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Analyze this hand pls

 
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Analyze this hand pls - Wed Jul 06, 2011, 02:48 PM
(#1)
pipergsm's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26
Hi everybody,
here's another hand I just played.
It threw me out of the PSO league tournament.

PSO league 07 july 2011
1134 players left
BB 300
I'm on the button
my hand : AT o and I limp
Flop : 8s Ts Ad
giving me AA TT but flush draw on board
Pot : +3000$
my stack : +3000$
everybody checks
I go all in
Big stack calls and gets a flush on the turn
I lose

Was I wrong to go all in? Too risky?

Your comments please!
Thank you!
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 02:54 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
** Moved **
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 03:43 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
with top 2 pair, you want to bet it, but to push over 10BB's into the pot without knowing you have the best hand is normally a bad idea, as you are not short-stacked. I'd have made about a pot sized bet, then re-evaluated after the next card.

Also, since this was a PSO tourney, you need to play these more conservatively until you get to where you are at + points for the tournament, then get more aggressive. With the BB at 300, you're normally going to be getting a negative total if you bust... which is what you need to avoid if at all possible.
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 04:03 PM
(#4)
pipergsm's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26
Thanks for the reaction!
10 BB (all in) is a lot indeed, but that was the size of the pot (+3000$) !!!
Would you than advise to make a 1/2 pot sized bet instead?
that seems a bit week, doen't it?
Add to that the fact that, mathematically, there is a 65% chance that the flush
doesn't come through!
I really wonder if the decission to go all in (pot sized bet) was wrong.

let me know what you think!
all comments are appreciated!
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 06:06 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
if the blinds are 300 and you limp, then the pot should not be 3k, it should be much less than that.
With how much to bet, I'd go either pot or 2-3BB, whichever is less.

Also, the flush is not all you have to worry about. They also could be betting a set or straight draws too.
 
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Wed Jul 06, 2011, 11:46 PM
(#6)
pipergsm's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26
8 limpers (8 x 300) + the ante should give a pot of about 3000

right so, set or straight draw are posiible.
however, anyone holding set 8 or set T (A is highly unlikely because of the limping pre flop)
should have bet the flop, not check (remember, I'm on the button !), unless he has 888
and is afraid of TTT off course (I would never just "check" a set!).
Anyway, since there was no bet, this seemed very unlikely to me.
A straight draw would not justify calling a +pot sized bet, because the
pot-odds aren't good enough (open ended is a very close one, I admit !).
And even if they did call, both the flush-draw and the open ended straight draw give me
+64% chance of winning (= the chance they don't come through).

Is this enough reason not to bet or to make just a little bet (say 3BB) and thus risking
several players to call and losing it all on the river (leaving myself with only 7BB)?

Please keep on giving your opinion!
I value every reaction/discussion (I'm still not sure about this)
 
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Thu Jul 07, 2011, 01:17 AM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
you're not at 64%.... worst case for a draw (they have 9 10 sp) they have 15 outs, which actually makes them about a 60% favorite against you.
I agree that a set should bet and if I had one I would but, due to the number of draws on the board and 8 in the pot may scare them off from making a bet on the flop (or they may think they're trapping someone).

Also, the pot odds will be reliant on exactly how many people stay in the hand. The more that stay, the lower the % that calling a bet will be in relation to how much is then in the pot.

If it was me, I still think that there are too many people in the pot to shove when you can be behind in the hand. You need to bet, to see where you're at, but shoving into a multi-way pot with that many draws can get you into trouble quick..... and you've got plenty of chips to find a better situation.

Even if you bet 3BB and had someone else shove and you fold, you still have 7BB left and can use those to get to positive points.... which is the first goal in a PSO tourney (get positive league points).
 
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Thu Jul 07, 2011, 01:53 AM
(#8)
pipergsm's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26
Thanks for your reactions!
The 60% you refer to would be if someone had the flush+straight draw at the same time,
which I believe is very unlikely ( but not impossible, I admit ! ).

However, I've given this a lot of thought, and I've come to the conclusion that it was
indeed a stupid move to go all in, despite having 2 toppair (+ full house draw) !!!
Especially since I was on the button and had the chance to see the turn cheaply (or free!).
As you say, with a stack of 7BB ( or even 10, if I check ! ), I can still go on and end up
in the positive points ( if the draws come through ).
It might have been different, had there not been a flush draw on the board, but as it was,
I was wrong (stupid!) to go all in.
I'll certainly learn from this, and hope others will do the same ( not too many, or the competition
gets too tough, lol ! ).
 

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