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Your thoughts....

 
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Your thoughts.... - Sat Jul 09, 2011, 04:10 PM
(#1)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Obviously, I can't post a Stars hand history, but, I don't mind posting a hand I played elsewhere. If I could play on Stars, I wouldn't play anywhere else.

The villian is a hyperagressive LAG who I have some stats on. I watched him make a 3X raise from UTG +2 and take his J4o hand to showdown when the board came 44Q73 with 3 diamonds. Unfortunately for the poor sod, his opponent was holding the AdQd.

He then proceeded to call an UTG rasie from the BB. He check/raised the UTG raiser and when he got called, he bet a bit over half the pot on the turn. UTG shoved and he laid it down.

Then it was my turn, here's the hand from my HEM with stats...try not to laugh!

Buy-in $5.50 Unlimited rebuys and an addon.

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 *****
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, July 09, 02:32:53 ET 2011
Table 3000 Guaranteed Rebuys Addon (36963557) (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $10287.00 USD ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 1.9, Hands: 1558
Seat 2: Player2 ( $13415.00 USD ) - VPIP: 37, PFR: 11, 3B: 7, AF: 1.5, Hands: 38
Seat 3: Player3 ( $10835.00 USD ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 5, 3B: 5, AF: 1.3, Hands: 98
Seat 4: Player4 ( $2555.00 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 87
Seat 5: Player5 ( $9233.00 USD ) - VPIP: 29, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 10.0, Hands: 58
Seat 6: Player6 ( $10671.00 USD ) - VPIP: 63, PFR: 31, 3B: 0, AF: 9.0, Hands: 16
Seat 7: Player7 ( $15118.00 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 24
Seat 9: Player9 ( $8978.00 USD ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 6, 3B: 3, AF: 6.5, Hands: 107
Hero posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player2 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player3 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player4 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player5 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player6 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player7 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Player9 posts ante of [$25.00 USD].
Hero posts small blind [$150.00 USD].
Player2 posts big blind [$300.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qc Kh ]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [$1113.00 USD]
Player7 folds
Player9 folds
Hero calls [$963.00 USD]
Player2 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Td, Qs, 9h ]
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$1817.00 USD]
Hero calls [$1817.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$7716.00 USD]
Hero calls [$7332.00 USD]
Hero shows [Qc, Kh ]
Player6 shows [6c, 6s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jd ]
Player6 wins $384.00 USD
Hero wins $21024.00 USD from main pot

I think he'd have folded had I bet into him here. I figured I had the best hand and since he likes to bet, I thought it was best to let him enjoy his last hand of the tournament.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Sun Jul 10, 2011 at 02:05 PM..
 
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Sat Jul 09, 2011, 07:47 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
PRE-FLOP:
Nothing wrong with your flat here.
KQo stands to be ahead of a 63% range by a pretty wide margin, but it is NOT the sort of hand that really "likes" a big pot.
Since a 3Bet by you has little chance to fold him out pr, flatting in is a nice way to see what comes, without bloating the pot un-necessarily.

FLOP:
You hit top pair, 2nd kicker, but the board is already holding a possible straight.
Normally, this is the kind of flop that holding a top pair hand with a draw to the J you would WANT to lead bet, but...
Since his check/raise, lead, fold hand shows he WILL tend towards aggressive chip moves without holding the "goods", I have no real issue with you NOT making any kind of standard lead. Consider...

A standard lead out would be for around half pot, or about 1200 to 1300 chips, and a standard 3Bet of that would be to around 3750 to 4k.
On a board such as this, you'd really not want to call off 40% of your stack in "hopes" he hadn't out flopped you, and you'd really not feel comfortable jamming in on this board with just a 1 pair hand.
So while check/calling about 18% of your stack is not best versus MOST players, versus the hyper aggressive ones it is not a bad idea to "let" themselves possibly bluff off chips, while still leaving room to fold if a really scary card comes.

Good check/call.

TURN:
A pretty "blank" 2c comes, and you check.
Villain then jams.

His shove over your check is a pretty "correct" move by him in a pot this size, if he is going to bet again at all. The pot had grown to a bit over 6200, and if he makes a half pot stab he really cannot fold to "conserve" the last 30% or so of his stack. This is an important fact to note when you are facing this pot over bet...

The reaosn why it is important to note is that if his shove here represented a "non-standard" bet, it would introduce a "dis-connect" in his generally GOOD sizing of his aggressive amounts. Yes, this guy appears to be very over aggressive, but his "mistakes" come in the form of trying too often to push people off hands, NOT in mis-sizing of the bets when he does try...see?

