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opinions - Fri Jul 08, 2011, 11:25 AM
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
just tell me your opinion because this was an easy win for me

PokerStarsspel #64293860626: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 08/07/2011 16:34:12 CET [08/07/2011 10:34:12 ET]
Tafel 'Veniakaverin II' 9-max Plaats #9 is de button
Plaats 1: raise2AA ($9.65 in chips)
Plaats 2: CashDamage ($11.20 in chips)
Plaats 4: melita1975 ($16.14 in chips)
Plaats 6: alpin 1313 ($25.35 in chips)
Plaats 7: HIPA1 ($21.40 in chips)
Plaats 8: 77wopke77 ($22.89 in chips)
Plaats 9: ibanezzzz ($9.27 in chips)
raise2AA: zet small blind $0.10
CashDamage: zet big blind $0.25
dub555: zit uit
Gedeeld aan 77wopke77 [7c 7h]
melita1975: raiset $0.25 naar $0.50
alpin 1313: foldt
HIPA1: foldt
77wopke77: callt $0.50
ibanezzzz: foldt
raise2AA: foldt
CashDamage: foldt
*** FLOP *** [6h 7d Qd]
melita1975: bet $0.75
77wopke77: raiset $0.75 naar $1.50
melita1975: callt $0.75
*** TURN *** [6h 7d Qd] [7s]
melita1975: bet $1.25
77wopke77: callt $1.25
*** RIVER *** [6h 7d Qd 7s] [Tc]
melita1975: bet $1.25
77wopke77: raiset $7.21 naar $8.46
melita1975: foldt
De niet-gecallde bet ($7.21) is geretourneerd aan 77wopke77
77wopke77 won $8.90 van pot
77wopke77: laat hand niet zien
Totale pot $9.35 | Rake $0.45
Board [6h 7d Qd 7s Tc]
Plaats 1: raise2AA (small blind) foldde voor de Flop
Plaats 2: CashDamage (big blind) foldde voor de Flop
Plaats 4: melita1975 foldde op de River
Plaats 6: alpin 1313 foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
Plaats 7: HIPA1 foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
Plaats 8: 77wopke77 won ($8.90)
Plaats 9: ibanezzzz (button) foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
Fri Jul 08, 2011, 01:52 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
River bet is a bit too large tbh...

You got an EP min raiser when you hold a very decent "fit or fold" set mining hand.
Calling is pretty "cheap" for you in terms of what you MIGHT win if you flop a set, and he holds the "normal" EP min raise hand.

I like the fact you took the shot, as long as there is not any extremely aggressive players behind you who might pop hard and price you out of a cheap flop.

You flop middle set.
EP raiser leads into you for 75c, which is a bit under half pot.
You raise the minimum, making it $1.50 to go.
He calls.

While the board is semi-wet, it is not all THAT "bad" versus a typical EP min raiser.
The only draws likely here are "big broadway" d's in most cases, since it is rare to see an EP min raise holding something like 45 or 89.
The only real "threat" to be ahead is QQ, but that is such a small part of his range worrying about it now is playing in fear.

Since the normal EP min raiser has a big pp, or a big un-paired hand, I reall like your small-ish value raise in this spot. It is going to get called quite a lot of the time by AQ/KQ/JJ even, and it does not give the potential AKd (or something like that) a totally free card.

Good job.

Now things are REALLY nice for you with quads!

EP raiser is STILL betting into you, even after you raised the flop, so you GOTTA give him a solid chance of holding KK+ here.

Of course it also raises the chance that he does hold QQ, but QQ has actually gone down a bit (in my estimation), because if he boated why would he lead AGAIN when you MIGHT be just flush drawing? Knowing how likely QQ is still is highly dependant upon your reads of him though...

I really like your flat now though...
If he DOES hold QQ, you can be sure he is betting again, so why not give him the chance?
Also, if he holds K+ and a d does not come, he probably leads AGAIN.
I love the fact you give him the chance to do so, and do not shut him out of making a mistake with "just" an over-pair hand here.

Nicely done.

Tc is pretty much a "blank". It isn't helpping you a whole lot (unless you hold 89), and it probably didn't help him a whole lot.

This guy leads AGAIN, but the lead this time is very small in relation to the pot.
The $1.25 bet on the turn he made was about 30% of the pot (a bit under), and could be a value bet, or a blocker bet.
By the River though, $1.25 is only 18% of the pot, and pretty much is ONLY viable as a blocker bet (since you have the quads and know he CAN'T have 'em). You gotta key to this when you decide to bet the river for value with the nuts...

IF he had a boat, especially Qs full, he would have paid the bet you made.
But if he held a boat, ANY BOAT, wouldn't he have tried extracting MORE value from you on his river bet?
It IS his "last chance" to do so afterall...

Now you also know that he has bet every street, and you have called or raised every street.
If he feels that you might do that with a busted flush draw, might not a $1.25 river bet be "enough" to get you to fold?
If he feels you are on a top pair hand only, and he holds KK, might that $1.25 extract "thin" value from you, without putting him at too much risk?

With all that said, you come over him for a VERY LARGE bet on the river. Yuck.

All indications were he held something in his hand with SOME value, and he was trying to "block you" by the river. This probably means he has no intention of calling a BIG BET by you, since he is probably "aware" the hand he holds might be beaten by what you;ve stuck around with all this time.

Personally, unless this guy is the SEVERE "non believer" type (someone who will convince themselves to call big bets because of the chance the opponent holds a busted draw), I think a raise to around $3 to $3.75 would have had a much better chance of being called.

Of course there is the chance that this guy was on the busted draw (most likely AKeither sutied in d or not), and he wouldn't have called ANYTHING (in which case his $1.25 river bet is pretty dumb), but all signs here point to him perhaps being willing to call a small raise, but not a big one. When you have quads and the nuts, you gotta bet what he might call most often...


Last edited by JDean; Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 01:57 PM..
Fri Jul 08, 2011, 02:30 PM
77wopke77's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 482
most helpfull again +1 tnx
Fri Jul 08, 2011, 02:57 PM
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
side note:

Zeebo's Theorem is NOT operable here, but it might be useful for you in quads hands in the future.

See this link: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/zeebo/

Zeebo's theorem states that your river bet WOULD be the "right bet" if you felt strongly the opponent did have a boat. As I noted in the reply I put up, I am not "sold" that he was boated, because his bet pattern was too weak.

but if he did have one...you were getitng called on the big river bet almsot for sure!

That might help you in the future to extract more value when the opponent 3bets or 4bets into your quads...not fires out a little piss ant blocker bet.
Fri Jul 08, 2011, 05:00 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
I agree with JD. Instead of pushing on the river, you really want to bet the maximum that you think they will call.... so you can get extra value from it.
Wed Jul 27, 2011, 11:41 PM
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
I would say you played the hand well given there are draws on that flop i would prob raise bigger than minimum tho for value from random draws he may have...... the raise on the river could use some adjusting i would say something like 4-5$ hmm something that he could afford 2 call off with the BOTTOM of his range otherwise nicely playd

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