage with JJ on the pokerstove calculator against their rage and got 35%. So would you say that I would be able to make this play with JJ+? (QQ- 40%, KK- 54%, AA- 72%)

Last edited by andrei17731; Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 07:00 AM..
 
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Thu Jul 07, 2011, 12:08 PM
(#8)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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You do not hold TT+ or AK though...

You hold EXACTLY TT. You see the cards in front of you, so you "know" that.

By inputting the info into pokerstove as you did, you are "assuming" the opponents will "know" you are on that tight a range, and that they will act "correctly" (based on their hand strength) 100% of the time, to derive the full 40% equity your calc shows. In short, you;ve given yourself MAXIMUM FOLD EQUITY in your calc.

That is pretty unrealistic...

(don't sweat it, if you are using poker stove against opponents who do consider what YOU might hold to make their decision, what you did is "valid" as a way to guage FE. But assigning yourself THAT TIGHT a range, after you only min raised the button, is pretty un-realistic. Unless of course you;ve shown 'em a couple times that you will ONLY do that "large" and if they are aware enough to notice!)

First:
You button raised small, for an amount that was not necessarily "committing".
This alone will tend to widen your range well beyond the TT+/AK range you assign for yourself as their "read".
Sure, you MIGHT be an "uber-nit", and get that kind of "respect", but hands down to 66 tends to have pretty CLOSE to the same equity when all in as your TT here, so you must consider the opponents will have you on a wider range than you assign for their "read" of your shove.

Second:
The 3Bet by the SB represents a pretty good amount of his stack (20%+).
That large an amount being willingly put in on a 3Bet makes the chance of him folding a lot LESS.

Third:
The BB CALLER is calling a raise that is right around 20% of his stack as well.
Per the Gap concept, you should "expect" the BB has a STRONGER range than the SB 3Bettor, and you only assign him a marginally stronger range in your calc. His stack size AND his likely stronger range, both means there is little chance he is folding.

(don't let the fact the moron called off about 80% of his stack with 94s fool you, if you KNOW he plays like that, then put it in the post and let's us factor it into the analysis; you didn;t though, so we must go on what is more "normal").

So...

There really is no way around it.
TT is a hand that "prefers" a SMALLER pre-flop pot, not a large one, IF YOU CAN PLAY POST FLOP.
It can be a valid "stand hand", but if you elect to open for an amount which does not lead logically to an all-in by you, then you should play it as a small pre-flop pot hand.

Had you only seen the SB 3Bettor, then fine- range him and stand if the answer comes out you have a good shot at being ahead. but when the BB calls along, the chances of you holding the "best" hand go WAY DOWN, as do the chances of you shoving folding out BOTH opponents.

Had you raised a LARGER amount of your stack, instead of a min raise, then your decision would have been a pretty simple one of standing no matter what...at that point folding would have been WORSE for your tourney chances than taking a possibly "small" underneath position that you actually got.

But with just a min raise not representing a "committment level" for your stack (yet), there is no NEED for you to go here on "only" a chip equity "break even" hand, or potentially as a big under-dog.

...and YES, the fact you are getting 3 to 1 does play a big factor.

But a bigger factor that it plays is you must consider that with 2 players in your hand strength must be GREATER in order to realize that 3 to 1 shot. TT is a hand that is rarely very far "ahead" in these spots it is probably facing a net 3 over cards most times here at least), and if it is "behind" it has little chance at all to improve.

Also playing a bigger factor is the price you've paid to enter the pot. If that amount is a large portion of your stack, then you should feel "committed" and go for it. But you only min raised to open the betting; even being short, this was NOT a truly committing amount for your stack. This small "investment" requires you to look for MORE than a "tiny" edge vs the chance of being a big dog, to be worth busting for the chance to triple...see?

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:21 PM..
 
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Thu Jul 07, 2011, 03:53 PM
(#9)
andrei17731's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 160
k, thanks for your input, it was very interesting discussing it with you.
 

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