So since this is an "understandable bet", a "normal" one if you will, that will sometimes be a bluff and sometimes be a better hand than your top pair/2nd kicker, you can use your "normal" line of reasoning for your decision. Had he bet SMALLER, I'd credit him more with strength greater than yours, see?

So...

You gotta fall back on normal reasoning, which says "why would a frequent bluffer, bet a 2 pair, set, or flopped straight for 1800 into a 2500 chip pot? Sure, he might want to deny draw odds, but his past patterns say it is more likely he is bluffing. If our K were much WEAKER, or if we did not have the benefit of a J coming to "save us" (possibly) if we ARE behind, we probably should not have called on the flop. Since we did call the flop, that blank turn didn't change much at all. We are still pretty much in the same spot we were in on the flop, only now we are playing for our tourney life...

End result of all this is that your CALL on the turn must be based upon what he MIGHT bet that is behind you, and what he might bet if he were ahead of you. He has shown such aggression that there is a wide range of things he will bet from behind, and while there is also an awful lot that is ahead of us, if we ARE behind we might still catch a J to save us. So without the chance of a J "saving" us from a mistake here we'd probably be a lot SAFER folding. With the J though, I'm taking the chance this frequent bluffer is just following thru on his wild ways and calling.

So good call...and nice pot.
 
Old
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Sun Jul 10, 2011, 11:59 AM
(#3)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Against a sane opponent, I'm likely going to take a different line with top pair 2nd kicker in that spot. Not against this guy.

I had a solid read that this guy was going to stack off with whatever he started the hand with and if he had big hand, he had a big hand. I knew when I made the call preflop that if I hit a K or a Q we were playing for stacks. Hitting the Q, I could have tossed the K over my shoulder and played without it.

If I bet out, he's either folding or unloading. I'm almost certain that if I check it to him, he's not going to be able to resist and he'll barrel until I resist. So I let him and refrained. I was sure my hand was good, the J on the end was nice, but never entered the thought process. That hand gave me a substantial chip lead, I finished 2nd in the tournament and raked a $590.00 profit. Sometimes you have to go with your read win or lose.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Sun Jul 10, 2011 at 12:32 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 10, 2011, 01:32 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Biggest difference between what I wrote, and what you said actually happened, is about that J...

To me, the "risk" of tangling with someone THIS wide and THIS aggressive, on a board this coordinated it just too severe with a 1 pair hand, and ONLY a 1 pair hand. But when you toss in the CHANCE of spiking a J to "save" you if you are "wrong" (and he had flopped a set or a straight), that does a LOT toward tilting it towards a call...

I'm not saying that it is tilted toward a call because I am "relying" on those Js as outs, I do think there is a pretty good chance I won;t NEED 'em or I wouldn't even be thinking of a call here, BUT IF I AM WRONG, if he does hold a better hand than my KQ, the J's "save me" from anything he has better than my hand right now...see?

It is kind of like jumping out of an airplane into a foggy night...

You are pretty SURE you are low enough that you will land safely in the ocean below.
But since your altimeter is broken, you cannot be positive...

In the back of the plane, you can choose to jump right now, or take 2 minutes to put on an old WW2 Vintage parachute which MIGHT work, or might not work. If you had MORE info here, like 2 seconds before the plane caught fire you had hit a tree with your wing and heard the leaves rustle, you might not CARE about putting on the parachute, but isn't it still a lot nicer to jump WITH the parachute just in case?

That is a "just in case" J out.
 
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Sun Jul 10, 2011, 01:49 PM
(#5)
MSgtBakes's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 38
Spot on! I got lucky, my opponent this time was exactly as insane as I thought. Had the turn been a 6, then I look like an idiot. Had my opponent been Player 2 in this case, I'm betting the flop and if I get called I'm probably done with it.

My thoughts on the turn were exactly this...if I'm wrong I'm out $15 bucks. If I'm right, I'm going to the final table with the chip lead and playing for the $950 on top. The call is the cheaper mistake.

Last edited by MSgtBakes; Sun Jul 10, 2011 at 01:57 PM..
 
Old
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Mon Jul 25, 2011, 05:17 PM
(#6)
Oku_Ha_FooLs's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 188
whats there to analyse? standard hand......
I would have thought you would be playing tighter tho in a rebuy and fold KQ pre........

ahh watever nice hand
 

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