Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Poker Education & Beginners Questions /

What are the chances of such a hand occurring ?

Old
Default
What are the chances of such a hand occurring ? - Sun Jul 10, 2011, 05:58 AM
(#1)
IonelG56's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 52
BronzeStar



I mean how often can we expect AA, KK, QQ and AK appear in one hand?
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 10, 2011, 06:18 AM
(#2)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Nice hand Seen a lot of aa / kk / qq / jj types but throw in that AK and pretty damn rare.

What I find most shocking is that the aces held
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 10, 2011, 02:41 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by IonelG56 View Post
I mean how often can we expect AA, KK, QQ and AK appear in one hand?
** Smart Ass Answer Warning **

It happened so the probability is 100%.
 
Old
Default
Sun Jul 10, 2011, 03:46 PM
(#4)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
** Smart Ass Answer Warning **

It happened so the probability is 100%.

rofl
 
Old
Default
Mon Jul 11, 2011, 05:02 AM
(#5)
IonelG56's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
I was wondering if someone can help me calculate that as I seem to be stuck in some calculations. I have calculated something, but I can't manage to include the fact that there are 4 of each card in my calculations so they are very imprecise.
From what I calculated there is a 37 out of100.000 probability of facing multiple larger pairs when holding QQ. But that also only accounts for the AA and KK, not the AK so I wonder if someone who knows this stuff better could help me out. It is more of a curiosity.
 
Old
Default
Tue Jul 12, 2011, 11:39 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by IonelG56 View Post
I was wondering if someone can help me calculate that as I seem to be stuck in some calculations. I have calculated something, but I can't manage to include the fact that there are 4 of each card in my calculations so they are very imprecise.
From what I calculated there is a 37 out of100.000 probability of facing multiple larger pairs when holding QQ. But that also only accounts for the AA and KK, not the AK so I wonder if someone who knows this stuff better could help me out. It is more of a curiosity.
Answer is: it depends.

Since you really do not "need" to know the chances of this crazy big card distribution happening to play good poker, asking that question is not going to help you much if you approach it stictly from the "math chances" of 3 monsters and the strongest drawing hand being there...

But if you want to RANGE The opponents, and then assess the likelihood of these hands being there as a function of the opponents' various ranges, that WILL help you assess your situation better...

So the important thing to note is that a small UTG raiser, with a CALLER, then a SHOVE by a stack which has a lot of "playability" (50+ BB), means the chances that there is not jsut 1 "big hand" here, but more than one goes WAY up.

How far it goes up though is a function of what these opponents have shown that they will do in the past...

In poker, what is, is. and as Joe noted, if it can happen, at some point it is gunna happen...

All YOU can do is use the info you have to the best of your ability to judge whether your QQ is viable here.

That's why the answer is "It depends".

See?
 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 13, 2011, 05:13 AM
(#7)
jf70's Avatar
Since: Feb 2009
Posts: 88
BronzeStar
Or better yet, it's irrelevent.

You couldn't have anticipated later callers. I'm not necessarily a fan of calling a shove with QQ, because even vs AK you're little better off than a coinflip - only AQ and lower pocket pairs are your friends.

But basically such a situation is so unlikely, so rare, that it's impossible to compensate (adjust) for the possibility of their occurence.

I call these "mirror" hands, where the outcome would have been the same regardless of who was holding which cards.
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 14, 2011, 08:45 AM
(#8)
IonelG56's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 52
BronzeStar
Thank you for you contributions JDean and jf70. They helped me a lot.
I also agree that you shouldn't call an all-in except in certain situations with QQ but this hand was played in the new version of the PSO and a lot of players at the table were donks that went all-in very often and with very bad cards so I decided to go for it. It turned out that this time they really had good hands. Plus if I would have known that a lot of players would have called I would have floped the queens.
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com